Pandemic to cost Arab economies $200bn by end of 2021: World Bank

13 out of 16 Arab economies will have lower living standards than pre-pandemic at the end of 2021. (Shutterstock)
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Updated 08 October 2021
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Pandemic to cost Arab economies $200bn by end of 2021: World Bank

  • MENA GDP contracted 3.8 percent in 2020 and is forecast to grow 2.8 percent in 2021

RIYADH: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s economic losses will amount to almost $200 billion by the end of 2021 as a result of the pandemic, the World Bank estimated.

The region’s GDP contracted by 3.8 percent in 2020 and is forecast to grow by 2.8 percent in 2021, the multilateral lender said in a report.

Costs of the pandemic losses are calculated by comparing where the region’s GDP would have been if the pandemic had not hit, the bank said.

Thirteen out of 16 countries in the region will have lower standards of living in 2021 than their pre-COVID levels, and recovery will depend on a rapid and equitable rollout of vaccines.

Some sectors have been hit harder than others by the pandemic. Middle Eastern airlines will endure losses of $4.2 billion in 2021, down from $7.9 billion in 2020, as pandemic travel restrictions remain in place in much of the world, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Losses will be equal to 13.8 percent of revenues in 2021, an improvement from 28.9 percent in 2020, but still an historically bad number. Demand will be 67.6 percent lower than 2019 levels, while capacity will shrink 58.9 percent, IATA said.

However, there are reasons for optimism. 

A resurgence of global economic activity has lifted merchandise trade above its pre-pandemic peak, the World Trade Organization said Monday as it upgraded its 2021 and 2022 trade forecasts.

"The WTO is now predicting global merchandise trade volume growth of 10.8 percent in 2021 – up from 8.0 percent forecasted in March – followed by a 4.7 percent rise in 2022," up from four percent previously, the global trade body said.

The strong annual growth rate for merchandise trade in 2021 is mainly due to the collapse in 2020, when trade bottomed out in the second quarter.


Global ESG sukuk market projected to surpass $50bn thanks to funding diversification

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Global ESG sukuk market projected to surpass $50bn thanks to funding diversification

RIYADH: The global sukuk market linked to environmental, social, and governance principles is expected to exceed $50 billion in the next two years driven by funding diversification goals. 

According to Fitch Ratings, other factors catalyzing the growth of these Shariah-compliant debt products include new ESG mandates, regulatory frameworks, and government-led sustainability initiatives. 

The report highlights that the global ESG sukuk rose by 60.3 percent year-on-year to reach $40 billion outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2024. 

Bashar Al-Natoor, global head of Islamic Finance at Fitch Ratings, said: “Almost 99 percent of all Fitch-rated ESG sukuk are investment-grade. The year started with key regulatory initiatives, which could support standardization, ecosystem development, and aid transparency.”  

He added: “There is significant ESG sukuk growth potential, and continuous efforts and increasing confidence will be key to unlocking this.”  

The instrument, also known as green sukuk, is a Shariah-compliant financial tool wherein issuers utilize the proceeds solely to finance investments in renewable energy or other environmental assets. 

The credit rating agency added that sukuk has a significant share of ESG debt in core markets.  

“In the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries, ESG sukuk reached $15.9 billion outstanding, representing 45 percent of the ESG debt mix, with the balance in bonds,” said Fitch in the report.  

However, it added that the market could face challenges from factors like geopolitical tensions, high oil prices, and new Shariah requirements, which might alter sukuk credit risks. 

In April, another report from Fitch Ratings indicated that the issuance of this debt product would continue to grow in the remaining months of the year, albeit at a slower pace compared to the first quarter. 

The report highlighted that countries in the GCC accounted for 35 percent of the global outstanding sukuk. 

Fitch also revealed that the GCC debt capital market has reached $940 billion in outstanding sukuk and is steadily approaching the $1 trillion mark. 

In February, it projected that ESG sukuk would exceed 7.5 percent of the global outstanding Islamic bonds in the coming years. 


Egypt’s non-oil business shrinks for 41st straight month, PMI shows

Updated 08 May 2024
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Egypt’s non-oil business shrinks for 41st straight month, PMI shows

CAIRO: Egypt’s non-oil private sector continued to shrink in April despite a $35 billion investment deal signed with the UAE in February and an $8 billion International Monetary Fund agreement in March, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index for Egypt edged down to 47.4 in April from 47.6 in March, remaining below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction for a 41st consecutive month.

