Sinwar’s death clouds path to freeing Israeli hostages

A screengrab from a handout video shows what the Israeli Army says is recently killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar walking through a tunnel before the October 7 attacks, in this screengrab obtained by Reuters, released on October 19, 2024. (REUTERS)
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Updated 20 October 2024
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Sinwar’s death clouds path to freeing Israeli hostages

  • US intelligence believed “Sinwar’s stance had hardened in recent weeks, leading American negotiators to believe that Hamas was no longer interested in reaching a ceasefire or hostage agreement,” said the New York-based Soufan Center

PARIS: Slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was seen as a key obstacle to any agreement on the Israeli hostages seized during the October 7 attack that he orchestrated.
With his group plunged into a leadership vacuum by his death, the future of hostage negotiations appears to have become even more complicated.
Hamas now needs to appoint a replacement, and that person will play a key role in determining the fate of the Israelis kept hostage since its attack on October 7, 2023.
Of the 251 hostages taken to the Gaza Strip that day, 97 are still being held there, including 34 who the Israeli army has confirmed are dead.
Negotiations for their release are led by Israel’s intelligence services, with the help of the United States, Egypt and Qatar.
But that task will be no easier with Sinwar gone, analysts said.
“The hostages’ fate may now be sealed for the simple reason that there is no one left to negotiate their release,” said Karim Mezran, a Middle East expert at the Atlantic Council think tank.
US intelligence believed “Sinwar’s stance had hardened in recent weeks, leading American negotiators to believe that Hamas was no longer interested in reaching a ceasefire or hostage agreement,” said the New York-based Soufan Center.
So “any forthcoming negotiations can also serve as a litmus test for Hamas’s operational capacity in the post-Sinwar era,” the think tank added.
While the families of the hostages welcomed Sinwar’s killing, they also expressed “deep concern” about those still held captive.
“We call on the Israeli government, world leaders, and mediating countries to leverage the military achievement into a diplomatic one by pursuing an immediate agreement for the release,” the Hostages and Missing Persons Families Forum said on Friday.

Part of the problem lies in how Hamas is no longer the ultra-hierarchical organization it was when it carried out the October 7 attack which sparked the Gaza war.
Decimated and scattered by Israel’s offensive, and with the Gaza Strip cleaved in two by the Israeli army, today the militant group “operates in very localized cells, in a much more decentralized way,” researcher David Khalfa at the Fondation Jean-Jaures think tank told AFP.
Hamas “is now more of a militia with local warlords” that has links with “families which apparently are holding hostages,” he said.
That “is going to be a real problem for the Israelis and the Americans. Rather than a blanket agreement on the hostages, they will probably aim for releases bit by bit,” Khalfa said.
Until the middle of 2024, Hamas’s structure was split in two: on the one hand, the political branch led by Ismail Haniyeh, based in the Qatari capital Doha, and the paramilitary branch led by Sinwar in Gaza on the other.
Sinwar rose to become the overall leader of Hamas after Haniyeh was assassinated in July.
The balance of power between the two is now tilted toward the political bureau, “where the sources of funding, logistical support and militia training are concentrated,” Khalfa said.
If it chooses a leader in exile, the group runs the risk of seeing its new chief alienated from its forces on the ground in the Palestinian territories.
But if it appoints a fighter such as Sinwar’s brother Mohammed, Hamas will be signalling it has less interest in a political resolution to the war.

Hostage negotiations are now in unchartered territory.
“Prior negotiating efforts were all based on the idea that Sinwar had a line of connection to most of those holding hostages, and he could shape their actions,” Jon Alterman of the US think tank CSIS said.
“The picture is much murkier now, and we are likely to see a diverse array of outcomes,” he said.
There are even fears the hostages could be executed, perhaps in revenge for Sinwar’s killing or because the militants feel they can no longer sell the hostages for cash.
With no one in the group “willing to take the deadly risk of looking after them... the hostages may be left to their own devices and able to escape,” Mezran said.
“The fear is also that mid-level Hamas operatives may be tempted to eliminate the hostages to protect their own identities from the eventual retaliation of Israeli forces.”
The pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is enormous, but his government does not appear prepared to secure the hostages’ release at any price.
It will not have forgotten the 2011 release of more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, held hostage by Hamas for five years.
Among the Palestinians freed was Sinwar himself.
“They want to get away from the Shalit precedent, which was a mistake they paid a high price for,” Khalfa said.

