Egypt’s annual inflation rises to 16.8% in May

Egypt is working to stabilize an economy that has been strained by record inflation, a weakening currency, and rising debt. Shutterstock
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Updated 16 June 2025
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Egypt’s annual inflation rises to 16.8% in May

  • Analysis pointed to a renewed uptick in food prices and challenging base effects
  • Increase influenced by rising prices of pharmaceutical products and fresh fruits

RIYADH: Egypt’s annual urban headline inflation rate rose to 16.8 percent in May, up from 13.9 percent in April, driven primarily by continued non-food price pressures, according to official data.

Released by the Central Bank of Egypt, the analysis pointed to a renewed uptick in food prices and challenging base effects, as the same period last year saw negative inflation.

These inflation trends come as Egypt’s broader economic landscape continues to be shaped by both domestic and global pressures. The government is navigating a delicate recovery amid external shocks, ongoing structural reforms, and efforts to manage public debt. Despite signs of resilience in credit and growth, inflation remains a key concern for both policymakers and households.

This backdrop helps explain Moody’s February decision to affirm Egypt’s Caa1 long-term foreign and local currency ratings with a positive outlook, citing improved prospects for debt servicing.

It also aligns with the country’s reported real gross domestic product growth of 3.9 percent in the first half of the current fiscal year, a signal of economic resilience, according to Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly in May.

The newly released CBE report said: “The increase was particularly influenced by rising prices of pharmaceutical products and fresh fruits. Additionally, a moderate rise in inland transportation costs contributed to overall inflation, reflecting the second-round effects of April’s fuel price hike.”

It added: “Similarly, annual core inflation accelerated to 13.1 percent in May 2025 from 10.4 percent in April 2025. This increase reflects higher monthly core inflation, registering 1.6 percent in May 2025 compared to 1.2 percent in April 2025, as well as unfavorable base effects compared to the negative 0.8 percent recorded in May 2024.”

According to the financial institution, core inflation is a version of the headline consumer price index that removes the effects of short-term price shocks, allowing for a clearer view of long-term inflation trends by focusing only on stable, ongoing price changes rather than temporary fluctuations.

The report further indicated that monthly core inflation dynamics in May were influenced by rising prices in both food and non-food categories, such as engine oil, restaurant and cafe services, local transport, and housing rents. Seasonal effects linked to Eid Al-Adha also contributed, particularly with increased costs for Hajj and Umrah, clothing, and meat.

“Monthly core inflation recorded 1.6 percent in May 2025, reflecting the impact of previously mentioned changes in core CPI items. Retail items and services contributed to monthly core inflation by 0.74 and 0.68 percentage points, respectively, while core food contributed 0.22 percentage points,” the report said.

It also revealed that monthly urban headline inflation rose to 1.9 percent in May, up from 1.3 percent in April, primarily fueled by ongoing price pressures, along with increases in volatile food prices and public services such as inland transport and health care.

“Likewise, annual rural headline inflation increased to 16.2 percent in May 2025, compared with 13.1 percent in April 2025, with annual nationwide headline inflation rising to 16.5 percent in May 2025 from 13.5 percent in April 2025,” the CBE report said.

In May, Madbouly said that the country is preparing to transition away from its current economic reform program with the International Monetary Fund, which is scheduled to conclude by late 2026 or early 2027.

He said at the time that the government is developing a long-term national economic strategy that will extend to 2030, focusing on sustaining growth without relying on international institutions, according to an official release. 

The remarks come as Egypt works to stabilize an economy that has been strained by record inflation, a weakening currency, and rising debt. In recent years, the government has implemented reforms aimed at unlocking external financing, attracting Gulf-backed investments, and completing a record sale of state assets.


What MENA’s wild 2025 funding cycle really revealed  

Updated 26 December 2025
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What MENA’s wild 2025 funding cycle really revealed  

RIYADH: The Middle East and North Africa startup funding story in 2025 was less a smooth arc than a sequence of sharp gears: debt-led surges, equity-led recoveries, and periodic quiet spells that revealed what investors were really underwriting.   

By November, the region had logged repeated bursts of activity — culminating in September’s $3.5 billion spike across 74 deals — yet the year’s defining feature was not just the size of the peaks, but the way capital repeatedly clustered around a handful of markets, instruments, and business models.  

Across the year’s first eleven months, funding totals swung dramatically: January opened at $863 million across 63 rounds but was overwhelmingly debt-driven; June fell to just $52 million across 37 deals; and September reset expectations entirely with a record month powered by Saudi fintech mega facilities.   

The net result was a market that looked expansive in headline value while behaving conservatively in underlying risk posture — often choosing structured financing, revenue-linked models, and geographic familiarity over broad-based, late-stage equity appetite.  

Debt becomes the ecosystem’s shock absorber  

If 2024 was about proving demand, 2025 was about choosing capital structure. Debt financing repeatedly dictated monthly outcomes and, in practice, became the mechanism that let large platforms keep scaling while equity investors stayed selective.  

Founded in 2019 by Osama Alraee and Mohamed Jawabri, Lendo is a crowdlending marketplace that connects qualified businesses seeking financing with investors looking for short-term returns. Supplied

January’s apparent boom was the clearest example: $863 million raised, but $768 million came through debt financing, making the equity picture almost similar to January 2024.   

The same pattern returned at larger scale in September, when $3.5 billion was recorded, but $2.6 billion of that total was debt financing — dominated by Tamara’s $2.4 billion debt facility alongside Lendo’s $50 million debt and Erad’s $33 million debt financing.    

October then reinforced the playbook: four debt deals accounted for 72 percent of the month’s $784.9 million, led by Property Finder’s $525 million debt round.    

By November, more than half the month’s $227.8 million total again hinged on a single debt-backed transaction from Erad.   

Tamara was founded in 2020 by Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah, and Abdulmohsen Albabtain, and offers buy-now-pay-later services. Supplied

This isn’t simply ‘debt replacing equity.’ It is debt acting as a stabilizer in a valuation-reset environment: late-stage businesses with predictable cash flows or asset-heavy models can keep expanding without reopening price discovery through equity rounds.  

A two-speed geography consolidates around the Gulf  

The regional map of venture capital in 2025 narrowed, widened, then narrowed again — but the center of gravity stayed stubbornly Gulf-led.    

Saudi Arabia and the UAE alternated at the top depending on where mega deals landed, while Egypt’s position fluctuated between brief rebounds and extended softness.  

In the first half alone, total investment reached $2.1 billion across 334 deals, with Saudi Arabia accounting for roughly 64 percent of capital deployed.   

Saudi Arabia’s rise was described as ‘policy-driven,’ supported by sovereign wealth fund-backed VC activity and government incentives, with domestic firms such as STV, Wa’ed Ventures, and Raed Ventures repeatedly cited as drivers.   

Erad co-founders (left to right): Faris Yaghmour, Youssef Said, Salem Abu Hammour, and Abdulmalik Almeheini. Supplied

The UAE still posted steady growth in the first half — $541 million across 114 startups, up 18 percent year-on-year — but it increasingly competed in a market where the largest single cheques were landing elsewhere unless the Emirates hosted the region’s next debt mega round.  

The concentration became stark in late-year snapshots. In November, funding was ‘tightly concentrated in just five countries,’ with Saudi Arabia taking $176.3 million across 14 deals and the UAE $49 million across 14 deals, while Egypt and Morocco each sat near $1 million and Oman had one undisclosed deal.    

Even in September’s record month, the top two markets — Saudi with $2.7 billion across 25 startups and the UAE with $704.3 million across 26 startups — absorbed the overwhelming majority of capital.  

A smaller but notable subplot was the emergence of ‘surprise’ markets when a single deal was large enough to change rank order.   

Iraq briefly climbed to third place in July on InstaBank’s $15 million deal, while Tunisia entered the top three in June entirely via Kumulus’ $3.5 million seed round.   