“Business activity once again fell markedly as firms commented on difficult market conditions, with the decline leading to a renewed drop in employment,” S&P Global said.

The employment sub-index slipped to 49.7 in April from 50.8 in March.

Egypt signed an agreement with the IMF on March 6, with an initial $820 million payout received in April and a second, $820 million payout expected after an IMF review in June.

In granting the financial support, the IMF cited shocks to the Egyptian economy from the crisis in neighboring Gaza. Egypt devalued its currency on March 6 and hiked interest rates by 600 basis points as part of the deal.

The output sub-index climbed to 44.8 in April from 44.5 in March and the new orders index improved to 45.5 from 45.0. Business sentiment also improved, with the future output expectations index climbing to 55.3 in April from 52.2 in March.

“Sentiment was at a six-month high, reflecting hopes of exchange rate stability, lower prices and better material availability,” S&P Global said.

Meanwhile, global ratings agency Fitch last week revised Egypt’s outlook to positive from stable.

The agency affirmed Eygpt’s rating at ‘B-,’ citing reduced external financing risks and stronger foreign direct investment.

Foreign investors have poured billions of dollars into Egyptian treasury bills since the country announced the IMF loan program. After the investment in the country’s foreign portfolio and the support from the UAE, Egypt’s net foreign assets deficit shrank by $17.8 billion in March.

Fitch says that initial steps to contain off-budget spending should help to reduce public debt sustainability risks.

The country straddles North Africa and West Asia and has been grappling with an ongoing economic crisis linked to persistent foreign currency shortages. In the fourth quarter, its foreign debt climbed by $3.5 billion to $168.0 billion.

Meanwhile, Moody’s also revised its outlook on Egypt to “positive” in early March while affirming its ratings due to the high government debt ratio and weaker debt affordability compared to its peers.


Oil Updates – prices dip on rising US stockpiles, cautious supply expectations

Updated 08 May 2024
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Oil Updates – prices dip on rising US stockpiles, cautious supply expectations

NEW YORK: Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Wednesday as industry data showed a pile-up in crude and fuel inventories in the US, a sign of weak demand, and cautious supply expectations emerged ahead of an OPEC+ policy meeting next month, according to Reuters.

Brent crude oil futures fell 57 cents, or 0.69 percent, to $82.59 a barrel by 9:45 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 53 cents, or 0.68 percent, to $77.85 a barrel.

Both benchmarks fell marginally in the previous session on signs of easing supply tightness and weaker global oil demand from an Energy Information Administration forecast report on Tuesday.

US crude stocks rose by 509,000 barrels in the week ended May 3, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Gasoline and distillate fuel inventories also rose, they said.

“API numbers released overnight were moderately bearish due to stock builds in both crude and products ... Concern over weaker-than-usual US gasoline demand and this stock-build have weighed on the prompt RBOB gasoline crack,” ING analysts said in a client note.

Official US government data on stockpiles is due at 5:30 p.m. Saudi time. Analysts polled by Reuters expect US crude oil inventories to have fallen by about 1.1 million barrels last week.

Cautious expectations on supply cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies ahead of a June 1 policy meeting also weighed on markets.

“Oil prices have come under further pressure as noise around OPEC+ production policy grows,” the ING analysts said. “Expectations are that members will extend their additional voluntary supply cuts beyond the second quarter of this year.”

Meanwhile, hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza have also put pressure on oil prices in recent sessions, with some analysts saying the risk premium on oil declined in tandem.

“The fall in oil prices since Iran and Israel’s back-and-forth attacks suggests that some of the risk premium in prices has now unwound,” said economist Bill Weatherburn from Capital Economics in a client note.

“Prices continue to be supported by OPEC+ production cuts but we suspect that members will gradually unwind these cuts from July, pushing oil prices lower,” he added.

The US believes negotiations on a Gaza ceasefire should be able to close the gaps between Israel and Hamas. US Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns will travel to Israel on Wednesday for talks with the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other top officials, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Some analyst expectations that short-term demand remains well-supported limited overall price declines.

