BASRA: On Basra Corniche, as neon-lit boats glide along Shatt Al-Arab and street vendors hawk Arabic coffee and oil-soaked sweetcorn, groups of young Iraqis debate football as if their words might affect the outcome.

Iraq face the UAE tonight in a winner-takes-all World Cup qualifying playoff second leg, and the mood in this southern city flickers between feverish pride and foreboding.

“We will win, I’m sure about that. I have no doubt,” said one 30-something fan in an Iraqi shirt and matching scarf. “But I also have no reason for such confidence.”

For all the talk of home advantage, Basra has not been kind to its national team of late.

The Lions of Mesopotamia have failed to win any of their past three matches here, performances often shrinking under the suffocating weight of 65,000 passionate, expectant spectators.

Iraq’s greatest asset — its raucous crowd — can, at times, become its heaviest burden. A poor pass prompts groans; a tame shot tests patience; a mistimed touch sees the stadium exhale like steam from a ruptured pipe.

Graham Arnold, Iraq’s Australian coach, is blissfully unaware of what the local press writes about him. “I can’t read it, which is perfect,” he joked on Monday night.

But even he cannot ignore the weight of expectations surrounding a team chasing its first World Cup appearance since 1986. Arnold, albeit with Iraq for only six months, has been in football long enough to recognize both the magnitude of the moment and the peril it carries.

“The boys are ready,” he said. “We have four or five players out injured, but I believe in the depth of the squad. I’ve told the players — and I say it openly and honestly — I have no time to train them technically.

“They have what they have. I have no time to train them physically. They do that at their clubs. Tactically, we have one or two sessions. But what we do have is very good meetings. It’s all about the brain, the mentality.”

Arnold has banned social media. He has tightened routines, improved diets and sleep schedules, and stripped away distractions so players hear only one voice.

“Part of my strength as a coach is psychology and making sure there is only one voice in the player’s brain. Mentally it’s important that they keep calm and do what they do best — play with their mates in front of people.

“Forget about everyone else and just focus on yourself. Unfortunately in these moments, that means you’ve got to forget about your family. The family is the team and we do this together.”

The first leg finished 1–1 in Abu Dhabi — a match Iraq could have led comfortably by half-time were it not for Khalid Eisa’s heroics in the UAE goal. Instead, Arnold’s side were hanging on by the end, spared defeat only by an offside flag ruling out a late winner for the hosts.

And so it all comes down to Basra, where one nation’s dream blooms and another burns. Arnold knows nights like this for he was on the Australia bench when they beat Uruguay 20 years ago this week to reach the 2006 World Cup.

He was there again in 2022 when the Socceroos overcame Peru in a continental playoff for a place at the tournament in Qatar. Victory tonight will not quite send Iraq to the World Cup yet, but it would put them one step closer by securing a place in March’s six-team inter-confederation playoffs in Mexico.

“I’ve been in this job for six months and I have lived in Baghdad for five-and-a-half of them,” Arnold told Iraqi reporters.

“I don’t think I’ve ever worked harder in my life. And that’s because I know when you qualify for a World Cup how it can change your country. When we did 20 years ago in Australia, it completely changed the country and the sport. That is my dream for you.”

If that dream is to be realized, the fans must play their part. “It’s a huge advantage — 65,000 Iraqis supporting the players,” he said.

“We need the fans to be the 12th man and make it more difficult for the UAE. How many of their Brazilian players have played in Iraq before? I don’t know, so make it difficult for them.

“We played in Abu Dhabi and the stadium was just over half (the capacity of Basra International Stadium), so for a lot of the UAE players it will be interesting here with 65,000.”

Then came the line that cut like an Iraqi saif: “I see it as only an advantage for us, but we need all the Iraqi fans to be on the same side.”

There are fears the stadium may not even fill after calls were ignored to reduce ticket prices of $10 to $40. Yet back on the corniche on Monday night, amid the din of tea glasses and dominoes being placed down on tables, fans dismissed such concerns.

“That stadium will be full, I assure you,” said Majid Salim who travelled from Babylon for the game and is already anticipating a post-match party. “It’s going to be beautiful. This time tomorrow, I will be back here watching fireworks and celebrating. Look for me.”

Arnold can control his players, perhaps even their nerves, but no coach can control an entire city, let alone a country. On Tuesday night, all of Iraq will breathe with his team, hurt with them, and sweat with them.

And if the noise they create inside Basra International Stadium channels encouragement rather than frustration, it also might just carry them one step closer to somewhere they have not been in 40 years.