Powerful Iraqi Shi’ite cleric Sadr girds for political comeback

Iraqi Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr speaks during news conference in Najaf, Iraq this screen grab taken from a live video, August 30, 2022. (REUTERS)
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Updated 13 May 2024
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Powerful Iraqi Shi’ite cleric Sadr girds for political comeback

  • A dominant figure in Iraq since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, self-styled nationalist Sadr has railed against the influence of both Iran and the United States in Iraq

NAJAF, Iraq: Powerful Iraqi Shi'ite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is laying the groundwork for a political comeback two years after a failed and ultimately deadly high-stakes move to form a government without his Shi'ite rivals, multiple sources said.
His return, likely planned for the 2025 parliamentary election, could threaten the growing clout of rivals including Iraqi Shi'ite parties and armed factions close to Iran, and undermine Iraq's recent relative stability, observers say.
However, many among Iraqi's majority Shi'ite population are likely to welcome Sadr's re-emergence, especially his masses of mostly pious and poor followers who view him as a champion of the downtrodden.
Reuters spoke to more than 20 people for this story, including Shi'ite politicians in Sadr's movement and in rival factions, clerics and politicians in the Shi'ite holy city of Najaf, and government officials and analysts. Most spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
"This time, the Sadrist movement has stronger plans than the last time round to win more seats in order to form a majority government," a former Sadrist lawmaker said, though the final decision to run has not officially been made.
Sadr won the 2021 parliamentary election but ordered his lawmakers to resign, then announced a "final withdrawal" from politics the next year after rival Shi'ite parties thwarted his attempt to form a majority government solely with Kurdish and Sunni Muslim parties.
A dominant figure in Iraq since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, self-styled nationalist Sadr has railed against the influence of both Iran and the United States in Iraq.
Iran views Sadr's participation in politics as important to maintaining Iraq's Shi'ite-dominated political system in the long term, though Tehran rejects his aspirations to be recognised as its single most dominant force.
The United States, which fought Sadr's forces after he declared a holy war against them in 2004, sees him as a threat to Iraq's fragile stability, but also views him as a needed counter to Iranian influence.
Many Iraqis say they have lost out no matter who is in power while elites siphon off the country's oil wealth.
CLERICAL NOD
Since March, Sadr has stepped back towards the limelight.
First, he held a rare meeting with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, a prominent cleric revered by millions of Shi'ites who played a central role in ending the deadly intra-Shi'ite clashes in 2022 that preceded Sadr's political exit.
Sadrists interpret the March 18 audience with Sistani, who stays above the fray of Iraq's fractious politics and does not typically meet politicians, as a tacit endorsement, according to six people in Sadr's movement.
A cleric close to Sistani said Sadr spoke about a possible return to political life and parliament and "left this important meeting with a positive outcome". Sistani's office did not respond to a request for comment.
Days after the meeting, Sadr instructed his lawmakers who resigned in 2021 to gather and re-engage with the movement's political base.
He then renamed his organisation the Shi'ite National Movement, a swipe at rival Shi'ite factions he deems unpatriotic and beholden to Iran as well as a bid to further mobilise his base along sectarian lines, a person close to Sadr said.
While some analysts fear the disruption of a Sadr return to frontline politics, others say he could re-emerge humbled by the routing of his forces during the intra-Shi'ite strife as well as the relative success of the current Baghdad government, including its balancing of relations between Iran and the U.S.
"Of course, there is always a greater risk of instability when you have more groups balancing power, especially when they are armed. But the Sadrists should return less hostile," said Hamzeh Hadad, an Iraqi analyst and visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
"The political parties know it's best to share power than to lose it all together," he said.
A senior Sadrist politician said the movement might seek to ally with some ruling Shi'ite factions, such as popular Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, while isolating others including arch-rival Qais Al-Khazaali, leader of the powerful, Iran-backed political and military group Asaib Ahl al-Haq.
Advisers to Sudani said he was keeping his options open.
"There are groups in the framework that we have long-time relations with and could ally with before or after elections. What we don't accept is to get into deals with corrupt militias," the senior Sadrist said.
In Sadr City, Sadr's sprawling, long-impoverished stronghold on the east side of Baghdad, many supporters await his return in the hope this could translate into jobs and services.
"This city supports Sadr and I don't think he would forget us after all the sacrifices we have made for him," said Taleb Muhawi, a 37-year-old father of three who was waiting to hear back on a government job.
"He needs to shake things up when he comes back."

