Fall of Syrian government could usher in terrorism wave: UK experts

Above, a child jumps from a military vehicle abandoned by the Syrian army in Damascus airport highway on Dec. 9, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 09 December 2024
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Fall of Syrian government could usher in terrorism wave: UK experts

  • Independent reviewer of terrorism legislation ‘as worried as I was with Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan’
  • Ex-MI6 chief warns of ‘lone-wolf’ extremists formerly imprisoned by Assad

LONDON: The fall of President Bashar Assad could usher in a new wave of extremists in Syria, with knock-on effects for other states, UK terrorism experts have warned.

Jonathan Hall KC, the UK’s independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, said the vacuum after the fall of the government in Damascus could create new groups akin to Daesh. He told The Times that he is “as worried as I was with Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan.”

With the fall of the government, prisons across Syria have been entered by rebel forces, with thousands of people released.

Many are believed to be innocent civilians or political prisoners, but some are thought to be extremists with experience of fighting for Daesh in northeast Syria.

Thousands of former Daesh fighters are also being held in detention facilities by the Kurdish-led, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.

“We do not know what will happen to the prisons and detention centers in northeast Syria where the SDF are in charge. It may be that Kurdish autonomy in this part of Syria is undisturbed,” Hall said.

“There will always be the fear that if the SDF did lose control then the battle-hardened and extremist remnants of Islamic State (Daesh) who are currently in detention could form the kernel of a new Islamic State, or rush to join HTS (Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham) and firm up their extremist objectives.”

He added: “Everyone talked about Taliban 2.0 but they turned out just as extreme as the first Taliban; just look at the way they’ve treated women. Anybody with jihadi roots you have to be very worried about.”

Former MI6 chief Richard Dearlove said “lone-wolf” extremists formerly imprisoned by Assad are likely to be the biggest threats.

“Everyone is very enthusiastic about liberation but we’ve all seen what happened in Iraq with (Saddam Hussein’s) statue being torn down and we saw what happened with the same euphoria in Libya, and the situation in Syria is really, really complex,” he added.

“It depends how this plays out in coming months. There are certain circumstances that could fuel terrorism, but at the moment people are looking at the very confusing internal politics of Syria and the myriad of groups that will play out in a struggle to form a government and the hope is it will be genuinely pluralist.

“The organizational structure of (Daesh) is significantly weakened. The question is whether this fuels lone-wolf terrorists or an organized conspiracy … What’s happening in Syria, like what’s happening in Gaza with Hamas, is going to cause individuals to be radicalized to an extent that they carry out lone-wolf attacks.

“If individuals get released, unless they’re part of a highly organized conspiracy, we’re talking about lone wolf terrorists.”


Israel's settler movement takes victory lap as a sparse outpost becomes a settlement within a month

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Israel's settler movement takes victory lap as a sparse outpost becomes a settlement within a month

  • Smotrich, who has been in charge of Israeli settlement policy for the past three years, has overseen an aggressive construction and expansion binge aimed at dismantling any remaining hopes of establishing a Palestinian state in the occupied West Bank

