BRICS sees strength in numbers as it envisions a multipolar world order

Foreign ministers of BRICS nations with representatives of new prospective members in Cape Town. (Reuters)
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Updated 21 August 2023
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BRICS sees strength in numbers as it envisions a multipolar world order

  • BRICS foreign ministers’ summit sets stage for a more ambitious role for five-nation bloc
  • Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Saudi minister of foreign affairs, joins ministerial meeting of the ‘Friends of BRICS’

LONDON: Foreign ministers from BRICS countries Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have expressed their willingness to admit new members, including Saudi Arabia, as the bloc seeks a larger voice in the international arena. 

At a two-day conference in Cape Town on Thursday and Friday, attended by Prince Faisal bin Farhan, the Saudi minister of foreign affairs, the group presented itself as a force for a “rebalancing” of the global order away from Western-dominated institutions. 

Prince Faisal held bilateral talks with several of his counterparts and attended a ministerial meeting of the “Friends of BRICS” under the theme “Partnership for Mutually Accelerated Growth, Sustainable Development, and Inclusive Multilateralism.”

He also held talks with Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Iran’s foreign minister, to examine steps “to implement the agreement between the two countries signed in Beijing, including intensifying bilateral work to ensure international peace and security,” according to a statement from the Saudi delegation. 




Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan with Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. (MOFA/Twitter)

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, Cuba, DRC, Comoros, Gabon, and Kazakhstan all sent representatives to Cape Town for the talks, while Egypt, Argentina, Bangladesh, Guinea-Bissau and Indonesia participated virtually.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said “more than a dozen” countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS. Meanwhile, Ma Zhaoxu, China’s vice foreign minister, told a press conference: “We expect more countries to join our big family.”

According to reports, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Algeria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Iran have all formally asked to join the BRICS, as have several other nations who appear intent upon recalibrating international ties in line with an increasingly multipolar world order.

According to the Financial Times, Saudi Arabia is also in talks with the New Development Bank, the Shanghai-based lender better known as the “BRICS bank,” to admit the Kingdom as its ninth member.   

A heads of state summit is scheduled to take place in Johannesburg in August.

The BRICS economic bloc is positioning itself as an alternative to Western-dominated centers of power. However, experts seem uncertain about its potential, pointing to innate divisions between the central BRICS powers and a lack of clarity on what membership might entail.

Nevertheless, for several countries seeking financial assistance, the stringent demands often attached to bailouts by Western-dominated institutions like the IMF and World Bank have proved increasingly unpalatable, leading many nations to look elsewhere for partnerships.




A Tunisian man and his children return home on their cart in the central Tunisian city of Sidi Bouzid. (AFP)

One such example is Tunisia. 

Battered by diminishing output, high debt and rampant inflation, with food and fuel prices spiking, many saw the IMF’s offer of a $1.9 billion loan as Tunisia’s only way out of an escalating economic and political crisis.

President Kais Saied disagreed with this perspective, however, making his views on the deal very clear at the start of April, rejecting demands to cut energy and food subsidies and reduce the public wage bill, which the loan had been made contingent upon.

“I will not hear diktats,” Saied said, noting the deadly riots that ensued in 1983 after bread prices were raised, telling Tunisians they instead had to “count on themselves.”

Others close to Saied seem to think that he has different plans to stop the country’s economic rot.

Echoing Saied, Mahmoud bin Mabrouk, a spokesperson for the pro-presidential July 25 Movement, told Arab News that Tunisia would “not accept diktats or interference” and would now look to the BRICS as “a political, economic and financial alternative that will enable Tunisia to open up to the new world.”

Should bin Mabrouk’s claim hold weight, Tunisia would become the latest North African country to gravitate toward the bloc after Algeria applied to join late last year.

Such a move would suggest that the BRICS bloc is an expanding entity offering an alternative to the IMF and World Bank for states seeking bailouts.

However, Jim O’Neill, the economist who coined the BRICS acronym, questions “what” Tunisia would actually be signing up for, describing the bloc as more of a “political club” than any defined economic grouping, and one that seems to have had negative effects financially.

“As I’ve argued before, since the politic club came around, ironically, its economic strength has weakened,” O’Neill told Arab News. He further questions what criteria the bloc would seek in new members, suggesting that in the case of Algeria and Tunisia “it all just seems (like) symbolism.”

