CAIRO: Egypt’s non-oil private sector continued to shrink in April despite a $35 billion investment deal signed with the UAE in February and an $8 billion International Monetary Fund agreement in March, a survey showed on Wednesday.
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index for Egypt edged down to 47.4 in April from 47.6 in March, remaining below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction for a 41st consecutive month.
“Business activity once again fell markedly as firms commented on difficult market conditions, with the decline leading to a renewed drop in employment,” S&P Global said.
The employment sub-index slipped to 49.7 in April from 50.8 in March.
Egypt signed an agreement with the IMF on March 6, with an initial $820 million payout received in April and a second, $820 million payout expected after an IMF review in June.
In granting the financial support, the IMF cited shocks to the Egyptian economy from the crisis in neighboring Gaza. Egypt devalued its currency on March 6 and hiked interest rates by 600 basis points as part of the deal.
The output sub-index climbed to 44.8 in April from 44.5 in March and the new orders index improved to 45.5 from 45.0. Business sentiment also improved, with the future output expectations index climbing to 55.3 in April from 52.2 in March.
“Sentiment was at a six-month high, reflecting hopes of exchange rate stability, lower prices and better material availability,” S&P Global said.
Meanwhile, global ratings agency Fitch last week revised Egypt’s outlook to positive from stable.
The agency affirmed Egypt’s rating at ‘B-,’ citing reduced external financing risks and stronger foreign direct investment.
Foreign investors have poured billions of dollars into Egyptian treasury bills since the country announced the IMF loan program. After the investment in the country’s foreign portfolio and the support from the UAE, Egypt’s net foreign assets deficit shrank by $17.8 billion in March.
Fitch said that initial steps to contain off-budget spending should help to reduce public debt sustainability risks.
The country straddles North Africa and West Asia and has been grappling with an ongoing economic crisis linked to persistent foreign currency shortages. In the fourth quarter, its foreign debt climbed by $3.5 billion to $168.0 billion.
Meanwhile, Moody’s also revised its outlook on Egypt to “positive” in early March while affirming its ratings due to the high government debt ratio and weaker debt affordability compared to its peers.