YATZIV SETTLEMENT, West Bank: Celebratory music blasting from loudspeakers mixed with the sounds of construction, almost drowning out calls to prayer from a mosque in the Palestinian town across this West Bank valley.
Orthodox Jewish women in colorful head coverings, with babies on their hips, shared platters of fresh vegetables as soldiers encircled the hilltop, keeping guard.
The scene Monday reflected the culmination of Israeli settlers’ long campaign to turn this site, overlooking the Palestinian town of Beit Sahour, into a settlement. Over the years, they fended off plans to build a hospital for Palestinian children on the land, always holding tight to the hope the land would one day become theirs.
That moment is now, they say.
Smotrich goes on settlement spree
After two decades of efforts, it took just a month for their new settlement, called “Yatziv,” to go from an unauthorized outpost of a few mobile homes to a fully recognized settlement. Fittingly, the new settlement’s name means “stable” in Hebrew.
“We are standing stable here in Israel,” Finance Minister and settler leader Bezalel Smotrich told The Associated Press at Monday’s inauguration ceremony. “We’re going to be here forever. We will never establish a Palestinian state here.”
With leaders like Smotrich holding key positions in Israel’s government and establishing close ties with the Trump administration, settlers are feeling the wind at their backs.
Smotrich, who has been in charge of Israeli settlement policy for the past three years, has overseen an aggressive construction and expansion binge aimed at dismantling any remaining hopes of establishing a Palestinian state in the occupied West Bank.
While most of the world considers the settlements illegal, their impact on the ground is clear, with Palestinians saying the ever-expanding construction hems them in and makes it nearly impossible to establish a viable independent state. The Palestinians seek the West Bank, captured by Israel in 1967, as part of a future state.
With Netanyahu and Trump, settlers feel emboldened
Settlers had long set their sights on the hilltop, thanks to its position in a line of settlements surrounding Jerusalem and because they said it was significant to Jewish history. But they put up the boxy prefab homes in November because days earlier, Palestinian attackers had stabbed an Israeli to death at a nearby junction.
The attack created an impetus to justify the settlement, the local settlement council chair, Yaron Rosenthal, told AP. With the election of Israel’s far-right government in late 2022, Trump’s return to office last year and the November attack, conditions were ripe for settlers to make their move, Rosenthal said.
“We understood that there was an opportunity,” he said. “But we didn’t know it would happen so quickly.”
“Now there is the right political constellation for this to happen.”
Smotrich announced approval of the outpost, along with 18 others, on Dec. 21. That capped 20 years of effort, said Nadia Matar, a settler activist.
“Shdema was nearly lost to us,” said Matar, using the name of an Israeli military base at the site. “What prevented that outcome was perseverance.”
Back in 2006, settlers were infuriated upon hearing that Israel’s government was in talks with the US to build a Palestinian children’s hospital on the land, said Hagit Ofran, a director at Peace Now, an anti-settlement watchdog group, especially as the US Agency for International Development was funding a “peace park” at the base of the hill.
The mayor of Beit Sahour urged the US Consulate to pressure Israel to begin hospital construction, while settlers began weekly demonstrations at the site calling on Israel to quash the project, according to consulate files obtained through WikiLeaks.
It was “interesting” that settlers had “no religious, legal, or ... security claim to that land,” wrote consulate staffer Matt Fuller at the time, in an email he shared with the AP. “They just don’t want the Palestinians to have it — and for a hospital no less — a hospital that would mean fewer permits for entry to Jerusalem for treatment.”
The hospital was never built. The site was converted into a military base after the Netanyahu government came to power in 2009. From there, settlers quickly established a foothold by creating makeshift cultural center at the site, putting on lectures, readings and exhibits
Speaking to the AP, Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister at the time the hospital was under discussion, said that was the tipping point.
“Once it is military installation, it is easier than to change its status into a new outpost, a new settlement and so on,” he said.
Olmert said Netanyahu — who has served as prime minister nearly uninterrupted since then — was “committed to entirely different political directions from the ones that I had,” he said. “They didn’t think about cooperation with the Palestinians.”
Palestinians say the land is theirs
The continued legalization of settlements and spiking settler violence — which rose by 27 percent in 2025, according to Israel’s military — have cemented a fearful status quo for West Bank Palestinians.
The land now home to Yatziv was originally owned by Palestinians from Beit Sahour, said the town’s mayor, Elias Isseid.
“These lands have been owned by families from Beit Sahour since ancient times,” he said.
Isseid worries more land loss is to come. Yatziv is the latest in a line of Israeli settlements to pop up around Beit Sahour, all of which are connected by a main highway that runs to Jerusalem without entering Palestinian villages. The new settlement “poses a great danger to our children, our families,” he said.
A bypass road, complete with a new yellow gate, climbs up to Yatziv. The peace park stands empty.