 


Gaza ceasefire fragile, UN warns, amid Israeli airstrikes, aid obstacles and spiraling West Bank violence

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Gaza ceasefire fragile, UN warns, amid Israeli airstrikes, aid obstacles and spiraling West Bank violence

  • Most Gazans remain dependent on humanitarian assistance as winter weather worsens, yet aid agencies still unable to operate at scale, senior UN official tells Security Council
  • He warns of ‘entrenched’ negative trends in West Bank, including intensified Israeli military action, settlement expansions, settler violence, demolitions and large-scale arrests

NEW YORK CITY: The fragile ceasefire in Gaza could unravel amid sweeping humanitarian shortfalls, continuing Israeli military operations and mounting restrictions on aid access, a senior UN official told the Security Council on Wednesday.
At the same time, violence and settlement expansions in the occupied West Bank are accelerating, Ramiz Alakhbarov, the UN’s deputy special coordinator for the Middle East peace process, added.
He acknowledged some improvements on the ground in Gaza, noting that deliveries of aid via Egypt, Jordan, Israel, the occupied West Bank and Cyprus had helped to increase supply volumes and improve nutrition, but he stressed that “more must be done.”
Most people in Gaza continue to be dependent on humanitarian assistance, with displaced families exposed to worsening winter conditions, he added, yet aid agencies are still unable to operate at scale despite the halt in major hostilities.
“Nearly the entire population in Gaza remains in need of humanitarian assistance,” Alakhbarov said, warning that heavy rain and cold temperatures have compounded the suffering of about 1.5 million displaced Palestinians who are living in inadequate shelters.
Restrictions on the delivery of construction materials and technical expertise have left emergency shelter sites unable to meet even minimal international standards, he warned as he described families struggling overnight to prevent tents collapsing from the wind and rain.
Humanitarian operations remain hampered by insecurity, customs delays, limited routes into Gaza, and Israeli restrictions on which organizations are allowed bring supplies into the territory, Alakhbarov told the council.
Aid entering Gaza from Jordan accounts for just 9 percent of assistance processed since Oct. 10, he said. He described the current volumes of aid “only a fraction” of what had previously been achieved.
Severe entry restrictions continue to be imposed on critical items such as mobile homes, fuel, rescue equipment and medical supplies, he added, which is endangering displaced people in general and patients in need of health care. Meanwhile, access to public infrastructure and agricultural land remains limited, and repeated displacements of the population continue amid ongoing demolitions.
Despite the ceasefire agreement in October last year, Israeli military operations have not fully ceased, Alakhbarov said, with airstrikes, shelling and gunfire continuing across Gaza.
Armed exchanges between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants also persist, he added, and attacks occur daily near or beyond the so-called “yellow line” that separates the parts of Gaza under Israeli control from the areas to which the Palestinian population is restricted.
“Hundreds of Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire began, including many women and children,” Alakhbarov told council members.
He also raised the alarm over Israel’s decision to suspend or review the registration of dozens of international nongovernmental organizations, warning that banning them would significantly undermine humanitarian response efforts across the territory. He urged Israel to immediately reverse the move.
Turning to the situation in the occupied West Bank, Alakhbarov said negative trends were “entrenched daily,” citing in particular intensified Israeli military operations, settlement expansions, settler violence, demolitions and large-scale arrests.
Israeli forces conducted expanded raids in cities including Jenin, Nablus, Hebron and Ramallah in late December and early January, he said, frequently involving live fire and raising serious concerns about the use of lethal force.
Palestinians, including minors, have been killed during the operations, and large-scale arrests, including the detention of children, have been reported alongside allegations of ill-treatment of prisoners and deaths in custody.
Palestinian attacks against Israelis have also continued, Alakhbarov noted, including deadly ramming and stabbing incidents in northern Israel in late December.
At the same time, settler violence has intensified, he said, forcing entire Palestinian communities to flee. Repeated attacks led to the displacement of people from Khirbet Yanun in Nablus governorate in December, followed this month by the forcible removal of about 80 households from Ras Ein Al-Auja in the Jordan Valley.
Demolitions and land seizures across the northern West Bank, evictions in East Jerusalem, and the destruction of parts of refugee camps have exacerbated territorial fragmentation, he said.
Meanwhile settlement expansions have been “rapid and relentless.” Israeli authorities have issued tenders for more than 4,700 housing units in Area C — which covers more than 60 percent of the West Bank — including thousands of units in the sensitive E1 zone east of Jerusalem, a move Alakhbarov warned could sever the geographic connection between the northern and southern West Bank.
He also condemned what he described as the escalating Israeli campaign against UNRWA, the UN’s agency for Palestinian refugees, including legislation to seize its compounds and cut utilities, raids on its health facilities, and the demolition of its headquarters in East Jerusalem.
“These acts are flagrant violations of international law,” Alakhbarov said. He urged Israeli authorities to comply with an International Court of Justice advisory opinion requiring them to facilitate, not obstruct, UNRWA operations.
Meanwhile, Israel continues to withhold Palestinian clearance revenues, which are taxes collected by Israel on behalf of the Palestinian Authority on goods imported into Gaza and the West Bank. The amount withheld now totals nearly $2.5 billion, Alakhbarov said, and Israel’s refusal to hand it over is pushing the authority deeper into fiscal crisis, forcing cuts to public services and reduced salary payments to workers.
Unless these Israeli policies are urgently addressed, he warned, the cumulative effects might not only undermine prospects for a two-state solution but also jeopardize progress toward implementation the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement.