JERUSALEM: Israel struck several military facilities in Iran on Saturday, marking the latest exchange in the hostilities between the two longstanding adversaries in a conflict that has simmered for months.
Israel’s strikes were in retaliation for the October 1 attack by Iran, when Tehran fired about 200 missiles at Israel, though most were intercepted by the country’s aerial defense systems.
Experts AFP spoke to characterised Israel’s latest strikes as a calculated show of force in a conflict that has long threatened to engulf the region.
However, they believe a broader escalation into a regional war remains unlikely.
By hitting Iran’s missile factories, Israel is likely hoping to blunt a potent weapon the Islamic republic has used against the country in recent months.
Iran has hit Israel directly two times this year — once in April and the other time on October 1 — with massive missile barrages that were mostly neutralized by Israeli air defense.
However, some missiles were able to slip through.
“The goal, in my opinion, is to strike Iran’s missile-production industry to decrease one of the main threats to Israel, while also increasing Israel’s freedom of operation by attacking Iran’s air defenses,” Michael Horowitz, an expert with the Le Beck security consultancy, told AFP.
There were also no reports of mass civilian casualties or damage to the Iran’s economic infrastructure, which may provide a route for de-escalation between the two foes while earning Israel praise from its US backers.
“Israel has made a media and political coup and not a military one. It expects rewards from Washington for the moderate nature of its attack,” said Hasni Abidi, director of the Center for Studies and Research for the Arab and Mediterranean World in Geneva.
“At the same time, Israel has conducted a real test of the level of capacity reached by Iranian defense,” Abidi added.
Experts also suggested that the Israeli attack aimed to showcase the country’s ability to retaliate against Iran with a complex operation using precise firepower.
“From Israel’s point of view, it is a huge demonstration of capabilities,” said Sima Shine, an Iran specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv.
“I think it is the first time that many, many airplanes were flying to Iran, attacking in Iran, (and) coming back safely.”
Joost Hiltermann, Middle East program director at the International Crisis Group, said the Israeli show of force also left Iran more vulnerable.
“The importance of attacking Iran’s air defenses is that in a next round Iran would be largely undefended,” he told AFP.
Danny Critinowicz, another Iran expert at the INSS, believes that Israel’s ability to conduct largely umimpeded strikes stems from its successful efforts to weaken Hezbollah, Iran’s key ally in Lebanon.
“It was really the protecting wall of Iran, and the fact that Hezbollah is quite weak in its war on Israel, I think changes Israel’s calculus regarding attacking directly in Iran,” he said.
“This is a direct consequence of that.”
Though Critinowicz called the attack “unprecedented” and “historical” by breaking the taboo of a direct attack on Iran’s military on its soil, he said escalation into a full-blown regional war was unlikely.
Explosions in April shook Iran’s Isfahan province in what US officials, cited by American media, said was Israeli retaliation, though Israel never publicly acknowledged its responsibility.
“Nobody wants to find themselves in a regional war,” he told AFP, adding that Iran’s minimizing of the attack’s impact was a way to defuse tensions.
“Iran shows a lot of flexibility when they don’t want to do something... they know how to find the right excuses.”
However, he said that the strikes “can be a preview for what could happen in the future.”
“Since the Iran-Iraq war, Tehran has not suffered such attacks on its territory.... Iran’s leaders are obviously not interested in a regional war,” Critinowicz said.
“The ball now is in the hands of the Iranian leadership, which has committed in the past to an immediate response to any significant Israeli attack.”
Hiltermann of the ICG said Israel was also under US pressure to reduce the possibility of more escalation.
“The US doesn’t want a wider war and made clear to Israel what it expected,” he said.
Shine also pointed to the United States’ role and said “Israel and the US have also transmitted different messages to Iran not to retaliate to close the cycle of attacks.”
Still, she pointed to Iran’s own capacities should it choose to retaliate, saying it still had a stockpile of ballistic and other missiles.
“But as they have seen the previous two times, there is a very effective defense system” in Israel, she said.
“They have more interest in closing this cycle than opening it.”
Israel strikes on Iran, a show of force in simmering conflict
https://arab.news/ct863
Israel strikes on Iran, a show of force in simmering conflict
- “The goal, in my opinion, is to strike Iran’s missile-production industry to decrease one of the main threats to Israel,” said Michael Horowitz
- “Israel has made a media and political coup and not a military one. It expects rewards from Washington for the moderate nature of its attack,” said Hasni Abidi
Israeli army takes journalists into a tunnel in a Gaza city it seized and largely flattened
- Israel and Hamas are on the cusp of finishing the first phase of the truce, which mandated the return of all hostages, living and dead, in exchange for Palestinians held by Israel
- Hamas has said communication with its remaining units in Rafah has been cut off for months and that it was not responsible for any incidents occurring in those areas
RAFAH, Gaza Strip: One by one, the soldiers squeezed through a narrow entrance to a tunnel in southern Gaza. Inside a dark hallway, some bowed their heads to avoid hitting the low ceiling, while watching their step as they walked over or around jagged concrete, crushed plastic bottles and tattered mattresses.
