WASHINGTON: NATO has agreed to launch a new program to provide reliable military aid and training to Ukraine and help it get ready to join the alliance.
The plan will supplement, but not replace, the two-year-old Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which was created by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin after Russia launched its February 2022 invasion into Ukraine. That group, with more than 50 nations from Europe and around the world, coordinates the delivery of much-needed weapons and training to Ukraine.
But the failure of the US Congress to fund any weapons for months due to partisan gridlock late last year and early this year, as well as similar lags in European Union funds, underscored how vulnerable that effort was to the vagaries of politics.
And the delays allowed Russian troops to gain the advantage on the battlefield, and led to widespread complaints from Ukraine’s forces about lack of equipment and weapons.
Some officials have described the new NATO organization as a way to “Trump-proof” alliance support for Ukraine in case former President Donald Trump wins the November election. But that may be a reach.
Here’s what is planned and what it will and won’t do:
Ukraine Defense Contact Group
Over the past two years, the US-created group has evolved into a more sophisticated and organized effort that so far has pumped more than $100 billion in weapons, equipment and training into Ukraine.
The US alone has sent more than $53.6 billion in security aid, including about $25 billion in presidential drawdown authority, under which weapons are taken from Pentagon stocks and sent quickly to Ukraine. The US has provided more than $27 billion in longer-term funding for weapons contracts through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.
The rest of the NATO members and other international partners have provided about $50 billion in weapons and security assistance, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, an independent research organization based in Germany.
An international coordination center was set up at Lucius D. Clay Kaserne, the US Army base in Wiesbaden, Germany, to identify Ukraine’s needs, and to locate equipment, weapons and spare parts in other countries that could fill those requirements. That group may eventually be absorbed into the new NATO organization.
And the contact group set up eight so-called capability coalitions headed by various countries to concentrate on specific military requirements: such as fighter aircraft, tanks, artillery, naval assets, air defense, de-mining, cyber and drones. Those are expected to continue.
The new NATO plan
Under the plan endorsed by NATO heads of state on Wednesday, the alliance will take on a broader role to coordinate training and equipment donations.
The effort will be based at the US Army Garrison Wiesbaden in Germany and is expected to be led by a US three-star general. There will be about 700 staff members, including some who will work at logistics nodes in eastern allied nations.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the new program would put support for Ukraine on a “firmer footing for years to come” but would avoid making the alliance a party to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
And NATO also is pledging to provide at least €40 billion ($43.3 billion) within the next year, and “to provide sustainable levels of security assistance for Ukraine to prevail,” while taking into account budgets and other agreements.
The new coordination effort is dubbed the NSATU — NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine — and it will oversee three main areas:
A way to help Ukraine join NATO
A critical component of the new NSATU is that it will help facilitate Ukraine’s effort to become a member of NATO.
Membership in the alliance requires that nations meet a litany of political, economic and security criteria. For example, Ukraine’s military forces will have to meet certain standards of conduct and training, and their weapons and equipment have to be interoperable with those of other allied nations.
The NSATU will help ensure that as time goes on the weapons and training for Ukraine fit what would be required for NATO membership.
In announcing the effort earlier this year, Stoltenberg said it would help to organize training for Ukrainian military personnel in NATO member countries, coordinate and plan donations of the equipment that Kyiv needs, and manage the transfer and repair of that military equipment.
But is it Trump-proof?
Likely not.
A key incentive for the broader NATO organization, according to some officials, is the worry that Trump could regain the presidency and scale back support for the alliance as well as help to Ukraine.
Earlier this year, Trump reiterated his threat that he will not defend NATO members that don’t meet defense spending targets. And he set off alarms in Europe by suggesting he would tell Russia to attack NATO allies he considered delinquent.
And the gap in US funding for Ukraine this year was the result of opposition from Republican allies of Trump in Congress who blocked the aid package for months.
While moving some assistance for Ukraine under the NATO umbrella provides greater consistency, any change in US administrations could trigger shifts in US policy. And that could include limits on spending to support Ukraine or any other diplomatic or military operations.
Participation in the Ukraine contact group, for example, could be upended, as well as any other Pentagon program.
