WTO warns global GDP could drop 7% as US-China trade war escalates 

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has spoken out amid the ongoing tariff war. Shutterstock
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Updated 10 April 2025
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WTO warns global GDP could drop 7% as US-China trade war escalates 

RIYADH: A full-blown trade war between the US and China could divide the global economy into rival blocs and slash worldwide growth by 7 percent in the long term, the World Trade Organization said. 

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that bilateral trade between the world’s two largest economies could plummet by as much as 80 percent, with far-reaching consequences. 

This comes as President Donald Trump announced sweeping import taxes on all goods entering the US, marking a major shift in trade policy. While introducing a temporary 90-day pause for some countries, he raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 125 percent, citing a “lack of respect” after Beijing hit back with its own 84 percent levy on US imports. 

Okonjo-Iweala said: “This tit-for-tat approach between the world’s two largest economies — whose bilateral trade accounts for roughly 3 percent of global trade — carries wider implications that could severely damage the global economic outlook.” 

She added: “A division of the global economy into two blocs could lead to a long-term reduction in global real GDP by nearly 7 percent.” 

Developing nations, particularly least-developed countries, would bear the brunt of the fallout. 

“Trade diversion remains an immediate and pressing threat, one that requires a coordinated global response,” Okonjo-Iweala emphasized, urging WTO members to resolve disputes through dialogue.  

The policy shift, first announced on April 2 and revised on April 10, signals a sharp escalation in trade tensions and a renewed push for Trump’s “America First” agenda. 

“In many cases, the friend is worse than the foe in terms of trade,” Trump said at a White House briefing on April 2, criticizing allies like Mexico and Canada for what he called unfair trade practices. 

He later suspended most of the tariffs on Wednesday, reverting to a universal 10 percent rate — except for China, which now faces 125 percent tariffs, up from 104 percent. “Based on the lack of respect China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China to 125 percent,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. 

The announcement triggered a historic stock market rally, with the Dow surging 7.87 percent, its best performance in five years, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped 9.5 percent and 12.2 percent, respectively. 

The WTO has repeatedly cautioned against unilateral trade measures, stressing that a rules-based trading system is critical to global stability. With China vowing retaliation, the risk of further escalation looms — a scenario Okonjo-Iweala warns could derail the fragile post-pandemic recovery. 

“WTO members have agency to protect the open, rules-based trading system,” she said. “Resolving these issues within a cooperative framework is essential.” 


World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience.
Updated 23 January 2026
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World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

  • Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years
  • Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience

DAVOS: Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience, as global leaders gathered in Davos on Friday against a backdrop of trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change.

Speaking on the final day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years.

“We need to define who ‘we’ are in this so-called new world order,” he said, arguing that many emerging economies had been adapting to a more fragmented global system for decades.

Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience. In energy markets, he pointed out that the focus should remain on balancing supply and demand in a way that incentivized investment without harming the global economy.

“Our role in OPEC is to stabilize the market,” he said.

His remarks were echoed by Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, who said that uncertainty had weighed heavily on growth, investment and geopolitical risk, but that reality had proven more resilient.

“The economy has adjusted and continues to move forward,” Alibrahim said.

Alibrahim warned that pragmatism had become scarce, trust increasingly transactional, and collaboration more fragile. “Stability cannot be quickly built or bought,” he said.

Alibrahim called for a shift away from preserving the status quo towards the practical ingredients that made cooperation work, stressing discipline and long-term thinking even when views diverged.

Quoting Saudi Arabia’s founding King Abdulaziz Al-Saud, he added: “Facing challenges requires strength and confidence, there is no virtue in weakness. We cannot sit idle.”

President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde stressed the importance of distinguishing meaningful data from headline noise, saying: “Our duty as central bankers is to separate the signal from the noise. The real numbers are growth numbers not nominal ones.”

Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva echoed Lagarde’s sentiments, saying that the world had entered a more “shock prone” environment shaped by technology and geopolitics.

Director General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that the global trade systems currently in place were remarkably resilient, pointing out that 72 percent of global trade continued despite disruptions.

She urged governments and businesses, however, to avoid overreacting.

Okonjo Iweala said that a return to the old order was unlikely, but trade would remain essential. Georgieva agreed, saying global trade would continue, albeit in a different form.

Georgieva warned that AI would accelerate economic transformation at an unprecedented speed. The IMF expects 60 percent of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or displaced, with entry-level roles and middle-class workers facing the greatest pressure.

Lagarde warned that without cooperation, capital and data flows would suffer, undermining productivity and growth.

Al-Jadaan said that power dynamics had always shaped global relations, but dialogue remained essential. “The fact that thousands of leaders came here says something,” he said. “Some things cannot be done alone.”

In another session titled Geopolitical Risks Outlook for 2026, former US Democratic representative Jane Harman said that because of AI, the world was safer in some ways but worse off in others.

“I think AI can make the world riskier if it gets in the wrong hands and is used without guardrails to kill all of us. But AI also has enormous promise. AI may be a development tool that moves the third world ahead faster than our world, which has pretty messy politics,” she said.

American economist Eswar Prasad said that currently the world was in a “doom loop.”

Prasad said that the global economy was stuck in a negative-feedback loop and economics, domestic politics and geopolitics were only bringing out the worst in each other.

“Technology could lead to shared prosperity but what we are seeing is much more concentration of economic and financial power within and between countries, potentially making it a destabilizing force,” he said.

Prasad predicted that AI and tech development would impact growing economies the most. But he said that there was uncertainty about whether these developments would create job opportunities and growth in developing countries.

Professor of international political economy at the University of New South Wales in Australia, Elizabeth Thurbon, said that China was driving a Green Energy transition in a way that should be modeled by the rest of the world.

“The Chinese government is using the Green Energy Transition to boost energy security and is manufacturing its own energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports,” she explained.

Thurbon said that China was using this transition to boost economic security, social security and geostrategic security. She viewed this as a huge security-enhancing opportunity and every country had the ability to use the energy transition as a national security multiplier. 

“We are seeing an enormous dynamism across emerging market economies driven by China. This boom loop is being driven by enormous investments in green energy. Two-thirds of global investment flowing into renewable energy is driven largely by China,” she said.

Thurbon said that China was taking an interesting approach to building relationships with countries by putting economic engagement on the forefront of what they had to offer.

“China is doing all it can to ensure economic partnership with emerging economies are productive. It’s important to approach alliances as not just political alliances but investment in economy, future and the flourishment of a state,” she said.

The panel criticized global economic treaties and laws, and expressed the need for immediate reforms in economic governing bodies.

“If you are a developing economy, the rules of the WTO, for example, are not helpful for you to develop. A lot of the rules make it difficult to pursue an economic development agenda. These regulations are not allowing the economies to grow,” Thurbon said.

“Serious reform must be made in international trade agreements, economic bodies and rules and guidelines,” she added.

Prasad echoed this sentiment and said there was a need for national and international reform in global economic institutions.

“These institutions are not working very well so we can reconfigure them or rebuild them from scratch. But unfortunately the task of rebuilding falls into the hands of those who are shredding them,” he said.

WEF attendees were invited to join the Global Collaboration and Growth meeting to be held in Saudi Arabia in April 2026 to continue addressing the complex global challenges and engage in dialogue.