Symbolism or not, Algeria and Tunisia are not alone in their pivot toward the nascent bloc, with Argentina, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye all considering tethering their futures to it.

Sarah Yerkes, a senior fellow at Carnegie’s Middle East Program, believes that Tunisia’s move should be taken seriously as it represents “an intentional geopolitical shift on its behalf,” noting the increased criticism of Tunisia from both Europe and the US.

“Tunisia is desperate for financial assistance and since the West is focused on conditioning aid to Tunisia on democratic reforms, it makes sense that Saied would seek assistance from countries that are less concerned with human rights and freedom,” Yerkes told Arab News.

However, like O’Neill, she questions whether the BRICS can offer an alternative to the IMF and World Bank, pointing to the bloc’s weak record when it comes to “assisting other countries and helping them achieve real, sustained economic prosperity.”

Internally, the BRICS group, at least, seems confident that it can rival the West. And, with the group set to meet in Johannesburg this August, South Africa’s foreign minister Naledi Pandor has reportedly suggested the launch of the economic bloc’s own currency, intended as a rival to dollar hegemony, would be firmly on the discussion table.

Even so, few commentators offer a defense of BRICS as a new economic bloc, with Elie Abouaoun, director of MENA at the US Institute of Peace, seeing Tunisia’s addition as a weight around the neck of a limited pool of “GDP contributors.”




The foreign ministers of South Africa and India. (Supplied)

“At this stage, the main contributors to global GDP among the BRICS countries are China and India, and most of the countries listed as potential candidates to become members are loan consumers rather than solid contributors to the global GDP,” Abouaoun told Arab News.

“With seven or eight new consumer countries integrating into the alliance, I see challenges for the largest BRICS member states and less, if any, financial benefit to the new ones. The alliance will certainly be weaker with more members so desperate to receive economic aid.”

Similarly, Liam Campling, professor of international business and development at Queen Mary University’s School of Business and Management, London, said that agreement by the BRICS cohort to admit Tunisia would be “slightly puzzling, given that it is a mid-level power.”

“When you look at the existing members, they are all sub-regional powers, each dominant in their part of the world, but when you look at Tunisia it is not dominant in North Africa in the same way Egypt is,” Campling told Arab News.

“So, from the BRICS perspective, it is not an obvious ally, but from the Tunisia side, it could obviously be an effort to garner wider macroeconomic support. Although what I think is happening is it is playing both sides, which is part of the play for any mid-ranking country.”

Campling’s skepticism stems from his assertion that while Tunisia may have fallen foul of the US, with increased political acrimony between the two, it is still very much economically “in bed” with the Europeans, adding “it’s not going to jeopardize its EU connections for this.”

And like the others, Campling has wider reservations about the BRICS project, pointing to what he terms the “central tension at the heart of it,” namely the long-running border disputes between China and India.

This, he suggests, renders the bloc more of an ad-hoc alliance than a cohesive unit that can direct global trade, policy and finance in a manner akin to that of the IMF or World Bank, and thus he questions the assertion that BRICS could become an alternative economic bloc.

“Essentially, I do not see it being able to offer a sustained alternative until that central tension between India and China is resolved, and I do not see that being resolved, which means there is nothing really holding it together, leaving little space for a more sustained role,” he said.

Abouaoun says what is really missing is a “normative model” that other countries can buy into beyond the BRICS bloc’s defense of “multipolarity.” Scratch beneath the surface and there seems to be an absence of substance — an opinion shared by Yerkes.

“At this point it doesn’t seem much more than a potential counterweight to Europe and the US, and without a foundational ideology, particularly with members with vastly different economic philosophies, it doesn’t seem likely that it would be a strong competitor,” she said.

Consensus on BRICS’ prospects notwithstanding, O’Neill is at odds with the others when it comes to the question of whether the world needs another economic bloc, believing focus should instead be on strengthening every economy, rather than acting in collectives.

Yerkes, Campling and Abouaoun seem less opposed to the notion of a new bloc, recognizing that US unipolarity seems to be on the way out. Nevertheless, they stress that the bloc’s value would be dependent on its make-up and its intentions.