 


Gaza’s tiny Christian community tries to capture the holiday spirit during the ceasefire

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Gaza’s tiny Christian community tries to capture the holiday spirit during the ceasefire

  • Gaza’s tiny Palestinian Christian community is trying to capture some of the Christmas spirit under a fragile ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war
  • One 76-year-old Christian finds hope in his faith while sheltering at Gaza’s Holy Family Church compound
GAZA: Attallah Tarazi recently received Christmas presents that included socks and a scarf to shield him against the Gaza winter, and he joined some fellow Palestinian Christians in a round of hymns.
“Christ is born,” the group sang in Arabic. “Hallelujah.”
The presents and hymns offered the 76-year-old a taste of the holiday in a devastated Gaza, where a fragile ceasefire has provided some relief, but the losses of the Israel-Hamas war and the ongoing struggles of displaced people are dampening many traditional festivities.
Tarazi and much of the rest of Gaza’s tiny Palestinian Christian community are trying to capture some of the season’s spirit despite the destruction and uncertainty that surround them. He clings to hope and the faith that he said has seen him through the war.
“I feel like our joy over Christ’s birth must surpass all the bitterness that we’ve been through,” he said. He’s been sheltering for more than two years at the Holy Family Church compound in Gaza, where a church group including choir members toured among displaced people this Christmas season, he said.
“In such a glorious moment, it’s our right to forget all that’s war, all that’s danger, all that’s bombardment.”
But for some, the toll is inescapable.
This will be the first Christmas for Shadi Abo Dowd since the death of his mother, who was among those killed in July when an Israeli attack hit the same Catholic church compound where Tarazi lives and which has been housing displaced people. Israel issued statements of regret and said it was an accident.
Abo Dowd said his son was wounded in the assault that also hurt the parish priest.
Ahead of Christmas, the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, paid a visit to the Holy Family Parish. A patriarchate statement said the visit marked the beginning of Christmas celebrations in “a community that has lived and continues to live through dark and challenging times.”
Suffering and a state of ‘no peace and no war’
Abo Dowd, an Orthodox Christian who observes Christmas on Jan. 7, said he does not plan to celebrate beyond religious rituals and prayers. “There’s no feast,” he said.
“Things are difficult. The wound is still there,” he said. “The suffering and pain are still there.”
He added: “We’re still living in a state of no peace and no war.”
Israeli strikes have decreased since the ceasefire agreement took effect in October, but deadly attackshave not entirely ended. Israel and Hamas have traded accusations of breaking the truce and the more challenging second phase has yet to be implemented.
The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostages.
Israel’s ensuing offensive has killed nearly 71,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants but says around half the deaths were women and children.
The ministry, which operates under the Hamas-run government, is staffed by medical professionals and maintains detailed records viewed as generally reliable by the international community.
Israel’s offensive in Gaza has also caused widespread destruction and displaced the vast majority of the territory’s some 2 million residents. Highlighting some of the many struggles and needs of the enclave and its people was torrential rain that recently flooded displacement camps and collapsed already badly damaged buildings.
“I always tell my children, ‘God only gives the toughest battles to his strongest soldiers,’” Abo Dowd said. “We’re holding onto our Christian faith and onto our country, and we love our country.”
He and others know of many Christians among those who fled Gaza during the war and more who hope to leave if given the opportunity. He worries about the effect on the Christian presence and on Gaza’s social fabric. “It’s a tragedy,” he said.
His children would like to study abroad. “They’re young. What will they stay to do? There’s no future.”
A Christmas without many familiar faces
The departure of many relatives and friends means Christmas doesn’t feel the same for 23-year-old Wafa Emad ElSayegh.
He and family members gathered with others at Gaza’s Greek Orthodox church compound to put up decorations. But the absence of friends who escaped Gaza fueled his nostalgia.
“We used to be together in everything,” said ElSayegh, who’s now staying with his family at the home of an aunt who left Gaza during the war.
His favorite part of Christmas was the togetherness — the family gatherings, the celebratory events that he said drew Christians and some Muslims, and the excitement of children receiving gifts.
“There would be celebrations, songs and an indescribable joy that we, unfortunately, haven’t felt in a long time,” he said. And with many relatives away, he said the usual Christmas atmosphere cannot be recreated.
Joy amid the pain
Elynour Amash, 35, is trying to bring some of that cheer to her children “through decorating and lighting the tree so they can feel that joy is possible despite all pain.”
“My children feel a little bit of joy, like breathing after a long period of suffocation,” she said in written responses to The Associated Press. “They’re happy they’re celebrating without fear of a nearby explosion and because some chocolates and sweets have returned to their lives, in addition to foods that they had long been deprived of.”
She’s thankful her home is still standing, but the scenes of displaced people in tents that cannot shield them from the cold and rain often drive her to tears.
She doesn’t feel like the war has truly ended.
“The sounds of explosions and gunfire can still be heard, and the fear hasn’t left the hearts. There’s continuous worry that the ceasefire won’t last.” She sees the toll in her youngest, who trembles when he hears loud noises.
“It’s as if the war lives inside of him,” she said. “As a mother, that pain is indescribable.”
She also worries that someday Christians could disappear from Gaza. But, for now, “our presence, no matter how small, is a testimony of love, steadfastness and faith in this land,” she said.
Tarazi is determined to stay.
Early in the war, he lost a sister, who was among those killed when an Israeli airstrike hit the Orthodox church compound housing displaced people. The Israeli military said it had targeted a nearby Hamas command center. Tarazi said a brother also died after he could not get needed medical care due to the war.
He prays for peace and freedom for the Palestinian people. “Our faith and our joy over Christ’s birth are stronger than all circumstances,” he said.