Markets in freefall: Gulf bourses hit hard by US tariffs

Gulf banking stocks were hit hardest amid growing fears of a potential US economic slowdown. The sell-off mirrored the steep losses seen on Wall Street on April 4. Reuters/File
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Updated 06 April 2025
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Markets in freefall: Gulf bourses hit hard by US tariffs

RIYADH: Gulf bourses experienced a downturn on Sunday as fresh US tariffs dampened investor confidence across the region, leading to widespread sell-offs in line with last week’s global market slump.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark Tadawul All Share Index experienced a significant drop of 6.78 percent during today’s trading session, losing 805.46 points to close at 11,077.19. This marks its steepest single-day decline in months. The total trading volume for the index reached SR8.43 billion ($2.24 billion), with only one stock advancing and 252 retreating.

The MSCI Tadawul Index also saw a decline, falling by 98.60 points, or 6.56 percent to settle at 1,405.55.

Meanwhile, the Kingdom’s parallel market, Nomu, dropped by 1,992.71 points, or 6.5 percent, closing at 28,648.22. Notably, 89 listed stocks advanced in Nomu, while 11 retreated.

The worst performer of the day on the main market was Methanol Chemicals Co., whose share price fell by 10 percent to SR12.06, while the only positive performer stock was Nama Chemicals Co. with its share price surging by 0.5 percent to SR30.45.

In an interview with Arab News, Gaby Tchennozian, chief investment officer at a Dubai-based family office, highlighted that global market turbulence — triggered by an escalating US-led trade war—has not spared the Gulf region.




Gaby Tchennozian, chief investment officer at a Dubai-based family office. Supplied

“Even though the region isn’t directly involved in the trade tensions, the spillover is already being felt in markets,” he said.

Qatar’s QE Index declined by 4.23 percent, while Kuwait’s Premier Market Index dropped 5.69 percent. Other regional markets were similarly affected, with Muscat’s MSX 30 Index falling by 2.62 percent and the Bahrain All Share Index down by 1 percent. Investors are closely monitoring the impact of escalating trade tensions and the recent decline in oil prices.

This followed the announcement by US President Donald Trump of a 10 percent reciprocal tariff on Gulf imports.

Although UAE markets were closed on Sunday, the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange ended the previous week with a 1.9 percent loss on Friday. Similarly, Dubai’s DFM General Index closed 1.5 percent lower on April 4, indicating that further declines could occur when trading resumes on Monday. 

“For investors, the lesson isn’t just about reacting to headlines. It’s about building portfolios that can weather unexpected shocks,” Tchennozian noted.

In Egypt, trading was temporarily halted in several stocks on Sunday for 10 minutes after having dropped by 5 and 10 percent, in line with market regulations designed to prevent excessive volatility.

Tchennozian anticipates that market turbulence will persist for the next 2-3 months due to continued uncertainty.

While OPEC’s production increase was overshadowed by news of US tariffs, oil prices remain near GCC break-even levels. However, they could decline further if global trade weakens.

Potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may provide some relief, but tensions in the Red Sea are dampening market sentiment.

Tchennozian cautioned that if trade wars escalate or regional conflicts intensify, this volatility could extend well into late 2025.

Tariff turmoil rattles markets 

The White House confirmed on April 2 that a 10 percent tariff on Gulf Cooperation Council imports, effective April 5, was imposed to address what President Trump described as “long-standing unfair trade practices.”

Although the Gulf states were spared from more severe penalties—41 percent for Syria and 39 percent for Iraq—the move has raised concerns about rising import costs for US-sourced goods, particularly in sectors like construction and electronics.

“These tariffs will remain in effect until such a time as President Trump determines that the threat posed by the trade deficit and underlying nonreciprocal treatment is satisfied, resolved, or mitigated,” the White House said in a statement on April 2. 

Banking sector hit hardest

Gulf banking stocks were hit hardest amid growing fears of a potential US economic slowdown. The sell-off mirrored the steep losses seen on Wall Street on April 4, where the S&P 500 plummeted 9.58 percent, wiping out $5 trillion in market value and marking one of its worst declines in 70 years, according to Reuters.

The Nasdaq Composite Index also dropped by 5.8 percent on Friday, losing 962.8 points and officially entering bear market territory, driven by mounting global economic concerns.

Oil prices add to the pressure

Although the White House confirmed that oil and gas imports would be exempt from the new tariffs, Saudi oil giant Aramco still experienced a dip in market value during Sunday’s trading session. Its shares fell by 5.25 percent on Sunday to reach SR24.92, leading to a decrease of SR333.9 billion in market capitalization to settle at SR6.03 trillion.

For the GCC, the White House’s exemption is significant, as oil and gas constitute over 60 percent of Saudi Arabia’s exports to the US and remain a vital part of Gulf-US trade relations.

Oil prices plunged 7 percent on Friday, hitting a three-year low, after China retaliated in the escalating trade war by imposing 34 percent tariffs on all American goods, effective April 10.

This move, coinciding with global preparations for countermeasures against Trump’s tariffs—the highest in over a century—sent shockwaves through markets, with investors increasingly factoring in recession risks.

JP Morgan raised its forecast for a US and global recession to 60 percent, up from 40 percent, warning that escalating tariff tensions are undermining business confidence and threatening to derail global growth.

S&P Global also adjusted its “subjective” odds of a US recession, raising them to 30-35 percent, up from 25 percent in March.

Goldman Sachs had already revised its US recession risk to 35 percent from 20 percent ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement, citing weakening economic fundamentals.

