Pakistan forecasts inflation to remain in moderate 5.5-6.5 percent range

A shopkeeper waits for customers at a cloth market in Karachi, Pakistan, on November 24, 2025. (AFP/File)
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Updated 31 December 2025
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Pakistan forecasts inflation to remain in moderate 5.5-6.5 percent range

  • Finance Division report says robust remittance inflows, steady performance of IT, service sectors to cushion external pressures
  • Consumer inflation in Pakistan has significantly reduced over the years when it surged to a record high of 38 percent in May 2023

ISLAMABAD: Inflation is expected to remain in the moderate range of 5.5 to 6.5 percent for December, the Finance Division said in its Monthly Economic Outlook report on Wednesday. 

Pakistan reported inflation at 6.1 percent on a year-on-year basis in November as compared to 6.2 percent in October. Pakistan’s inflation rate rose to a record high of 38 percent in May 2023 on account of surging food and fuel costs as Islamabad scrapped subsidies as part of a financial deal agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 

“Inflation is projected to remain moderate, in the range of 5.5-6.5 percent in December, primarily reflecting base effect,” the report said. 

The Finance Division’s report said Pakistan’s economic outlook remains “positive,” driven by sustained growth in industrial activity due to continued momentum in textiles, automobiles, cement and food processing sectors. 

“Robust remittance inflows and steady performance in IT and services exports are likely to cushion external pressures,” the report said. 

The report said Pakistan’s current account recorded a surplus of $100 million while it posted a deficit of $812 million during the July-November period.

It said remittances increased by 9.3 percent to $16.1 billion in November, led by inflows from Saudi Arabia (24.2 percent) and the UAE (20.8 percent), while the net foreign direct investment inflows were recorded at $927.4 million during the same July to November period. 

It said Pakistan’s fiscal consolidation is expected to continue supporting macroeconomic stability, with government efforts in expenditure management, enhanced tax collection and structural reforms contributing to sustainable growth. 

“Overall, Pakistan’s economy is projected to maintain its positive momentum in the coming months, driven by industrial growth, improved governance, digitalization, and prudent macroeconomic management,” the report said.


At Islamabad conference, Pakistan pitches agriculture as next frontier for Chinese investment

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At Islamabad conference, Pakistan pitches agriculture as next frontier for Chinese investment

  • Hundreds of Chinese and Pakistani firms attended the event focusing on fertilizers, seeds, smart farming and irrigation techniques
  • PM Sharif urges Pakistani farmers, businesses and universities to engage with Chinese institutions and experts to modernize agriculture

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday pitched Pakistan’s agriculture sector as the next major frontier for Chinese investment, highlighting opportunities in agri-business, food processing and farming technologies.

The prime minister said this while addressing the Pakistan-China Agriculture Investment Conference, which brought together Chinese and Pakistani agriculturists, entrepreneurs, experts, academicians and government officials.

Hundreds of Chinese and Pakistani firms attended the event that focused on fertilizers, seed varieties, machinery, precision farming and smart irrigation systems, according to the organizers.

Sharif said China had never shied away from providing Pakistan with best possible expertise and technologies, and both sides had signed several memorandums of understanding (MoUs) at similar summits in Shandong and Beijing in last two years.

“I was very happy to express my satisfaction over the progress we are making in terms of converting these MOUs into agreements,” he said. “Today’s conference is a clear indication that Chinese business houses are more than willing to shake hands with Pakistani business houses.”

The conference was billed by Pakistan’s Ministry of National Food Security and Research as a platform for deepening bilateral agricultural ties and supporting broader economic engagement between the two countries.

Sharif called on Pakistani farmers, agribusinesses and universities to actively engage with Chinese institutions and experts to modernize the agriculture sector, which accounts for 24 percent of Pakistan’s GDP and employs over 37 percent of its labor force.

“Chinese experts are there to assist us and support us all the way to achieve this wonderful target [of becoming a surplus agricultural economy],” he said. “Now it’s up to us to generate this trade surplus through higher yields, comparative cost and, of course, highest quality.”

Pakistan and China have been expanding cooperation in agriculture under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor framework, with a focus on mechanization, high-yield seeds, livestock development and value-added food processing.

Officials say stronger agricultural ties could help Pakistan boost exports, ensure food security and create jobs, while offering Chinese companies access to a large farming market and new investment opportunities.

The prime minister noted that Pakistan’s policy rate was down to 10.5 percent down from 22 percent two years ago, exports were gradually increasing and macroeconomic indicators were stable.

“Now we have to move toward growth,” he said. “But then it requires solid, hard work, untiring efforts, blood and sweat. Without that, you will not be able to achieve your targets.”

The Pakistan-China Agriculture Investment Conference focused on technology transfer and joint ventures in farming, food processing and agricultural research.

“I would urge upon Pakistani farmers, Pakistani agri-houses, experts, professors, technicians, that please come forward and show your best to your [Chinese] brothers and sisters,” Sharif said.

“China is ready, ladies and gentlemen, to support Pakistan like always in the past. Let us make use of this opportunity. Let us stand up and accept this challenge and make Pakistan great through untiring efforts, through hard work.”