Earth’s projected warming hasn’t improved for 3 years. UN climate talks are still pushing

At the United Nations climate talks, hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, nations are trying to set new targets to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases and figure out how much rich nations will pay to help the world with that task. (AP)
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Updated 14 November 2024
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Earth’s projected warming hasn’t improved for 3 years. UN climate talks are still pushing

  • The group also said that recent developments in China and the United States are likely to slightly worsen the outlook
  • They said Earth is on a path to be 2.7 degrees Celsius, or 4.9 Fahrenheit, warmer than pre-industrial times

BAKU: For the third straight year, efforts to fight climate change haven’t lowered projections for how hot the world is likely to get — even as countries gather for another round of talks to curb warming, according to an analysis Thursday.
At the United Nations climate talks, hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, nations are trying to set new targets to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases and figure out how much rich nations will pay to help the world with that task.
But Earth remains on a path to be 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times, according to Climate Action Tracker, a group of scientists and analysts who study government policies and translate that into projections of warming. Recent developments in China and the United States are likely to slightly worsen the outlook.
If emissions are still rising and temperature projections are no longer dropping, people should wonder if the United Nations climate negotiations — known as COP — are doing any good, said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare.
“There’s an awful lot going on that’s positive here, but on the big picture of actually getting stuff done to reduce emissions ... to me it feels broken,” Hare said.
Climate action is stifled by the biggest emitters
The world has already warmed 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times. That’s near the 1.5-degree (2.7 F) limit that countries agreed to at 2015 climate talks in Paris. Climate scientists say the atmospheric warming, mainly from human burning of fossil fuels, is causing ever more extreme and damaging weather including droughts, flooding and dangerous heat.
Climate Action Tracker does projections under several different scenarios, and in some cases, those are going up slightly.
“This is driven highly by China,” said Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga of Climate Analytics. Even though China’s fast-rising emissions are starting to plateau, they are peaking higher than anticipated, she said.
Another upcoming factor not yet in the calculations is the US elections. A Trump administration that rolls back the climate policies in the Inflation Reduction Act, and carries out the conservative blueprint Project 2025, would add 0.04 degree Celsius (0.07 Fahrenheit) to warming projections, Gonzales-Zuniga said. That’s not much, but it could be more if other nations use it as an excuse to do less, she said. And a reduction in American financial aid could also reverberate even more in future temperature outlooks.
“For the US it is going backwards,” said Hare. At least China has more of an optimistic future with a potential giant plunge in future emissions, he said.
“We should already be seeing (global) emissions going down” and they are not, Hare said. “The political system, politicians are not reacting. And I think that’s something that people everywhere should be worried about.”
Experts say $1 trillion is needed in climate cash for developing nations
The major battle in Baku is over how much rich nations will help poor countries to decarbonize their energy systems, cope with future harms of climate change and pay for damage from warming’s extreme weather. The old goal of $100 billion a year in aid is expiring and Baku’s main focus is coming up with a new, bigger figure.
A special independent group of experts commissioned by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued its own estimate of costs and finances on Thursday, calling for a tripling of the old commitment.
“Advanced economies need to demonstrate a credible commitment” to helping poor nations, the report said.
A coalition of developing nations at the Baku talks are asking for $1.3 trillion in annual climate finance. The independent experts’ report said about $1 trillion a year is needed by developing nations from all outside sources, not just government grants.
Negotiators are still working out how much money will be on the table for the final deal, but indications late Wednesday suggested many options were still on the table.
“Developing country needs are in the trillions and its clear such an amount can’t be provided from public funding, rather private investment has to be brought to the table,” said German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan. “All financial players need to do their part.”
COP29’s lead negotiator, Yalchin Rafiyev, called getting a deal on money for developing nations is “our top priority.”
The report detailed how expensive decarbonizing the world’s economy would be, how much it would cost and where the money could come from. Overall climate adaption spending for all countries is projected to reach $2.4 trillion a year.
It’s personal for many activists from the countries experiencing the worst and most immediate impacts of climate change, like Sandra Leticia Guzman Luna, who is from Mexico and is the director of the climate finance group for Latin America and the Caribbean. “We are observing the climate impacts causing a lot of costs, not only economic costs but also human losses,” she said.
“I’m from one of the countries that needs to pay up and is historically responsible,” said Bianca Castro, a climate activist from Portugal. “Year after year, we come to COP and we are heartbroken with what doesn’t happen but we know needs to happen.”
Fraught politics isolates some nations
Argentina withdrew from the climate talks on Wednesday on the orders of its president, climate skeptic Javier Milei, as first reported by Climatica. The Argentine government did not respond to requests from The Associated Press for comment.
Climate activists called the decision regrettable.
“It is largely symbolic and all it does is remove the country from critical conversations going on climate finance,” said Anabella Rosemberg, an Argentina native who works as a senior adviser at Climate Action Network International. “It’s difficult to understand how a climate-vulnerable country like Argentina would cut itself from critical support being negotiated here at COP29.”
At the same time, France’s environment minister, who was set to lead the delegation, pulled out of the talks after Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliyev called out France and the Netherlands for their colonial histories in a speech on Wednesday.
Agnès Pannier-Runacher called Aliyev’s remarks on France and Europe “unacceptable.” Speaking at the French Senate on Wednesday, Pannier-Runacher criticized Azerbaijan’s leader for using the fight against climate change “for a shameful personal agenda.”
“The direct attacks on our country, its institutions and its territories are unjustifiable,” she said, adding it was “ironic that Azerbaijan, a repressive regime, gives human rights lessons.”