Indeed, with the likes of Saudi Arabia potentially among its ranks, the BRICS could attain new levels of financial and diplomatic clout, transforming the international arena. 

“Historically, the dominance of the West, and its various international bodies and institutions, has been extremely self-serving, producing contradictory outcomes leading to a world that is more volatile and more uneven and increasingly depending on indebtedness,” Campling said.

“This has all been pushed in the interest of Europeans and the US. Maybe we should look to the 1970s and the Non-Aligned Movement — made up of many of those purportedly looking to join BRICS — for inspiration.”


Turkiye offers Iraq technical help to bolster border security

Updated 8 sec ago
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Turkiye offers Iraq technical help to bolster border security

ANKARA: Turkiye is in discussions with Iraq to provide technical assistance to Baghdad for securing its borders to prevent movements of outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants around the region, a Turkish defense ministry official said on Thursday.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan visited Baghdad and Irbil this week as Ankara ramped up cross-border operations against PKK militants based in mountainous, mainly Kurdish northern Iraq.
The two countries agreed to a strategic framework agreement overseeing security, trade and energy as well as a defense cooperation deal during the visit.
“We told our counterparts that Turkiye is ready to provide assistance to Iraq on border security systems,” the Turkish official told reporters.
A delegation from Iraq earlier visited Turkiye to examine the border security systems that Turkiye offered to provide, the official also said, adding that the discussions for security cooperation were still under way.
During a joint press conference with Erdogan on Monday, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani said the two countries would cooperate to bolster border security, without mentioning the PKK specifically.
The PKK took up arms against the Turkish state in 1984 and is designated a terrorist organization by Ankara and its Western allies. Turkiye has conducted a series of cross-border operations against the group in northern Iraq since 2019.

Blinken calls for US, China to manage differences

Updated 25 April 2024
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Blinken calls for US, China to manage differences

  • China has not announced plans for US Secretary of State to meet Xi Jinping
  • Antony Blinken is the first US secretary of state in 14 years to visit Shanghai

SHANGHAI: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Thursday on the United States and China to manage their differences “responsibly” as he went on a charm offensive ahead of expected tough talks.
A day before meeting Beijing’s top brass to tackle thorny issues including Russia, Taiwan and trade, Blinken’s visit to Shanghai has seen him sample local food, watch a basketball game and stroll along the city’s famous Bund promenade.
Visiting the local Communist Party leader in a room with sweeping views of the Shanghai skyline, Blinken said US President Joe Biden was committed to “direct and sustained” dialogue between the world’s two largest economies after years of mounting tension.
“I think it’s important to underscore the value — in fact, the necessity — of direct engagement, of speaking to each other, laying out our differences, which are real, seeking to work through them,” Blinken said.
“We have an obligation for our people — indeed an obligation to the world — to manage the relationship between our two countries responsibly.”
The Chinese Communist Party secretary for Shanghai, Chen Jining, welcomed Blinken partly in English and spoke of the importance of US businesses to the city.
“Whether we choose cooperation or confrontation affects the well-being of both peoples, both countries and the future of humanity,” Chen told him.
The country’s financial capital, Shanghai is often a stepping stone to power in China, with President Xi Jinping previously serving briefly in the city.
China has not announced plans for Blinken to meet Xi, although on Blinken’s last visit in June, they saw each other in a meeting announced at the last minute.
On Thursday, Blinken also met students at the Shanghai campus of New York University, where he voiced hope for more Americans to study in China.
He insisted the United States was committed to welcoming Chinese students.
Beijing has repeatedly alleged that Chinese nationals with valid travel documents, including students, have been subject to aggressive interrogations and deportations at US airports.
“President Biden and President Xi are determined to strengthen our people-to-people ties,” Blinken said.
Blinken, the first US secretary of state in 14 years to visit Shanghai, opened his visit Wednesday evening at a restaurant serving steamed buns.
Sporting a suit without a tie, he ate with his senior staff in a shopping arcade as curious onlookers snapped pictures.
Blinken then went to watch a basketball game between the Shanghai Sharks and Zhejiang Golden Bulls, staying until the end of the nail-biting play-off.
Such softer diplomacy, once a staple of US-China relations, would have been unimaginable until recently, with hawks in both countries speaking of an emerging new Cold War.
Blinken’s aides hope his smiling persona at public events draws an implicit contrast to his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov and his gruffer approach when he visited China earlier this month.
Blinken is expected to raise concerns about China’s relationship with Russia when he meets the leadership in Beijing.
Although US officials were initially pleased that Beijing has not shipped weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine, they now say that China’s alarm at Moscow’s setbacks on the battlefield has prompted it to export vast quantities of industrial supplies to Russia.
US officials believe China is more receptive to Western concerns as it seeks to focus on managing economic headwinds at home and wants to avoid friction with the West.
But China is also furious about a series of moves by Biden — who is facing a tough re-election fight in November against Donald Trump — they say serve to constrain the Chinese economy.
Most recently, the US Congress approved legislation that would force the divestment of blockbuster social media app TikTok from its Chinese owners or face a ban in the world’s largest economy.
Biden supports the legislation, arguing that TikTok, popular among young people, poses security and privacy concerns. China has accused the United States of unfair economic coercion.
Unusually, Trump has distanced himself from a TikTok ban. He has otherwise championed a tough line on China, with vows to raise tariffs drastically if he returns to office.
US officials also say that Blinken will encourage China to act with restraint as Taiwan inaugurates a new president next month.
China claims the self-governing democracy as its own and has not ruled out using force to seize it.
Privately, US officials were relieved by China’s approach during Taiwan’s election, believing that easing US-China tensions helped.
They assessed that Beijing’s assertive military moves did not go beyond past precedent.


