DUBAI: After almost 14 years of civil war, the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and the displacement of millions, the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad collapsed more suddenly and dramatically than anyone thought possible.

In the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, as rebel forces bore down on the capital, Assad boarded a Russian military aircraft and flew to Hmeimim airbase, near Latakia. From there, he and his sons, Hafez and Karim, flew to Moscow where his wife, Asma, and their daughter, Zein, had already taken refuge.

It marked the end of more than 50 years of a dynastic rule that began with his father, Hafez, who seized power in a bloodless military coup d’etat in 1970 and, upon his death in 2000, was succeeded by his son.

The following day, state media in Russia, the country that had been Assad’s greatest ally throughout the civil war, confirmed that he had been granted asylum.

A coalition of opposition forces, led by the group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, had launched an operation, codename “Deterrence of Aggression,” in Idlib, northwestern Syria, just 12 days earlier. It was the single-largest rebel offensive since 2020, and unlike previous efforts, this time the opposition fighters had geopolitical events on their side, as a result of which Assad found his forces collapsing around him.

With Russia still entangled in Ukraine and Iran preoccupied with Israeli attacks on its proxies in Yemen and Lebanon, morale among Syrian regime forces quickly crumbled when they realized that no one would be coming to their aid this time.

In the face of the lightning advance of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham and its allies, Iranian troops melted away into Iraq, and Russian units fell back to the ports of Latakia and Tartous.

In neighboring Lebanon, Assad’s long-time ally, Hezbollah, had suffered major blows in its war against Israel and was in no position to help defend him.

In hindsight, it became apparent that the assassination three months earlier of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, had been a pivotal moment in the unravelling of Assad’s network of support.

Ever since 2013, when he had announced Hezbollah was fighting in Syria, Nasrallah had been the driving force behind Hezbollah’s defense of the Syrian regime.

In a speech in May 2013 to mark the anniversary of Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000, Nasrallah said “If Syria falls in the hands of America, Israel and the takfiris, the people of our region will go into a dark period.

“If Syria falls,” he added, “Palestine will be lost.”

On Sept. 27, 2024, Nasrallah was among dozens killed when Israeli aircraft struck Hezbollah’s headquarters in southern Beirut.

With its hands already full dealing with Israel’s incursions into Lebanon, with Nasrallah’s death Hezbollah was effectively removed from the Syrian equation.

Assad was therefore left alone to face the reality of a staunch opposition bolstered by the cumulative effects of his ruthless regime on ordinary Syrians. The combined impacts of economic collapse, territorial fragmentation, decimated infrastructure, and widespread poverty affecting more than 90 percent of the population had turned even once-loyal soldiers into disillusioned cynics who, when the crunch came, chose to drop their weapons rather than fight for the president against opposition forces.

The overthrow of the Assad regime, together with the decapitation of the leaderships of Hezbollah and Hamas, have contributed to the impression that the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” an informal alliance between Iran, Iraq, Syria and militant groups in the region, has been weakened to the point where it cannot recover.

For the Syrian people, the fall of Assad marked the return of hope. The world watched as Syrians took to the streets in celebration and thousands of political prisoners were released from the regime’s notorious regime prisons.

As foreign governments and media wondered what to expect from Ahmad Al-Sharaa, the former Al-Qaeda fighter who led Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham and its allies to their remarkable victory, many exiled Syrians began planning their return home, more than a decade after the start of a civil war that created the largest refugee crisis since the Second World War.

According to UNHCR, the UN’s refugee agency, more than 6.3 million Syrians are scattered across the world. Large numbers of them are languishing in makeshift shelters in refugee camps along Syria’s borders.

After the fall of Assad, events moved fast. Al-Sharaa, who was at pains to make clear that the success of his forces was a victory for all Syrians, announced the creation of an inclusive transitional government.

He has held a series of meetings with representatives of foreign governments, including Russia. On Feb. 12, President Vladimir Putin and Al-Sharaa spoke in person for the first time. The Kremlin later said “the Russian side emphasized its principled position in support of the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian state.”

Al-Sharaa also had a meeting with a US delegation that traveled to Syria in December, which the Americans described as “productive.” Washington subsequently rescinded a $10 million reward it offered seven years ago for his capture.

Also among the more significant foreign visitors Al-Sharaa received during a busy few weeks was the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan. Riyadh, the prince said, was working to help the new authorities in Syria free themselves from previously imposed international sanctions.

On Jan. 30, the day after Al-Sharaa was named interim president of Syria by the transitional government, Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman congratulated him on his appointment.

Assad left Syria in ruins. The interim government and its new president are at the start of a complex process to reintroduce stability and quell unrest, while addressing the pressing challenges Syria faces, including national reconciliation, economic recovery, and the restoration of the country’s relationships with the international community.

On Jan. 31, during his first speech as president, Al-Sharaa addressed the “defiant” Syrian men and women who helped liberate the country, and the “oppressed,” as he vowed to “pursue the criminals who shed Syrian blood and committed massacres and crimes.”

While the actions of the interim government seem promising so far, the Syrian people are moving forward into a new era with an optimism that remains tempered by caution.

• Nadia Al Faour is a regional correspondent for Arab News. She previously contributed to international publications such as The Guardian and USA Today.