Prominent human rights attorney quits international court over failure to prosecute Venezuela

Updated 3 sec ago
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Prominent human rights attorney quits international court over failure to prosecute Venezuela

  • Grossman said his ethical standards no longer allow him to stand by silently as Maduro’s government
MIAMI: A prominent human rights attorney has quietly parted ways with the International Criminal Court to protest what he sees as an unjustified failure of its chief prosecutor to indict members of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro ‘s government for crimes against humanity, The Associated Press has learned.
The Chilean-born Claudio Grossman, a former law school dean at American University in Washington and past president of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, was appointed special adviser to ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan in November 2021. In that unpaid position, he advised Khan on the deteriorating human rights situation in Venezuela.
In a harshly worded email last month to Khan, Grossman said his ethical standards no longer allow him to stand by silently as Maduro’s government continues to commit abuses, expel foreign diplomats and obstruct the work of human rights monitors from the United Nations — without any action from the ICC.
“I can no longer justify the choice not to take correspondingly serious action against the perpetrators of the grave violations,” Grossman wrote in an email rejecting an offer by Khan’s office in September to renew his contract.
A copy of the email, which has not been made public, was provided to the AP by someone familiar with the ICC investigation into Venezuela. A phone call by Khan asking Grossman to reconsider also failed, according to the person on the condition of anonymity to discuss the politically sensitive investigation.
Following AP’s inquiries with Khan’s office, Grossman’s name was removed from the court’s website listing him as a special adviser.
“The Prosecutor is extremely grateful to Professor Grossman for the expertise and work he has rendered,” the prosecutor’s office said in a statement without addressing Grossman’s stated reasons for cutting ties with the court based in The Hague, Netherlands. Grossman declined to comment.
The pressure on Khan to indict Venezuelan officials, including Maduro himself, comes as he battles allegations of misconduct with a female aide and the threat of US sanctions over his decision to seek the arrest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for alleged war crimes in Gaza.
The Rome Statute that established the court took effect in 2002, with a mandate to prosecute war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide — but only when domestic courts fail to initiate their own investigations.
Calls for faster progress in the court’s only ever investigation in Latin America have grown louder as Maduro tightens his grip on power, preparing to be sworn in for a third term Jan. 10 following an election marred by serious allegations of ballot box fraud and a post-election crackdown. More than 2,000 people were arrested and 20 killed following the vote.
The US and even some fellow leftist leaders in Latin America have demanded authorities present voting records, as they have in the past, to refute tally sheets presented by Maduro’s opponents showing their candidate, Edmundo González, prevailed by a two-to-one margin.
Many in Venezuela’s opposition have complained that the ICC is applying a double standard, moving aggressively to seek the arrest of Netanyahu and Russia’s Vladimir Putin for atrocities in Gaza and Ukraine while showing undue leniency with Venezuelan officials Khan has been investigating for more than three years.
“There is no justification whatsoever for the inaction,” González and opposition leader María Corina Machado wrote in a recent letter to Grossman and 18 other special advisers to the court appealing for their help.