Rwanda’s Hope Hostel once housed young genocide survivors. Now it’s ready for migrants from Britain

Updated 25 April 2024
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Rwanda’s Hope Hostel once housed young genocide survivors. Now it’s ready for migrants from Britain

KIGALI, Rwanda: Rwanda says it’s ready to receive migrants from the United Kingdom after British Parliament this week approved a long-stalled and controversial bill seeking to stem the tide of people crossing the English Channel in small boats by deporting some of them to the East African country.

There is even a place ready and waiting for the migrants — a refurbished Hope Hostel in the vibrant upscale neighborhood of Kagugu, an area of the Rwandan capital of Kigali that is home to many expats and several international schools.

The hostel once housed college students whose parents died in the 1994 genocide, this African nation’s most horrific period in history when an estimated 800,000 Tutsi were killed by extremist Hutu in massacres that lasted over 100 days.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has pledged the deportation flights would begin in July but has refused to provide details or say about how many people would be deported.

Rwanda government’s deputy spokesperson Alain Mukuralinda told The Associated Press on Tuesday that authorities here have been planning for the migrants’ arrival for two years.

“Even if they arrive now or tomorrow, all arrangements are in place,” he said.

The plan was long held up in British courts and by opposition from human rights activists who say it is illegal and inhumane. It envisages deporting to Rwanda some of those who enter the UK illegally and migrant advocates have vowed to continue to fight against the plan.

The measure is also meant to be a deterrent to migrants who risk their lives in leaky, inflatable boats in hopes that they will be able to claim asylum once they reach Britain. The UK also signed a new treaty with Rwanda to beef up protections for migrants, and adopted new legislation declaring Rwanda to be a safe country.

“The Rwanda critics and the UK judges who earlier said Rwanda is not a safe country have been proven wrong,” Mukuralinda said. “Rwanda is safe.”

The management at the four-story Hope Hostel says the facility is ready and can accommodate 100 people at full capacity. The government says it will serve as a transit center and that more accommodations would be made available as needed.

Thousands of migrants arrive in Britain every year.

After they arrive from Britain, the migrants will be shown to their rooms to rest, after which they will be offered food and given some orientation points about Kigali and Rwanda, said hostel manager Ismael Bakina.

Tents will be set up within the hostel’s compound for processing their documentation and for various briefings. The site is equipped with security cameras, visible across the compound.

Within the compound are also entertainment places, a mini-soccer field, a basketball and a volleyball court as well as a red-carpeted prayer room. For those who want to light up, “there is even a smoking room,” Bakina explained.

