BAGHDAD: The United States and Iraq have reached an understanding on plans for the withdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Iraq, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.
The plan, which has been broadly agreed but requires a final go-ahead from both capitals and an announcement date, would see hundreds of troops leave by September 2025, with the remainder departing by the end of 2026, the sources said.
“We have an agreement, its now just a question of when to announce it,” a senior US official said.
The US and Iraq are also seeking to establish a new advisory relationship that could see some US troops remain in Iraq after the drawdown.
An official announcement was initially scheduled for weeks ago but was postponed due to regional escalation related to Israel’s war in Gaza and to iron out some remaining details, the sources said.
The sources include five US officials, two officials from other coalition nations, and three Iraqi officials, all speaking on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
Several sources said the deal could be announced this month.
Farhad Alaaldin, foreign affairs adviser to the Iraqi prime minister, said technical talks with Washington on the coalition drawdown had concluded.
“We are now on the brink of transitioning the relationship between Iraq and members of the international coalition to a new level, focusing on bilateral relations in military, security, economic, and cultural areas,” he said.
He did not comment on details of the plan and the US-led coalition did not respond to emailed questions.
The agreement follows more than six months of talks between Baghdad and Washington, initiated by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani in January amid attacks by Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups on US forces stationed at Iraqi bases.
The rocket and drone attacks have killed three American troops and wounded dozens more, resulting in several rounds of deadly US retaliation that threatened government efforts to stabilize Iraq after decades of conflict.
The US has approximately 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in neighboring Syria as part of the coalition formed in 2014 to combat Daesh as it rampaged through the two countries.
The group once held roughly a third of Iraq and Syria but was territorially defeated in Iraq at the end of 2017 and in Syria in 2019. Iraq had demonstrated its ability to handle any remaining threat, Alaaldin said.
The US initially invaded Iraq in 2003, toppling dictator Saddam Hussein before withdrawing in 2011, but returned in 2014 at the head of the coalition to fight Daesh.
Other nations, including Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, also contribute hundreds of troops to the coalition.
Under the plan, all coalition forces would leave the Ain Al-Asad air base in western Anbar province and significantly reduce their presence in Baghdad by September 2025.
US and other coalition troops are expected to remain in Irbil, in the semi-autonomous northern Kurdistan region, for approximately one additional year, until around the end of 2026, to facilitate ongoing operations against Daesh in Syria.
Exact details of troop movements are being kept secret due to their military sensitivity.
The drawdown would mark a notable shift in Washington’s military posture in the region.
While primarily focused on countering Daesh, US officials acknowledge their presence also serves as a strategic position against Iranian influence.
This position has grown more important as Israel and Iran escalate their regional confrontation, with US forces in Iraq shooting down rockets and drones fired toward Israel in recent months, according to US officials.
Prime Minister Al-Sudani has stated that, while he appreciates their help, US troops have become a magnet for instability, frequently targeted and responding with strikes often not coordinated with the Iraqi government.
The agreement, when announced, would likely present a political win for Al-Sudani as he balances Iraq’s position as an ally of both Washington and Tehran. The first phase of the drawdown would end one month before Iraqi parliamentary polls set for October 2025.
For the US, the two-year time frame provides “breathing room,” allowing for potential adjustments if the regional situation changes, a US official said.
The State Department and US Embassy in Baghdad did not respond to requests for comment.
US-Iraq deal would see hundreds of troops withdraw in first year, sources say
https://arab.news/b7uwy
US-Iraq deal would see hundreds of troops withdraw in first year, sources say
- Plan involves withdrawal by end of 2026, sources say, but still needs final go-ahead
- Some troops may stay in advisory role, but Iraq said troops have become magnet for instability
Iraq’s dreams of wheat independence dashed by water crisis
- Iraq ranks fifth globally for climate risk
- Average temperatures in Iraq have risen nearly half a degree Celsius per decade since 2000
NAJAF: Iraqi wheat farmer Ma’an Al-Fatlawi has long depended on the nearby Euphrates River to feed his fields near the city of Najaf. But this year, those waters, which made the Fertile Crescent a cradle of ancient civilization 10,000 years ago, are drying up, and he sees few options.
“Drilling wells is not successful in our land, because the water is saline,” Al-Fatlawi said, as he stood by an irrigation canal near his parched fields awaiting the release of his allotted water supply.
