Early elections on the cards as Sharif government loses Punjab by-polls — analysts

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is likely to witness early elections after the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party secured a resounding victory in the recent by-elections held in Punjab, said political analysts on Monday, adding that fresh polls would also bring about political and economic stability in the country.
The PTI won 15 provincial assembly seats while the country’s ruling coalition, led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party, only secured victory in four provincial constituencies. One candidate won as independent, according to official results released by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP).
In Punjab, the PTI and its coalition partners now enjoy the support of 188 lawmakers in the 381-member house and can comfortably get their candidate elected as the province’s chief minister on July 22 when a re-election will be held for the coveted slot.
“PTI now seems comfortable to get its candidate elected as chief minister in Punjab after a thumping victory in the by-polls, and after this the ruling coalition at the center will only be limited to the federal capital,” Dr. Rasul Bakhsh Rais, professor of political science at LUMS university, told Arab News.
He said the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif could dissolve the National Assembly in October or November to pave the way for early elections.
“Imran Khan is demanding fresh elections since his ouster from power in April,” he said. “He will now increase pressure on the federal government for early polls to keep his political capital intact.”
Rais said the ruling coalition would try to delay the general elections until February or March next year to consolidate its political strength which it appeared to have lost in the Sunday by-polls in Punjab.
“The ruling coalition should call fresh elections as early as possible to avoid further political and economic instability in the country,” he suggested.
As per the parliamentary calendar, the general elections in Pakistan are scheduled to take place in August 2023, but analysts said the country’s ruling coalition could now find it difficult to complete its term.
“The Punjab by-polls have proven as a referendum against the ruling coalition, and all political parties should now sit together to mutually decide a timeframe for next elections,” Adnan Rehmat, a political analyst, told Arab News.
He said the PTI and its coalition partners were in comfortable position in Punjab after the by-polls to get their candidate elected as chief minister. “Fresh elections are inevitable now and October-November seems to be a suitable time for the polls,” he said.
PTI chairman Imran Khan and parties in the ruling coalition, PML-N and Pakistan Peoples Party, are holding separate meetings today to discuss the outcome of the by-polls and their future strategy.
Zebunnisa Burki, a political analyst who works with The News International, said the situation would become clear in the next two to three days since all political parties were scheduled to hold their meetings to discuss their strategy after the Punjab by-elections.
“The ruling coalition is clearly on a weak footing now and it doesn’t make any sense both politically and practically to keep clinging to power after a crushing defeat in Punjab,” she told Arab News.
Burki said the political graph of former prime minister Imran Khan was “very high” while the PML-N was still trying to devise a political strategy and forge unity within its ranks before going to next elections.
She added the PML-N and its coalition partners were in a tough situation, though “there seems to be no other option except going for elections to seek fresh mandate of the public.”