Meals will be prepared in the hostel’s main kitchen but provisions are also being made for those who want to prepare their own meals, he said. The migrants will be free to walk outside the hostel and even visit the nearby Kigali city center.

“We will have different translators, according to (their) languages,” Bakina added, saying they include English and Arabic.

The government has said the migrants will have their papers processed within the first three months. Those who want to remain in Rwanda will be allowed to do so while authorities will also assist those who wish to return to their home countries.

While in Rwanda, migrants who obtain legal status — presumably for Britain — will also be processed, authorities have said, though it’s unclear what that means exactly.

For those who choose to stay, Mukurilinda said Rwanda’s government will bear full financial and other responsibilities for five years, after which they will be considered integrated into the society.

At that point, they can start managing on their own.


Russia vetoes a UN resolution calling for the prevention of a dangerous nuclear arms race in space

Updated 25 April 2024
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Russia vetoes a UN resolution calling for the prevention of a dangerous nuclear arms race in space

  • The vetoed resolution sought to call on all countries not to develop or deploy nuclear arms or other weapons of mass destruction in space
  • Russia dismissed the resolution as “absolutely absurd and politicized” and didn’t go far enough in banning all types of weapons in space

UNITED NATIONS:  Russia on Wednesday vetoed a UN resolution sponsored by the United States and Japan calling on all nations to prevent a dangerous nuclear arms race in outer space, calling it “a dirty spectacle” that cherry picks weapons of mass destruction from all other weapons that should also be banned.
The vote in the 15-member Security Council was 13 in favor, Russia opposed and China abstaining.
The resolution would have called on all countries not to develop or deploy nuclear arms or other weapons of mass destruction in space, as banned under a 1967 international treaty that included the US and Russia, and to agree to the need to verify compliance.
US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said after the vote that Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow has no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in space.

US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield addresses members of the UN Security Council during a meeting on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons on April 24, 2024. (AP)

“Today’s veto begs the question: Why? Why, if you are following the rules, would you not support a resolution that reaffirms them? What could you possibly be hiding,” she asked. “It’s baffling. And it’s a shame.”
Putin was responding to White House confirmation in February that Russia has obtained a “troubling” anti-satellite weapon capability, although such a weapon is not operational yet.
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Wednesday echoed Thomas-Greenfield, reiterating that “the United States assesses that Russia is developing a new satellite carrying a nuclear device.” If Putin has no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in space, Sullivan said, “Russia would not have vetoed this resolution.”

Russia’s UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia dismissed the resolution as “absolutely absurd and politicized,” and said it didn’t go far enough in banning all types of weapons in space.
Russia and China proposed an amendment to the US-Japan draft that would call on all countries, especially those with major space capabilities, “to prevent for all time the placement of weapons in outer space, and the threat of use of force in outer spaces.”
The vote was 7 countries in favor, 7 against, and one abstention and the amendment was defeated because it failed to get the minimum 9 “yes” votes required for adoption.
The US opposed the amendment, and after the vote Nebenzia addressed the US ambassador saying: “We want a ban on the placement of weapons of any kind in outer space, not just WMDs (weapons of mass destruction). But you don’t want that. And let me ask you that very same question. Why?”
He said much of the US and Japan’s actions become clear “if we recall that the US and their allies announced some time ago plans to place weapons … in outer space.”
Nebenzia accused the US of blocking a Russian-Chinese proposal since 2008 for a treaty against putting weapons in outer space.
Thomas-Greenfield accused Russia of undermining global treaties to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, irresponsibly invoking “dangerous nuclear rhetoric,” walking away from several of its arms control obligations, and refusing to engage “in substantive discussions around arms control or risk reduction.”
She called Wednesday’s vote “a real missed opportunity to rebuild much-needed trust in existing arms control obligations.”
Thomas-Greenfield’s announcement of the resolution on March 18 followed White House confirmation in February that Russia has obtained a “troubling” anti-satellite weapon capability, although such a weapon is not operational yet.
Putin declared later that Moscow has no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in space, claiming that the country has only developed space capabilities similar to those of the US.
Thomas-Greenfield said before the vote that the world is just beginning to understand “the catastrophic ramifications of a nuclear explosion in space.”
It could destroy “thousands of satellites operated by countries and companies around the world — and wipe out the vital communications, scientific, meteorological, agricultural, commercial, and national security services we all depend on,” she said.
The defeated draft resolution said “the prevention of an arms race in outer space would avert a grave danger for international peace and security.” It would have urged all countries carrying out activities in exploring and using outer space to comply with international law and the UN Charter.
The draft would have affirmed that countries that ratified the 1967 Outer Space Treaty must comply with their obligations not to put in orbit around the Earth “any objects” with weapons of mass destruction, or install them “on celestial bodies, or station such weapons in outer space.”
The treaty, ratified by some 114 countries, including the US and Russia, prohibits the deployment of “nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction” in orbit or the stationing of “weapons in outer space in any other manner.”
The draft resolution emphasized “the necessity of further measures, including political commitments and legally binding instruments, with appropriate and effective provisions for verification, to prevent an arms race in outer space in all its aspects.”
It reiterated that the UN Conference on Disarmament, based in Geneva, has the primary responsibility to negotiate agreements on preventing an arms race in outer space.
The 65-nation body has achieved few results and has largely devolved into a venue for countries to voice criticism of others’ weapons programs or defend their own. The draft resolution would have urged the conference “to adopt and implement a balanced and comprehensive program of work.”
At the March council meeting where the US-Japan initiative was launched, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that “geopolitical tensions and mistrust have escalated the risk of nuclear warfare to its highest point in decades.”
He said the movie “Oppenheimer” about Robert Oppenheimer, who directed the US project during World War II that developed the atomic bomb, “brought the harsh reality of nuclear doomsday to vivid life for millions around the world.”
“Humanity cannot survive a sequel to Oppenheimer,” the UN chief said.
 