These moments mattered less for the totals than for what they suggested: capital can travel, but it still needs an anchor deal to justify attention.  

Events, narrative cycles, and the ‘conference effect’  

2025 also showed how regional deal flow can bunch around events that create permission structures for announcements.   

February’s surge — $494 million across 58 deals — was explicitly linked to LEAP 2025, where ‘many startups announced their closed deals,’ helping push Saudi Arabia to $250.3 million across 25 deals.  

September’s leap similarly leaned on Money20/20, where 15 deals were announced and Saudi fintechs dominated the headlines.  

This ‘conference effect’ does not mean deals are created at conferences, but it does change the timing and visibility of closes.   

Sector leadership rotates, but utility wins  

Fintech retained structural dominance even when it temporarily lost the top spot by value.   

It led January on the back of Saudi debt deals; dominated February with $274 million across 15 deals; remained first in March with $82.5 million across 10 deals; topped the second quarter by capital raised; and reclaimed leadership in November with $142.9 million across nine deals — again driven by a debt-heavy transaction.   

Even when fintech fell to ninth place by value in October with $12.5 million across seven rounds, it still remained ‘the most active sector by deal count,’ a sign of persistent baseline demand.  

Proptech was the year’s other headline sector, but its peaks were deal-specific. Nawy’s $75 million round in May helped propel Egypt to the top that month and pushed proptech up the rankings.   

Property Finder’s debt round in October made proptech the month’s top-funded sector at $526 million. In August, proptech led with $96 million across four deals, suggesting sustained investor appetite for real-estate innovation even beyond the megadeal.   

Outside fintech and proptech, the year offered signals rather than dominance. July saw deeptech top the sector charts with $250.3 million across four deals, reflecting a moment of investor appetite for IP-heavy ventures.   

AI repeatedly appeared as a strategic narrative — especially after a high-profile visit by US President Donald Trump alongside Silicon Valley investors and subsequent GCC AI initiatives — yet funding didn’t fully match the rhetoric in May, when AI secured just $25 million across two deals.   

By late year, however, expectations were already shifting toward mega rounds in AI and the industries built around it, positioning 2025 as a runway-building year rather than a breakout year for AI funding in the region.  

Stage discipline returns as valuations reset  

In 2025, MENA’s funding landscape tried to balance two priorities: sustaining early-stage momentum while selectively backing proven scale. Early-stage rounds dominated deal flow. October saw 32 early-stage deals worth $95.2 million, with just one series B at $50 million. November recorded no later-stage rounds at all, while even September’s record month relied on 55 early-stage startups raising $129.4 million.  

When investors did commit to later stages, the cheques were decisive. February featured Tabby’s $160 million series E alongside two $28 million series B rounds, while August leaned toward scale with $112 million across three series B deals. Late-stage equity was not absent — it was episodic, appearing only when scale economics were defensible. 

Hosam Arab, CEO of Tabby. File

B2B models remained the default. In the first half, B2B startups raised $1.5 billion, or 70 percent of total funding, driven by clearer monetisation and revenue visibility.  

The gender gap remained structural. Despite isolated spikes, capital allocation continued to overwhelmingly favour male-led startups.  

What 2025 actually said about 2026  

Taken together, 2025 looked like a year of capital market pragmatism. The region demonstrated capacity for outsized rounds, but much of that capacity ran through debt, a handful of megadeals, and a narrow set of markets — primarily Saudi Arabia and the UAE.   

Early-stage deal flow stayed active enough to keep the pipeline moving, even as growth-stage equity became intermittent and increasingly selective.   

By year-end, the slowdown seen in November read less like a breakdown than a deliberate pause: a market in consolidation mode preserving firepower, waiting for clearer valuation anchors and the next wave of platform-scale opportunities.   

If 2025 was about proving the region can absorb large cheques, 2026 is shaping up to test where those cheques will go — especially as expectations build around AI-led mega rounds and the industries that will form around them.