“Much talk of economic run cuts in recent weeks is overblown in our opinion, with margins still healthy enough, which means rather that Asian demand could rather pick up once turnarounds peak and diminish,” said Sparta Commodities analyst Neil Crosby. 


Saudi Arabia transforms SWCC into water authority to boost security

Updated 08 May 2024
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Saudi Arabia transforms SWCC into water authority to boost security

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s efforts to bolster its water security received a significant boost with the restructuring of the Saline Water Conversion Corp. into the Saudi Water Authority.

This transition, which includes the adoption of new organizational frameworks, aims to enhance oversight of water-related activities, optimize regulations, improve service management, and foster methodological development.

The approval from the Saudi Cabinet, chaired by King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, will further bolster the sustainability of water resources and advance the objectives of the National Water Strategy, aligning closely with the goals outlined in Vision 2030. Under the new regulations, the SWA will be tasked with developing and refining policies, plans, programs, and initiatives pertaining to the water sector.

Additionally, it will establish the requisite standards and regulations for licensing within its jurisdiction. Moreover, the authority will work to unify technical and engineering standards across the water sector to ensure adherence to local content and sustainability standards.


Saudi bank loans up by 11% in March to hit $712bn

Updated 07 May 2024
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Saudi bank loans up by 11% in March to hit $712bn

  • Real estate financing for corporate dealings specifically surged by 27 percent

RIYADH: Saudi banks’ loans totaled SR2.67 trillion ($711.5 billion) in March, marking an 11 percent increase as compared to the same month in 2023, according to the latest official data.

Figures released by the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, showed personal borrowings accounted for 35 percent of this growth, while the remaining 65 percent went to the corporate sector, particularly for real estate activities, as well as electricity, gas, and water supplies.
Real estate financing for corporate dealings specifically surged by 27 percent in the third month of the 2024, marking the highest annual growth rate in 10 months, reaching SR275.2 billion.
A study by Mortor Intelligence, which used 2023 as a base year, estimated the Kingdom’s real estate market at $69.51 billion in 2024, and expects it to reach $101.62 billion by 2029, growing at a compounded annual growth rate of 8 percent between 2024 and 2029.
The surge in real estate and construction endeavors may have heightened the need for debt-based financing primarily sourced from the local banking sector. Saudi banks play a central role in the provision of loans for real estate projects.
According to SAMA data, new retail residential mortgage loans experienced a notable increase, reaching a 14-month high at SR7.63 billion in March. This marked a 5 percent rise compared to the amount granted in the same month last year and a 10 percent increase from the previous month.

HIGHLIGHTS

• New retail residential mortgage loans experienced a notable increase, reaching a 14-month high at SR7.63 billion in March.

• SAMA data also revealed that financing for professional, scientific, and technical activities soared by 54 percent, hitting SR6.4 billion.

In March, lending for home purchases accounted for the largest portion, comprising 64 percent of new mortgages to individuals, totaling SR4.91 billion. The most notable growth, however, was observed in apartment loans, surging by 28 percent to reach SR2.24 billion. Meanwhile, land loans experienced a more modest growth of 4 percent, reaching SR474 million in new mortgages.
One factor contributing to this growth could be the need for residential properties from expatriates arriving in the Kingdom, along with government initiatives aimed at modernizing the financial system.
In a March study by Knight Frank, a notable trend emerged among expatriates, with 68 percent expressing a strong preference for owning an apartment rather than a villa. This inclination was especially prominent among individuals aged 35-45 and 45-55.
Growth in lending for electricity, gas and water supplies came as the second contributor in corporate loans after real estate, registering an annual rise of 27 percent to reach SR147.42 billion in March.
According to an April report by Global Data, the key sectors in the Saudi Arabia power market are the residential sector, commercial sector, industrial sector, and others. In 2023, the residential sector had the dominant share in the power consumption market.
SAMA data also revealed that financing for professional, scientific, and technical activities soared by 54 percent, hitting SR6.4 billion, marking the highest annual growth rate among sectors.
Education loans also showed robust growth, with an annual increase of 28 percent to reach SR6.27 billion. Additionally, financing for administrative and support service activities rose by 20 percent, totaling around SR34.22 billion.