ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Monday the budget for fiscal year 2023-24, due to be presented on June 9, would bring economic prosperity, business friendly policies and public welfare to the country, as an International Monetary Fund bailout deal remains elusive after months of talks. 

Millions of Pakistanis are struggling to cope as Pakistan's annual inflation rate rose to 37.97% in May, setting a national record for the second month in a row and adding to the South Asian nation's problems of a balance of payment crisis and the risk of a sovereign default. Inflation has been on an upward trend since early this year after the government took painful measures as part of fiscal adjustments demanded by the IMF to unlock stalled funding.

The IMF demands include the withdrawal of subsidies, a hike in energy prices, a market-based exchange rate and new taxation to generate extra revenue in a supplementary budget.

Islamabad says it has met the demands, but the IMF has yet to release the $1.1 billion funding stalled since November as part of the $6.5 billion Extended Fund Facility agreed in 2019.

The funding is critical for Pakistan to unlock other bilateral and multilateral financing. The IMF program is set to expire on June 30 this year.

“The central point of the fiscal year 2023-24 budget is going to be economic prosperity, public welfare and business friendly policies,” the prime minister said in a statement, as he approved increasing the Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) from Rs700 billion to Rs950 billion to boost growth and create job opportunities.

The statement came after the prime minister held a detailed meeting with coalition partners in Islamabad to incorporate their proposals in the upcoming budget.

“The government is endeavouring to ensure prudent utilisation of all available resources despite economic challenges,” he said, promising to allocate a “sufficient amount” for those affected by floods last year and start a flood response program to deal with the disaster in future.

Floods from record monsoon rains in Pakistan and glacial melt in the country’s mountainous north last year affected 33 million people and killed over 1,500, washing away homes, roads, railways, bridges, livestock and crops in damage estimated at $30 billion.

Separately, the Prime Minister’s Coordinator for Economy and Energy, Bilal Azhar Kayani, told Arab News Sharif’s government would be presenting a “pro-investor and pro-poor budget.”

He declined to share the total outlay of the budget or its revenue and taxation targets, saying: “These details will be revealed in the National Assembly on the budget day.”

He said finance ministry officials, including Finance Minister Senator Ishaq Dar, were meeting all stakeholders, including industrialists and professionals, to get their input on the budget: “We will be trying to entertain proposals of all stakeholders to make an investor friendly budget.”

Economists said the country’s net federal receipts were not sufficient to even pay for the markup and the government had to take domestic and foreign loans to bear all expenditures.

“Pakistan’s budget is in serious distress and in need of serious repair,” Dr Khaqan Hassan Najeeb, a former economic adviser to the government, told Arab News.  

He said that a look at the budget of FY-23 would reveal that Pakistan’s net federal receipts with the federal government would not be sufficient to even pay for the markup which had risen from the budgeted amount of Rs 3900 billion to Rs 5300 billion.  

“It is unfortunate that all other expenditures would have to be borne by taking domestic and foreign loans,” he said, adding that the same fact would become even larger as the markup payment for the FY-24 budget would be much bigger considering the rise of the policy rate to 21 percent.

“The borrowing needs would be higher without meaningful expenditure and tax reforms,” Najeeb said. “Without containment of a fiscal deficit to near 5 percent of GDP on a permanent basis Pakistan’s fiscal and debt sustainability will never be ensured.”

The Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) suggested the government ensure tax reforms in the country and add new taxpayers to boost revenue.

“The taxation system in Pakistan contributes less than 10 percent of the GDP to the national exchequer, indicating that it is not balanced, broad-based and simplified,” Irfan Iqbal Sheikh, President FPCCI, told Arab News.

The taxation system's heavy reliance on indirect taxation and surcharges was damaging the economy, he said, adding that taxes were insufficient for debt servicing, defence, social welfare and public-sector development programs.

Sheikh said the upcoming federal budget was a golden opportunity for the government and the business community alike to agree upon and introduce budgetary measures and policies to enable industrial growth in Pakistan, explore avenues for import substitution and revive sick units through targeted, phased and result-oriented fiscal measures.  

“Industrialization is the key to wealth creation and reversing the trend of dwindling per capita income in the country; bridge trade deficit and create employment in these difficult times,” he said.