Long-awaited US military aid no ‘silver bullet’ for Ukraine

Updated 25 April 2024
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Long-awaited US military aid no ‘silver bullet’ for Ukraine

  • Kyiv has been heavily reliant on billions of dollars of US military aid in its war with Russia following Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February 2022

WASHINGTON, United States: The United States is the first to acknowledge that its long-awaited $61 billion aid package for Ukraine is not a "silver bullet."

As weapons and ammunition are rushed to the country, other issues such as manpower shortages in Kyiv's struggling military have come to the fore.

Meanwhile, the monthslong delay in passing the aid package — caused by wrangling among US lawmakers — has further weakened Ukraine's position on the battleground, according to analysts.

President Joe Biden, who quickly signed the law Wednesday after it passed Congress, said the bill "should have gotten there sooner."

Jake Sullivan, his National Security Advisor, said the aid package "will make a difference," but warned "there is no silver bullet in this conflict."

"One capability is not going to be the ultimate solution," Sullivan told a White House briefing, though he added "Ukraine's position in this conflict will improve and we believe that Ukraine can and will win."

Kyiv has been heavily reliant on billions of dollars of US military aid in its war with Russia following Moscow's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

But in recent months Ukrainian forces — outgunned and outmanned — have struggled to hold back Russian troops.

And in the United States — Ukraine's largest provider of military assistance — a bogged-down Congress had not approved large-scale funding for Kyiv since December 2022 before the new package was passed this week.

It contains nearly $14 billion to train, equip and finance the needs of the Ukrainian army.

Manpower shortage

Garret Martin, of the American University School of International Service in Washington, said the delay by US lawmakers in passing the aid package "had a cost."

"The aid can shore up Ukraine but it's not a magic wand that could fix all the challenges they face," Martin said.

"What the package cannot do is deal with the shortage of manpower," he added.

Biden and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky have discussed the manpower issue, according to the White House.

In April, Kyiv reduced the minimum age for military conscription from 27 to 25, making thousands more men eligible for the draft.

And this week, it stopped issuing new passports abroad to military-aged Ukrainian men, as part of measures to push them to return home and fight.

Max Bergmann, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that the impact of American aid would depend on European efforts.

"European nations need to ramp up (weapons) production now," Bergmann said.

"Europe's goal should be to put itself in a position to potentially fill a future gap left by the United States should it not pass another supplemental."

Bergmann said that Ukraine should use 2024 to "hold the line, exhaust and attrit Russian forces," with next year possibly presenting an opportunity for a Kyiv offensive.