HSBC noted on Thursday that the recession narrative is likely to strengthen, although markets have already factored in some of the risks.

Tchennozian further emphasized that Gulf markets are bearing the pressure as global indices continue to slump due to the ongoing US-led trade war. “GCC governments must act swiftly and decisively to reassure investors and safeguard their economies,” he said.

He suggested that this could be achieved by ramping up infrastructure spending while central banks ensure liquidity, particularly for small and medium enterprises.

Additionally, sovereign funds may need to step in with market stabilization measures, alongside diversifying trade toward Asia and Africa to mitigate the impact.

“Above all, clear and consistent communication from policymakers is key to reassuring investors that the region is not just weathering the storm—but actively steering through it,” he concluded.


World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience.
Updated 23 January 2026
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World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

  • Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years
  • Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience

DAVOS: Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience, as global leaders gathered in Davos on Friday against a backdrop of trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change.

Speaking on the final day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years.

“We need to define who ‘we’ are in this so-called new world order,” he said, arguing that many emerging economies had been adapting to a more fragmented global system for decades.

Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience. In energy markets, he pointed out that the focus should remain on balancing supply and demand in a way that incentivized investment without harming the global economy.

“Our role in OPEC is to stabilize the market,” he said.

His remarks were echoed by Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, who said that uncertainty had weighed heavily on growth, investment and geopolitical risk, but that reality had proven more resilient.

“The economy has adjusted and continues to move forward,” Alibrahim said.

Alibrahim warned that pragmatism had become scarce, trust increasingly transactional, and collaboration more fragile. “Stability cannot be quickly built or bought,” he said.

Alibrahim called for a shift away from preserving the status quo towards the practical ingredients that made cooperation work, stressing discipline and long-term thinking even when views diverged.

Quoting Saudi Arabia’s founding King Abdulaziz Al-Saud, he added: “Facing challenges requires strength and confidence, there is no virtue in weakness. We cannot sit idle.”

President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde stressed the importance of distinguishing meaningful data from headline noise, saying: “Our duty as central bankers is to separate the signal from the noise. The real numbers are growth numbers not nominal ones.”

Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva echoed Lagarde’s sentiments, saying that the world had entered a more “shock prone” environment shaped by technology and geopolitics.

Director General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that the global trade systems currently in place were remarkably resilient, pointing out that 72 percent of global trade continued despite disruptions.

She urged governments and businesses, however, to avoid overreacting.

Okonjo Iweala said that a return to the old order was unlikely, but trade would remain essential. Georgieva agreed, saying global trade would continue, albeit in a different form.

Georgieva warned that AI would accelerate economic transformation at an unprecedented speed. The IMF expects 60 percent of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or displaced, with entry-level roles and middle-class workers facing the greatest pressure.

Lagarde warned that without cooperation, capital and data flows would suffer, undermining productivity and growth.

Al-Jadaan said that power dynamics had always shaped global relations, but dialogue remained essential. “The fact that thousands of leaders came here says something,” he said. “Some things cannot be done alone.”

In another session titled Geopolitical Risks Outlook for 2026, former US Democratic representative Jane Harman said that because of AI, the world was safer in some ways but worse off in others.

“I think AI can make the world riskier if it gets in the wrong hands and is used without guardrails to kill all of us. But AI also has enormous promise. AI may be a development tool that moves the third world ahead faster than our world, which has pretty messy politics,” she said.

American economist Eswar Prasad said that currently the world was in a “doom loop.”

Prasad said that the global economy was stuck in a negative-feedback loop and economics, domestic politics and geopolitics were only bringing out the worst in each other.

“Technology could lead to shared prosperity but what we are seeing is much more concentration of economic and financial power within and between countries, potentially making it a destabilizing force,” he said.

Prasad predicted that AI and tech development would impact growing economies the most. But he said that there was uncertainty about whether these developments would create job opportunities and growth in developing countries.

Professor of international political economy at the University of New South Wales in Australia, Elizabeth Thurbon, said that China was driving a Green Energy transition in a way that should be modeled by the rest of the world.

“The Chinese government is using the Green Energy Transition to boost energy security and is manufacturing its own energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports,” she explained.

Thurbon said that China was using this transition to boost economic security, social security and geostrategic security. She viewed this as a huge security-enhancing opportunity and every country had the ability to use the energy transition as a national security multiplier. 

“We are seeing an enormous dynamism across emerging market economies driven by China. This boom loop is being driven by enormous investments in green energy. Two-thirds of global investment flowing into renewable energy is driven largely by China,” she said.

Thurbon said that China was taking an interesting approach to building relationships with countries by putting economic engagement on the forefront of what they had to offer.

“China is doing all it can to ensure economic partnership with emerging economies are productive. It’s important to approach alliances as not just political alliances but investment in economy, future and the flourishment of a state,” she said.

The panel criticized global economic treaties and laws, and expressed the need for immediate reforms in economic governing bodies.

“If you are a developing economy, the rules of the WTO, for example, are not helpful for you to develop. A lot of the rules make it difficult to pursue an economic development agenda. These regulations are not allowing the economies to grow,” Thurbon said.

“Serious reform must be made in international trade agreements, economic bodies and rules and guidelines,” she added.

Prasad echoed this sentiment and said there was a need for national and international reform in global economic institutions.

“These institutions are not working very well so we can reconfigure them or rebuild them from scratch. But unfortunately the task of rebuilding falls into the hands of those who are shredding them,” he said.

WEF attendees were invited to join the Global Collaboration and Growth meeting to be held in Saudi Arabia in April 2026 to continue addressing the complex global challenges and engage in dialogue.