China threatens retaliation if Taiwan president Tsai and US House speaker McCarthy meet

Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen is scheduled to transit through New York on March 30 before heading to Guatemala and Belize. (AFP)
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Updated 29 March 2023
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China threatens retaliation if Taiwan president Tsai and US House speaker McCarthy meet

  • Diplomatic pressure against Taiwan has ramped up recently, with Beijing poaching Taipei’s dwindling number of diplomatic allies

BEIJING: China has threatened “resolute countermeasures” over a planned meeting between Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen and US House speaker Kevin McCarthy during an upcoming visit in Los Angeles by the head of the self-governing island democracy.

Diplomatic pressure against Taiwan has ramped up recently, with Beijing poaching Taipei’s dwindling number of diplomatic allies while also sending military fighter jets flying toward the island on a near daily basis. Earlier this month, Honduras established diplomatic relations with China, leaving Taiwan with only 13 countries that recognize it as a sovereign state.

Tsai framed the trip as a chance to show Taiwan’s commitment to democratic values on the world stage, as she left Taiwan Wednesday afternoon to begin her 10-day tour of the Americas.

“I want to tell the whole world democratic Taiwan will resolutely safeguard the values of freedom and democracy, and will continue to be a force for good in the world, continuing a cycle of goodness, strengthening the resilience of democracy in the world,” she told reporters before she boarded the plane. “External pressure will not obstruct our resolution to engage with the world.”

Tsai is scheduled to transit through New York on March 30 before heading to Guatemala and Belize. On April 5, she’s expected to stop in Los Angeles on her way back to Taiwan, at which time the meeting with McCarthy is tentatively scheduled.

The US stops are the most closely watched of her trip.

Spokesperson for the Cabinet’s Taiwan Affairs Office Zhu Fenglian at a news conference Wednesday denounced Tsai’s stopover on her way to diplomatic allies in Central America and demanded that no US officials meet with her.

“We firmly oppose this and will take resolute countermeasures,” Zhu said. The US should “refrain from arranging Tsai Ing-wen’s transit visits and even contact with American officials, and take concrete actions to fulfill its solemn commitment not to support Taiwan independence,” she said.

Transit visits through the United States during broader international travel by the Taiwanese president have been routine over the years, senior US officials in Washington and Beijing have underscored to their Chinese counterparts.

In such unofficial visits in recent years, Tsai has met with members of Congress and the Taiwanese diaspora and has been welcomed by the chairperson of the American Institute in Taiwan, the US government-run nonprofit that carries out unofficial relations with Taiwan.

Tsai transited through the United States six times between 2016 and 2019 before slowing international travel with the coronavirus pandemic. In reaction to those visits, China lashed out rhetorically against the US and Taiwan.

However, the planned meeting with McCarthy has triggered fears of a heavy-handed Chinese reaction amid heightened frictions between Beijing and Washington over US support for Taiwan, trade and human rights issues.

Following a visit by then-House speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in 2022, Beijing launched missiles over the area, deployed warships across the median line of the Taiwan Strait and carried out military exercises in a simulated blockade of the island. Beijing also suspended climate talks with the US and restricted military-to-military communication with the Pentagon.

McCarthy, R-Calif., has said he would meet with Tsai when she is in the US and has not ruled out the possibility of traveling to Taiwan in a show of support.

Beijing sees official American contact with Taiwan as encouragement to make the island’s decades-old de facto independence permanent, a step US leaders say they don’t support. Pelosi, D-Calif., was the highest-ranking elected American official to visit the island since then-Speaker Newt Gingrich in 1997. Under the “One China” policy, the US acknowledges Beijing’s view that it has sovereignty over Taiwan, but considers Taiwan’s status as unsettled. Taipei is an important partner for Washington in the Indo-Pacific.

US officials are increasingly worried about China attempting to make good on its long-stated goal of bringing Taiwan under its control by force if necessary. The sides split amid civil war in 1949 and Beijing sees US politicians conspiring with Tsai’s pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party to make the separation permanent and stymy China’s rise as a global power.