A push by Iraq — historically among the Middle East’s biggest wheat importers — to guarantee food security by ensuring wheat production covers the country’s needs has led to three successive annual surpluses of the staple grain.
But those hard-won advances are now under threat as the driest year in modern history and record-low water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers have reduced planting and could slash the harvest by up to 50 percent this season.
“Iraq is facing one of the most severe droughts that has been observed in decades,” the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Iraq representative Salah El Hajj Hassan told Reuters.
VULNERABLE TO NATURE AND NEIGHBOURS
The crisis is laying bare Iraq’s vulnerability.
A largely desert nation, Iraq ranks fifth globally for climate risk, according to the UN’s Global Environment Outlook. Average temperatures in Iraq have risen nearly half a degree Celsius per decade since 2000 and could climb by up to 5.6 C by the end of the century compared to the period before industrialization, according to the International Energy Agency. Rainfall is projected to decline.
But Iraq is also at the mercy of its neighbors for 70 percent of its water supply. And Turkiye and Iran have been using upstream dams to take a greater share of the region’s shared resource.
The FAO says the diminishing amount of water that has trickled down to Iraq is the biggest factor behind the current crisis, which has forced Baghdad to introduce rationing.
Iraq’s water reserves have plunged from 60 billion cubic meters in 2020 to less than 4 billion today, said El Hajj Hassan, who expects wheat production this season to drop by 30 percent to 50 percent.
“Rain-fed and irrigated agriculture are directly affected nationwide,” he said.
EFFORTS TO END IMPORT DEPENDENCE UNDER THREAT
To wean the country off its dependence on imports, Iraq’s government has in recent years paid for high-yield seeds and inputs, promoted modern irrigation and desert farming to expand cultivation, and subsidised grain purchases to offer farmers more than double global wheat prices.
It is a plan that, though expensive, has boosted strategic wheat reserves to over 6 million metric tons in some seasons, overwhelming Iraq’s silo capacity. The government, which purchased around 5.1 million tons of the 2025 harvest, said in September that those reserves could meet up to a year of demand.
Others, however, including Harry Istepanian — a water expert and founder of Iraq Climate Change Center — now expect imports to rise again, putting the country at greater risk of higher food prices with knock-on effects for trade and government budgets.
“Iraq’s water and food security crisis is no longer just an environmental problem; it has immediate economic and security spillovers,” Istepanian told Reuters.
A preliminary FAO forecast anticipates wheat import needs for the 2025/26 marketing year to increase to about 2.4 million tons.
Global wheat markets are currently oversupplied, offering cheaper options, but Iraq could once again face price volatility.
Iraq’s trade ministry did not respond to a request for comment on the likelihood of increased imports.
In response to the crisis, the ministry of agriculture capped river-irrigated wheat at 1 million dunams in the 2025/26 season — half last season’s level — and mandated modern irrigation techniques including drip and sprinkler systems to replace flood irrigation through open canals, which loses water through evaporation and seepage.
A dunam is a measurement of area roughly equivalent to a quarter acre.
The ministry is allocating 3.5 million dunams in desert areas using groundwater. That too is contingent on the use of modern irrigation.
“The plan was implemented in two phases,” said Mahdi Dhamad Al-Qaisi, an adviser to the agriculture minister. “Both require modern irrigation.”
Rice cultivation, meanwhile, which is far more water-intensive than wheat, was banned nationwide.
RURAL LIVELIHOODS AT RISK
One ton of wheat production in Iraq requires about 1,100 cubic meters of water, said Ammar Abdul-Khaliq, head of the Wells and Groundwater Authority in southern Iraq. Pivoting to more dependence on wells to replace river water is risky.
“If water extraction continues without scientific study, groundwater reserves will decline,” he said.
Basra aquifers, he said, have already fallen by three to five meters.
Groundwater irrigation systems are also expensive due to the required infrastructure like sprinklers and concrete basins. That presents a further economic challenge to rural Iraqis, who make up around 30 percent of the population.
Some 170,000 people have already been displaced in rural areas due to water scarcity, the FAO’s El Hajj Hassan said.
“This is not a matter of only food security,” he said. “It’s worse when we look at it from the perspective of livelihoods.”
At his farm in Najaf, Al-Fatlawi is now experiencing that first-hand, having cut his wheat acreage to a fifth of its normal level this season and laid off all but two of his 10 workers.
“We rely on river water,” he said.