“What is at stake is the life and well-being of Venezuelans,” they added in the letter, which was also provided to the AP by the person familiar with the ICC investigation. “This unjustifiable delay will cast legitimate doubts about the integrity of a system of accountability that has been an aspiration for the whole world.”
At the request of several Latin American governments, Khan three years ago opened an investigation into Venezuelan security forces’ jailing, torture and killing of anti-government demonstrators. At the same time, he promised technical assistance to give local authorities an opportunity to take action before the ICC, a tribunal of last resort.
Earlier this month, Khan delivered some of his harshest comments to date about the human rights situation in Venezuela, warning that officials’ repeated promises to investigate alleged abuses “cannot be a never-ending story.”
“I have not seen the concrete implementation of laws and practices in Venezuela that I hoped for,” he said in a speech at ICC headquarters. “The ball is in Venezuela’s court. The track of complementarity is running out of road.”
Maduro’s government, in response, said in a statement that it “deeply regrets that the prosecutor is being led astray by campaigns that have emerged on social networks promoted by the extreme right, Zionism and Western powers seeking to apply legal colonialism against Venezuela.”
Some Venezuelan critics have linked what they view as foot-dragging to a potential conflict of interest involving Khan’s sister-in-law, international criminal lawyer Venkateswari Alagendra, who has appeared on behalf of the Venezuelan government in two hearings before the court.
An ICC code of conduct directs prosecutors to abstain from any conflicts that may arise from “personal interest in the case, including a spousal, parental or other close family, personal or professional relationship with any of the parties.” Alagendra has previously worked with Khan and his wife defending Seif Al-Islam Qaddafi, the son of the Libyan dictator, at the ICC.
Khan’s office declined to comment about the relationship. But in a filing this month seeking dismissal of a request for recusal filed by the Washington-based Arcadia Foundation, he said a sister-in-law is not a close enough personal relationship requiring automatic disqualification and that he doesn’t recall ever discussing the Venezuela probe with Alagendra, who is just one of several attorneys defending the South American government.
“No fair minded and informed observer would conclude that there is a real possibility of bias,” Khan wrote, adding that he continues to actively and independently investigate the situation in Venezuela.
Those claiming to be victims of the Maduro government have pushed for the court to wrap up its investigation without taking a position on whether Khan should be recused.
After millions of Venezuelans have fled Maduro’s rule, many for neighboring countries, regional governments are also anxiously awaiting progress.
“Many in Latin America expect the ICC prosecutor to have a more muscular response,” said Juan Papier, deputy director for the Americas at Human Rights Watch. “The prosecutor’s office has spent too much time, so far fruitlessly, trying to work with Venezuela authorities to push for domestic investigations. Widespread impunity and lack of judicial independence in Venezuela make the ICC the most viable path for justice.”

US grand jury charges former Syrian prison official with torture

Updated 12 min ago
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US grand jury charges former Syrian prison official with torture

  • Samir Ousman Alsheikh headed Damascus Central Prison from 2005 to 2008, colloquially known as Adra prison
  • He allegedly ordering subordinates to inflict severe physical and mental pain and suffering on political and other prisoners