The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, which has governed US relations with the island, does not require Washington to step in militarily if China invades but makes it American policy to ensure Taiwan has the resources to defend itself and to prevent any unilateral change of status by Beijing.

Tensions spiked earlier this year when President Joe Biden ordered a Chinese spy balloon shot down after it traversed the continental United States. The Biden administration has also said US intelligence findings show that China is weighing sending arms to Russia for its ongoing war in Ukraine, but has no evidence Beijing has done so yet.

China, however, has provided Russia with an economic lifeline and political support, and President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met in Moscow earlier this month. That was the first face-to-face meeting between the allies since before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine more than a year ago.

The Biden administration postponed a planned visit to Beijing by Secretary of State Antony Blinken following the balloon controversy but has signaled it would like to get such a visit back on track.


India, EU agree on trade deal slashing tariffs on 99.5% of Indian exports

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India, EU agree on trade deal slashing tariffs on 99.5% of Indian exports

  • Agreement expected to be signed later this year and come into force in early 2027
  • Duty cuts on 99.5% Indian exports to EU unlikely to offset US tariff impact, expert says

NEW DELHI: India and the EU have concluded negotiations on a deal creating a free trade zone of 2 billion people, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Tuesday.

Talks for the pact, referred to by both leaders as the “mother of all deals,” started in 2007 and stalled repeatedly over the years, with the negotiation process only speeding up last year, following new US tariff polices.

The agreement is expected to be signed later this year and may come into force in early 2027.

“People around the world are calling it the ‘mother of all deals.’ This agreement brings huge opportunities for India’s 1.4 billion people and for millions of people across European countries,” Modi said during a joint press conference with Von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa in New Delhi.

“It represents 25 percent of the global GDP and one-third of global trade.”

The deal paves the way for India to open its vast market to free trade with the EU, its biggest trading partner, and gain preferential access for almost all of its exports to the 27-nation European bloc.

“We have created a free trade zone of 2 billion people, with both sides set to gain economically,” Von der Leyen said. “We have sent a signal to the world that rules-based cooperation still delivers great outcomes.”

The conclusion of negotiations comes as US President Donald Trump slapped India with 50 percent tariffs and has threatened to impose new duties on several EU countries unless they support his efforts to take over Greenland.

“This is a signal to the US that like-minded entities, EU and India, are willing to come together and work together,” Prof. Harsh V. Pant, vice president of the Observer Research Foundation, told Arab News.

“Here are two countries that are bringing in a greater predictability and less volatility in their relationship, and they will move ahead irrespective of what the US does.”

The deal is expected to double EU goods exports to India by 2032 as tariffs on 96.6 percent of EU goods exports — from automobiles and industrial goods to wine and chocolates — will be eliminated or reduced, saving up to $4.75 billion per year in duties on European products, according to a European Commission press release on Tuesday.

At the same time, the EU will eliminate or reduce tariffs on 99.5 percent of goods imported from India over seven years, India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry said in a statement, projecting gains mainly in labor-intensive sectors like textiles, leather, marine products, gems and jewelry.

“Indian services will also benefit from the trade deal. But, more than just export growth, the deal is part of a broader EU-India alliance on green tech, critical raw materials, digital rules and other aspects, which should channelize higher FDI (foreign direct investment) into India,” said Dr. Anupam Manur, professor of economics at the Takshashila Institution.

“India can potentially have a welfare and income gain of 0.5 percent of its GDP in the long run. It would also boost Indian exports to the EU by about $5 billion from the current level of about $76 billion.”

The agreement is unlikely to fully compensate for a slowdown in trade with the US.

“In the near term, this will partially offset the loss of exports to the US due to tariffs but cannot be expected to entirely mitigate it. Shifting supply chains and exports take time,” Manur said.

“The implementation of the FTA would take about a year’s time. The deal is expected to come into force by early 2027.”