On Monday, Israel’s military took journalists into Rafah — the city at Gaza’s southernmost point that troops seized last year and largely flattened — as the 2-month-old Israel-Hamas ceasefire reaches a critical point. Israel has banned international journalists from entering Gaza since the war began more than two years ago, except for rare, brief visits supervised by the military, such as this one.
Soldiers escorted journalists inside a tunnel, which they said was one of Hamas’ most significant and complex underground routes, connecting cities in the embattled territory and used by top Hamas commanders. Israel said Hamas had kept the body of a hostage in the underground passage: Hadar Goldin, a 23-year-old soldier who was killed in Gaza more than a decade ago and whose remains had been held there.
Hamas returned Goldin’s body last month as part of a US-brokered ceasefire in the war triggered by the militants’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel in which 1,200 people were killed and hundreds taken hostage. Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed more than 70,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which operates under the Hamas-run government. The ministry does not differentiate between civilians and combatants, but says roughly half the dead have been women and children.
Israel and Hamas are on the cusp of finishing the first phase of the truce, which mandated the return of all hostages, living and dead, in exchange for Palestinians held by Israel. The body of just one more hostage remains to be returned.
Mediators warn the second phase will be far more challenging since it includes thornier issues, such as disarming Hamas and Israel’s withdrawal from the strip. Israel currently controls more than half of Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to travel to Washington this month to discuss those next steps with US President Donald Trump.
Piles of rubble line Rafah’s roads
Last year, Israel launched a major operation in Rafah, where many Palestinians had sought refuge from offensives elsewhere. Heavy fighting left much of the city in ruins and displaced nearly one million Palestinians. This year, when the military largely had control of the city, it systematically demolished most of the buildings that remained standing, according to satellite photos.
Troops also took control of and shut the vital Rafah crossing, Gaza’s only gateway to the outside world that was not controlled by Israel.
Israel said Rafah was Hamas’ last major stronghold and key to dismantling the group’s military capabilities, a major war aim.
On the drive around Rafah on Monday, towers of mangled concrete, wires and twisted metal lined the roads, with few buildings still standing and none unscathed. Remnants of people’s lives were scattered the ground: a foam mattress, towels and a book explaining the Qur’an.
Last week, Israel said it was ready to reopen the Rafah crossing but only for people to leave the strip. Egypt and many Palestinians fear that once people leave, they won’t be allowed to return. They say Israel is obligated to open the crossing in both directions.
Israel has said that entry into Gaza would not be permitted until Israel receives all hostages remaining in the strip.
Inside the tunnel
The tunnel that journalists were escorted through runs beneath what was once a densely populated residential neighborhood, under a United Nations compound and mosques. Today, Rafah is a ghost town. Underground, journalists picked their way around dangling cables and uneven concrete slabs covered in sand.
The army says the tunnel is more than 7 kilometers (4 miles) long and up to 25 meters (82 feet) deep and was used for storing weapons as well as long-term stays. It said top Hamas commanders were there during the war, including Mohammed Sinwar — who was believed to have run Hamas’ armed wing and was the younger brother of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader who helped mastermind the Oct. 7 attack. Israel has said it has killed both of them.
“What we see right here is a perfect example of what Hamas did with all the money and the equipment that was brought into Gaza throughout the years,” said Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani. “Hamas took it and built an incredible city underground for the purposes of terror and holding bodies of hostages.”
Israel has long accused Hamas of siphoning off money for military purposes. While Hamas says the Palestinians are an occupied people and have a right to resist, the group also has a civilian arm and ran a government that provided services such as health care, a police force and education.
The army hasn’t decided what to do with the tunnel. It could seal it with concrete, explode it or hold it for intelligence purposes among other options.
Since the ceasefire began, three soldiers have been killed in clashes with about 200 Hamas militants that Israeli and Egyptian officials say remain underground in Israeli-held territory.
Hamas has said communication with its remaining units in Rafah has been cut off for months and that it was not responsible for any incidents occurring in those areas.
Both Israel and Hamas have accused each other of repeated violations of the deal during the first phase. Israel has accused Hamas of dragging out the hostage returns, while Palestinian health officials say over 370 Palestinians have been killed in continued Israeli strikes since the ceasefire took effect.