“We can only have healthy foreign exchange reserves on a sustainable basis if our industry earns substantive sums in a number of industrial sectors like many of our regional and sub-regional countries.”

RIYADH: With metals and mining being identified as one of the 13 strategic sectors to focus on to achieve the goals outlined in Vision 2030, the Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund’s joint venture with Saudi Arabian Mining Co., also known as Ma’aden, will help unlock the potential of the mineral wealth in the nation, a top official said. 

In an interview with Arab News, Mohammed Aldawood, head of industrials and mining sector for Middle East and North Africa investments at the Public Investment Fund, said that the joint venture will help to establish the mining sector as the third pillar of the Kingdom’s economy, along with providing an opportunity to explore new territories. 

“We (PIF) plan to support the growth of mining as a key enabler of this mission to help establish the industry as the third pillar of the economy. Saudi Arabia is fortunate to be endowed with healthy mineral reserves that are currently underexplored. We estimate that there is as much as $1.3 trillion in untapped resources sitting under the ground in the country,” said Aldawood. 

He added: “This is a really exciting development that is going to give the PIF and Ma’aden an extensive international footprint in the mining space. It’s going to give the partners a platform to access minerals not available in Saudi Arabia and gives us an opportunity to move into new geographical territories.” 

It was in January that Ma’aden and the PIF agreed to form a joint venture to invest in mining assets globally. 

Ma’aden will own 51 percent of the venture while the PIF will own 49 percent.

The new venture’s strategy will initially focus on investing in iron ore, copper, nickel and lithium as a non-operating partner taking minority equity positions.

Mohammed Aldawood, Head of industrials and mining sector for Middle East and North Africa investments at PIF

Aldawood said that the new venture’s strategy “will initially focus on investing in iron ore, copper, nickel and lithium as a non-operating partner taking minority equity positions.”  

“When we commence the partnership, the company’s paid-up capital will amount to $50 million and we will review that as operations grow. We have agreed if additional funding is required, both PIF and Ma’aden will fund the new company up to $3.12 billion,” he added. 

Rising demand for critical minerals

Aldawood also talked about the growing electric vehicle market segment where the demand for critical minerals is growing, amid insufficient investments globally by mining firms. 

Citing consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie, Aldawood said that mining companies will need to invest nearly $1.7 trillion over the next decade to accelerate the shift to a low-carbon world. 

The PIF official further said that the fund will work with large mining companies and trading houses in developing projects to address the acute shortage of future minerals as the world undergoes an energy transition where demand for critical minerals will rise sky-high. 

“Through our JV with Ma’aden and our combined skills sets and knowledge of the industry, I am confident that we will play a role in the critical minerals supply response for the EV value chain. We’ll work with large mining companies and trading houses in developing projects that address an expected acute shortage in future minerals and ensure that Saudi Arabia retains a leading position,” Aldawood added. 

According to Aldawood, the PIF is committed to bringing core mining projects to life, supplying the world with critical minerals, and helping to meet decarbonization targets at the same time. 

“The PIF has all the right attributes to be successful in this journey. We have access to capital and the appetite to invest globally and across the life cycle of an asset,” he said. 

JV with Baosteel and Saudi Aramco

In May, the PIF, Saudi Arabian Oil Co. and China-based Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. signed a shareholders’ agreement to establish an integrated steel plate manufacturing complex in the Kingdom. 

Aldawood said that this new facility will be the first of its kind in the Gulf Cooperation Council region, and will help advance the regional steel industry ecosystem. 

“The project aims to enhance the domestic manufacturing sector through localizing the production of heavy steel plates, transferring knowledge and creating additional export opportunities. It’s a significant investment and a vital development for the industry,” Aldawood noted. 

This JV complex is expected to be located in Ras Al-Khair Industrial City, and the facility would have a steel plate production capacity of up to 1.5 million tons per year.

According to Aldawood, this investment decision has been made to significantly reduce the reliance on imported steel and to serve more customers in several strategic industrial sectors including pipelines, shipbuilding, rig manufacturing, offshore platform fabrication plus tank and pressure vessel manufacturing.

“As with our investment in the mining sector, the investment aligns with the PIF’s strategy to unlock the capabilities of promising sectors and strategically important industries that can drive diversification of the local economy,” Aldawood concluded.