WASHINGTON: A federal grand jury in Los Angeles charged a former Syrian government official who headed the Damascus Central Prison from 2005 to 2008 with torture, the US Justice Department said on Thursday.
Samir Ousman Alsheikh, 72, headed the Adra prison, as it is colloquially known, during that period, allegedly ordering subordinates to inflict severe physical and mental pain and suffering on political and other prisoners, the department said.
He was sometimes personally involved in such incidents, the department added in its statement.
Reuters could not immediately contact Alsheikh to seek comment.
The torture aimed to deter opposition to the regime of ousted Syrian President Bashar Assad, the department said, adding that Alsheikh later allegedly lied about his crimes to obtain a US “green card,” or residence permit.
Alsheikh, who allegedly held positions in the Syrian police and the state security apparatus, was associated with the ruling Syrian Ba’ath Party, and was appointed governor of the province of Deir Ez-Zour by Assad in 2011.
A superseding indictment returned on Thursday alleged that Alsheikh immigrated to the United States in 2020 and applied for citizenship in 2023.
The indictment added three counts of torture and one count of conspiracy to commit torture to charges of visa fraud and attempted naturalization fraud that figured in an initial indictment against Alsheikh in August.
In a separate US indictment unsealed on Monday, two former high-ranking Syrian intelligence officials under Assad were charged with war crimes.
These included conspiracy to mete out cruel and inhuman treatment to civilian detainees, including US citizens, during the Syrian civil war that began in 2011.
Syrian rebels put an end to more than 50 years of rule by the Assad family over the weekend following a lightning advance.
The 13-year civil war killed hundreds of thousands, unleashed a refugee crisis and left cities bombed to rubble, the countryside depopulated and the Syrian economy hollowed out by global sanctions.


Thousands attend funeral of Afghan minister killed in Daesh attack 

Updated 39 min 29 sec ago
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Thousands attend funeral of Afghan minister killed in Daesh attack 

  • Minister for Refugees Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani killed on Wednesday in suicide bombing 
  • Haqqani was the brother of Jalaluddin Haqqani, founder of the feared Haqqani network 

SARANA, Afghanistan: Thousands of Afghans on Thursday attended the funeral of the refugees minister, AFP journalists saw, after he was killed in a suicide bombing in Kabul the day before in an attack claimed by the Daesh group.

The Minister for Refugees and Repatriation, Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani, was killed on Wednesday afternoon in a suicide bombing at the ministry’s offices in the Afghan capital.

Thousands of men, many of them armed, gathered for Haqqani’s funeral in his home village of Sarana, in a mountainous area of Paktia province, south of Kabul.

The funeral included heavy security, with armored vehicles, snipers and personnel manning the area and the road from Kabul, which was jammed with hundreds of cars as mourners traveled from surrounding provinces.

Senior Taliban officials, including the Chief of Army Staff Qari Fasihuddin Fitrat, and Maulawi Abdul Kabir, political deputy of the prime minister’s office, attended the funeral, according to an AFP team on site.

The deceased’s nephew, the powerful interior minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani, also attended, along with foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.

In a speech there, Muttaqi said the latest attacks had been planned “abroad,” denouncing, without naming them, “countries harboring” the organization.

“We call on all nations to work together to stop the common enemy, which does not recognize any kind of morality.”

Sirajuddin Haqqani (C), the Taliban interior minister, attends the funeral ceremony of Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani, the Minister for Refugees and Repatriation, in Sarana of Paktia province, south of Kabul, on December 12, 2024. (AFP)

In September, the Taliban authorities said Daesh had training camps in Balochistan province of Pakistan, which also regularly faces attacks.

Haqqani, the highest ranked member of the Taliban government to be killed in an attack since their return to power, “was a big loss for us, the system and the nation,” said Paktia resident Hedayatullah, 22.

“May God protect our other leaders and keep them victorious.”

“Our leader... who had his life brutally taken away, achieved martyrdom,” said Bostan, 53, haranguing the “cowardly attack” that killed Haqqani.

The United Nations mission in Afghanistan condemned the attack on Thursday, offering condolences to the victims’ families.

“There can be no place for terrorism in the quest for stability,” the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said on X.

The European Union and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation also condemned the attack, along with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Iran.

Haqqani — who is on US and UN sanctions lists and never appeared without an automatic weapon in his hand — was the brother of Jalaluddin Haqqani, founder of the feared Haqqani network responsible for some of the most violent attacks during the Taliban’s two-decade insurgency.

The Daesh group claimed responsibility for the attack, saying a bomber detonated an explosive vest inside the ministry, according to a statement on its Amaq news agency, as translated by the SITE Intelligence Group.

Taliban authorities had already blamed Daesh for the “cowardly attack” — the first targeting a minister since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

Violence has waned in Afghanistan since the Taliban forces took over the country that year, ending their war against US-led NATO coalition forces.

However, the regional chapter of Daesh is active in Afghanistan and has regularly targeted civilians, foreigners and Taliban officials with gun and bomb attacks.


Senior Ukraine official says Kyiv not yet ready for talks with Russia

Updated 34 min 28 sec ago
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Senior Ukraine official says Kyiv not yet ready for talks with Russia

  • Ukraine lacks the weapons, security guarantees and international status that it seeks

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff said in an interview broadcast late on Thursday that Kyiv was not yet ready to start talks with Russia as it lacked the weapons, security guarantees and international status that it sought.
Andriy Yermak’s comments to public broadcaster Suspilne come as Zelensky publicly considers the possibility of a negotiated settlement to the war with Russia, launched by Moscow’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February 2022.
“Not just yet today,” Yermak told Suspilne, when asked whether Ukraine was ready to embark on talks.
“We don’t have the weapons, we don’t have the status that we are talking about. And that means an invitation to NATO and an understanding of clear guarantees that would provide for us, so that we could be sure that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin won’t be coming back in two-three years.”
In comments this week alongside German opposition leader Friedrich Merz, Zelensky said Ukraine wanted an end to the war and efforts were needed to make his country stronger and oblige the Kremlin to work toward peace.
In recent public pronouncements, the president has also said talks could take place with Russia still holding on to territory it has seized in the invasion.
But Ukraine, he said, needed an invitation issued to the entire country to join NATO, though the Alliance’s status would apply to the territory controlled by Kyiv authorities and real security guarantees had to be put in place.
While in Paris last week, Zelensky met US President-elect Donald Trump, who has said, without giving details, that he wants the war to end quickly.
Russia has long rejected any notion of Ukraine becoming a NATO member, with Putin saying Kyiv had to accept the Kremlin’s annexation of four Ukrainian regions it only partly controls.


US announces new $500m military aid package for Ukraine

Updated 13 December 2024
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US announces new $500m military aid package for Ukraine

WASHINGTON: The United States on Thursday announced a new $500 million package of military aid for Ukraine, as Washington races to bolster Kyiv before President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
“The United States is providing another significant package of urgently needed weapons and equipment to our Ukrainian partners as they defend against Russia’s ongoing attacks,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement, with the aid to be drawn from US military stockpiles.
Trump’s November election victory has cast doubt on the future of American aid for Ukraine, providing a limited window for billions of dollars in already authorized assistance to be disbursed before he is sworn in next month.
The Republican has said his incoming administration will “probably” reduce aid to Ukraine, which Washington has been steadfastly backing since its invasion by Russia nearly three years ago.
The package announced Thursday includes ammunition for precision HIMARS rocket launchers, artillery ammunition, drones, armored vehicles, and equipment to protect against chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear attacks, along with other equipment, the statement said.
It follows a $988 million security assistance package and a separate $725 million package, both announced earlier this month.
The outgoing US administration is working to get as much aid as possible to Ukraine before Trump — who has repeatedly criticized US assistance for Kyiv and claimed he could secure a ceasefire within hours — takes over.
As President Joe Biden has “made clear, we’re going to continue to provide additional packages right up to the end of this administration,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said earlier Thursday.
Trump’s comments have triggered fears in Kyiv and Europe about the future of US aid, and Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russian attacks in the absence of further American support.
The United States has spearheaded the push for international support for Ukraine, quickly forging a coalition to back Kyiv after Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022 and coordinating aid from dozens of countries.
Ukraine’s international supporters have since then provided tens of billions of dollars in weapons, ammunition, training and other security aid that has been key to helping Kyiv resist Russian forces.