Indian states vote in key test for Modi and rivals ahead of 2024 general election

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) activists hold party flags during a rally in Kolkata, India, on July 19, 2023. (AFP/File)
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Updated 07 November 2023
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Indian states vote in key test for Modi and rivals ahead of 2024 general election

  • Modi, rivals have crisscrossed five states, addressing rallies and promising loan waivers, subsidies
  • But surveys suggest Modi remains popular after a decade in power and will likely win a third term 

NEW DELHI: Two of five Indian states due to elect new legislatures this month began voting on Tuesday, a big test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s chances of winning a third term in a national election due by May. 

Modi and leaders of the main opposition Congress party headed by Rahul Gandhi have criss-crossed the five states, addressing campaign rallies and promising cash doles, farm loan waivers, subsidies and insurance covers, among others, to woo voters. 

Gandhi has worked hard to revive Congress since its drubbing in the 2019 general elections and helped form an alliance of 28 regional parties to give Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party a tougher fight in 2024. 

But surveys suggest Modi remains popular after a decade in power and will likely win a third term. 

The new opposition alliance, called the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), has also not been able to extend its unity to this month’s state elections due to local rivalries, giving BJP an edge. 

More than 160 million people — or about one-sixth of India’s total electorate — are eligible to vote in the regional polls being held in four legs until Nov. 30. Votes in all five states will be counted on Dec. 3 and results expected the same day. 

The elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram states are mainly a contest between BJP and Congress. 

“We are confident of securing a majority in all states,” said Raman Singh, a senior BJP leader and former chief minister of the mineral-rich central Indian state of Chhattisgarh, which votes on Tuesday along with Mizoram in the northeast. 

Singh said Modi’s weekend decision to extend a free food grains program by five years will help win more votes. 

“BJP faces a challenge but results will prove that people are in no mood to experiment and they trust Modi’s stable governance,” Singh told Reuters. 

Opinion polls suggest close fights, particularly in the heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, two of which are ruled by Congress and one by BJP. 

“State elections’ results before the 2024 polls will showcase the overall public mood and it will tremendously help our opposition bloc to perfect its messaging, coordination and leadership,” said Sachin Pilot, a senior Congress leader. 

“The aim is to ensure all five states are won by the Congress,” he said, adding what he called Modi’s failure to create new jobs, address rural distress and exacerbate communal fault lines will lead to BJP’s defeat. 


Top UN court to hear Rohingya genocide case against Myanmar

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Top UN court to hear Rohingya genocide case against Myanmar

THE HAGUE: Did Myanmar commit genocide against its Rohingya Muslim minority? That’s what judges at the International Court of Justice will weigh during three weeks of hearings starting Monday.
The Gambia brought the case accusing Myanmar of breaching the 1948 Genocide Convention during a crackdown in 2017.
Legal experts are watching closely as it could give clues for how the court will handle similar accusations against Israel over its military campaign in Gaza, a case brought to the ICJ by South Africa.
Hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Muslims fled violence by the Myanmar army and Buddhist militias, escaping to neighboring Bangladesh and bringing harrowing accounts of mass rape, arson and murder.
Today, 1.17 million Rohingya live crammed into dilapidated camps spread over 8,000 acres in Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh.
From there, mother-of-two Janifa Begum told AFP: “I want to see whether the suffering we endured is reflected during the hearing.”
“We want justice and peace,” said the 37-year-old.

’Senseless killings’

The Gambia, a Muslim-majority country in West Africa, brought the case in 2019 to the ICJ, which rules in disputes between states.
Under the Genocide Convention, any country can file a case at the ICJ against any other it believes is in breach of the treaty.
In December 2019, lawyers for the African nation presented evidence of what they said were “senseless killings... acts of barbarity that continue to shock our collective conscience.”
In a landmark moment at the Peace Palace courthouse in The Hague, Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi appeared herself to defend her country.
She dismissed Banjul’s argument as a “misleading and incomplete factual picture” of what she said was an “internal armed conflict.”
The former democracy icon warned that the genocide case at the ICJ risked reigniting the crisis, which she said was a response to attacks by Rohingya militants.
Myanmar has always maintained the crackdown by its armed forces, known as the Tatmadaw, was justified to root out Rohingya insurgents after a series of attacks left a dozen security personnel dead.

‘Physical destruction’

The ICJ initially sided with The Gambia, which had asked judges for “provisional measures” to halt the violence while the case was being considered.
The court in 2020 said Myanmar must take “all measures within its power” to halt any acts prohibited in the 1948 UN Genocide Convention.
These acts included “killing members of the group” and “deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part.”
The United States officially declared that the violence amounted to genocide in 2022, three years after a UN team said Myanmar harbored “genocidal intent” toward the Rohingya.
The hearings, which wrap up on January 30, represent the heart of the case.
The court had already thrown out a 2022 Myanmar challenge to its jurisdiction, so judges believe they have the power to rule on the genocide issue.
A final decision could take months or even years and while the ICJ has no means of enforcing its decisions, a ruling in favor of The Gambia would heap more political pressure on Myanmar.
Suu Kyi will not be revisiting the Peace Palace. She has been detained since a 2021 coup, on charges rights groups say were politically motivated.
The ICJ is not the only court looking into possible genocide against the Rohingya.
The International Criminal Court, also based in The Hague, is investigating military chief Min Aung Hlaing for suspected crimes against humanity.
Another case is being heard in Argentina under the principle of universal jurisdiction, the idea that some crimes are so heinous they can be heard in any court.