Saudi Arabia predicts budget surpluses from 2023: Ministry of Finance

The Saudi government aims to continue economic and fiscal reforms it has implemented under Vision 2030. (Shutterstock)
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Updated 12 December 2021
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Saudi Arabia predicts budget surpluses from 2023: Ministry of Finance

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is forecasting budget surpluses from 2023 as the economy experiences a “noticeable and anticipated uptick,” the Ministry of Finance said on Thursday.

The Kingdom will post a surplus of about SR27 billion in 2023, rising to SR42 billion in 2024, the ministry said in a report. That compares with a projected deficit of SR85 billion in 2021 and SR52 billion in 2022.

Government revenue will slip to SR903 billion in 2022 from SR930 billion in 2021, but will have reached SR992 billion by 2024, the Ministry of Finance said.

The extra revenue will come from government initiatives and reforms aimed at enhancing and developing non-oil revenues as the pandemic diminishes.

The government aims to sustain the spending ceilings approved last year for the medium-term, the ministry said. Expenditure is projected to reach approximately SR955 billion for fiscal year 2022 before falling to SR951 billion in fiscal year 2024.

The Saudi government aims to continue economic and fiscal reforms it has implemented under Vision 2030.

The annual borrowing plan is being prepared to meet funding needs within the framework of a medium-term debt strategy, through the coordination between the ministry and the National Debt Management Center.

Public debt is expected to reach SR989 billion by 2022, or 31.3 percent of GDP. The size of the public debt is anticipated to remain fixed in the medium-term whereas debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline 27.6 percent in fiscal year 2024.

While budget surpluses, projected to be realized starting in fiscal year 2023, are to be used to enhance government reserves, new debt issuances will be directed toward principal repayment, the MoF report said.

Government deposits at SAMA are expected to exceed initial projections in the fiscal year 2022, and to continue to grow due to expected surpluses in fiscal year 2023 and fiscal year 2024.

Saudi oil revenues are expected to reach SR545 billion by the end of 2021, while total state revenues could reach SR925 billion, according to Al-Rajhi Capital.

The investment bank based its estimates on Brent prices of $75 per barrel, with a Saudi average oil production of 9.1 million barrels per day, of which 6.2 million to be exported by the end of the year.

The bank's estimate for non-oil revenue is at SR380 billion, unchanged from an earlier forecast, and it is driven by the increase in VAT last year to 15 percent from 10 percent.


Inaugural EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials reflects shared policy commitment

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Inaugural EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials reflects shared policy commitment

RIYADH: The EU–Saudi Arabia Business and Investment Dialogue on Advancing Critical Raw Materials Value Chains, held in Riyadh as part of the Future Minerals Forum, brought together senior policymakers, industry leaders, and investors to advance strategic cooperation across critical raw materials value chains.

Organized under a Team Europe approach by the EU–GCC Cooperation on Green Transition Project, in coordination with the EU Delegation to Saudi Arabia, the European Chamber of Commerce in the Kingdom and in close cooperation with FMF, the dialogue provided a high-level platform to explore European actions under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act and ResourceEU alongside the Kingdom’s aspirations for minerals, industrial, and investment priorities.

This is in line with Saudi Vision 2030 and broader regional ambitions across the GCC, MENA, and Africa.

ResourceEU is the EU’s new strategic action plan, launched in late 2025, to secure a reliable supply of critical raw materials like lithium, rare earths, and cobalt, reducing dependency on single suppliers, such as China, by boosting domestic extraction, processing, recycling, stockpiling, and strategic partnerships with resource-rich nations.

The first ever EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials was opened by the bloc’s Ambassador to the Kingdom, Christophe Farnaud, together with Saudi Deputy Minister for Mining Development Turki Al-Babtain, turning policy alignment into concrete cooperation.

Farnaud underlined the central role of international cooperation in the implementation of the EU’s critical raw materials policy framework.

“As the European Union advances the implementation of its Critical Raw Materials policy, international cooperation is indispensable to building secure, diversified, and sustainable value chains. Saudi Arabia is a key partner in this effort. This dialogue reflects our shared commitment to translate policy alignment into concrete business and investment cooperation that supports the green and digital transitions,” said the ambassador.

Discussions focused on strengthening resilient, diversified, and responsible CRM supply chains that are essential to the green and digital transitions.

Participants explored concrete opportunities for EU–Saudi cooperation across the full value chain, including exploration, mining, and processing and refining, as well as recycling, downstream manufacturing, and the mobilization of private investment and sustainable finance, underpinned by high environmental, social, and governance standards.

From the Saudi side, the dialogue was framed as a key contribution to the Kingdom’s industrial transformation and long-term economic diversification agenda under Vision 2030, with a strong focus on responsible resource development and global market integration.

“Developing globally competitive mineral hubs and sustainable value chains is a central pillar of Saudi Vision 2030 and the Kingdom’s industrial transformation. Our engagement with the European Union through this dialogue to strengthen upstream and downstream integration, attract high-quality investment, and advance responsible mining and processing. Enhanced cooperation with the EU, capitalizing on the demand dynamics of the EU Critical Raw Materials Act, will be key to delivering long-term value for both sides,” said Al-Babtain.

Valere Moutarlier, deputy director-general for European industry decarbonization, and directorate-general for the internal market, industry, entrepreneurship and SMEs at European Commission, said the EU Critical Raw Materials Act and ResourceEU provided a clear framework to strengthen Europe’s resilience while deepening its cooperation with international partners.

“Cooperation with Saudi Arabia is essential to advancing secure, sustainable, and diversified critical raw materials value chains. Dialogues such as this play a key role in translating policy ambitions into concrete industrial and investment cooperation,” she added.