NATO agrees to take on coordination of some Ukraine security support
https://arab.news/nm4m8
NATO agrees to take on coordination of some Ukraine security support
- The delays allowed Russian troops to gain the advantage on the battlefield
- Some officials have described the new NATO organization as a way to “Trump-proof” alliance support for Ukraine in case former President Donald Trump wins
It’s unusual that the Brown campus shooter has evaded identification this long, experts say
- Investigators have released several videos from the hours and minutes before and after the shooting that show a person who, according to police, matches witnesses’ description of the shooter
PROVIDENCE, R.I.: It’s been nearly a week since someone killed two students and wounded nine others inside a Brown University classroom before fleeing, yet investigators on Thursday appeared to still not know the attacker’s name.
There have been other high-profile attacks in which it took days or longer to make an arrest or find those responsible, including in the brazen New York City sidewalk killing of UnitedHealthcare’s CEO last year, which took five days.
But frustration is mounting in Providence that the person behind Saturday’s attack, which killed two students and wounded nine others, managed to get away and that a clear image of their face has yet to emerge.
“There’s no discouragement among people who understand that not every case can be solved quickly,” the state attorney general, Peter Neronha, said at a news conference Wednesday.
How is the investigation going?
Authorities have scoured the area for evidence and pleaded with the public to check any phone or security footage they might have from the week before the attack, believing the shooter might have cased the scene ahead of time. But they have given no sense that they’re close to catching the shooter.
Investigators have released several videos from the hours and minutes before and after the shooting that show a person who, according to police, matches witnesses’ description of the shooter. In the clips, the person is standing, walking and even running along streets just off campus, but always with a mask on or their head turned.
Although Brown officials say there are 1,200 cameras on campus, the attack happened in an older part of the engineering building that has few, if any cameras. And investigators believe the shooter entered and left through a door that faces a residential street bordering campus, which might explain why the cameras Brown does have didn’t capture footage of the person.
Providence Mayor Brett Smiley said Wednesday that the city is doing “everything possible” to keep residents safe. However, he acknowledged that it is “a scary time in the city” and that families likely were having tough conversations about whether to stay in town over the holidays.
“We are doing everything we can to reassure folks, to provide comfort, and that is the best answer I can give to that difficult question,” Smiley said when asked if the city was safe.
Although it’s not unheard of for someone to disappear after carrying out such a high-profile shooting, it is rare.
What can be learned from past investigations?
In such targeted and highly public attacks, the shooters typically kill themselves or are killed or arrested by police, said Katherine Schweit, a retired FBI agent and expert on mass shootings. When they do get away, searches can take time.
“The best they can do is what they do now, which is continue to press together all of the facts they have as fast as they can,” Schweit said. “And, really, the best hope for solutions is going to come from the public.”
In the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing, it took investigators four days to catch up to the two brothers who carried it out. In a 2023 case, Army reservist Robert Card was found dead of an apparent suicide two days after he killed 18 people and wounded 13 others in Lewiston, Maine.
The man accused of killing conservative political figure Charlie Kirk in September turned himself in about a day and a half after the attack on Utah Valley University’s campus. And Luigi Mangione, who has pleaded not guilty to murder charges in the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in Manhattan last year, was arrested five days later at a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania.
Felipe Rodriguez, a retired New York police detective sergeant and adjunct professor at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, said it’s clear that shooters are learning from others who were caught.
“Most of the time an active shooter is going to go in, and he’s going to try to commit what we call maximum carnage, maximum damage,” Rodriguez said. “And at this point, they’re actually trying to get away. And they’re actually evading police with an effective methodology, which I haven’t seen before.”
Investigators have described the person they are seeking as about 5 feet, 8 inches tall and stocky. The attacker’s motives remain a mystery, but authorities said Wednesday that none of the evidence suggests a specific person was being targeted.
Meanwhile, Boston-area police are investigating the shooting death of a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor earlier this week. Nuno F.G. Loureiro was attacked at his home Monday, and no one has been arrested or named as a suspect. The FBI said it had no reason to think his killing was linked to the Brown attack.
