DUBAI: The price of oil surged on Monday to within a few cents of $80 a barrel, its highest level for nearly three years, as traders reassessed their outlook for global economic recovery amid tightening crude supply.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, ended the day at $79.60 a barrel — a 90 per cent rise in the last year — and analysts forecast higher demand for oil as the global economy recovered from the pandemic downturn more quickly than expected.
Damien Courvalin, commodities analyst at US bank Goldman Sachs, said: “While we have long held a bullish oil view, the current global oil supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected.” Global demand recovery from the impact of the coronavirus delta variant had been faster than previous estimates, he said, and Goldman raised its year-end forecast by $10 to $90 per barrel.
Christian Malek of JP Morgan restated his forecast of $100 per barrel as all commodities go through a “supercycle” in prices. “The oil supercycle is underway,” he said.
The recovery in oil prices from last spring has been in part driven by improving economic conditions around the world, but also to the action taken by OPEC+ — the alliance of producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia — to curb supplies when demand was weak.
Although OPEC+ has begun to reverse the cuts, with an extra 400,000 barrels per month allowed until Dec. 2022, Goldman said the oil market would be in “structural deficit” again in 2023 as demand exceeded supply and investment remained low.
Despite the increased OPEC+ output quotas, some big producers have found it difficult to meet the new limits and give the global market all it needs. Saudi Arabia, with the biggest spare capacity in OPEC+, will probablybe a big winner from rising prices and output.
Gas shortages in Europe and elsewhere are also likely to give a boost to oil prices. “Winter demand risks are further now squarely skewed to the upside as to the global gas shortage will increase oil-fired power generation,” Goldman said.
The next OPEC+ meeting will decide whether to stick to the agreed 400,000 increase, but faces a conundrum if prices continue to rise. Some energy experts believe US shale oil could be on the cusp of a resurgence that could eat into OPEC+ market share.
West Texas Intermediate, the US standard, rose above $75 a barrel yesterday, a level many producers will regard as sufficient to justify resuming drilling.
Oil hits top price in 3 years as global recovery gathers pace
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Oil hits top price in 3 years as global recovery gathers pace
- Analysts forecast higher demand for oil as the global economy recovered from the pandemic downturn more quickly than expected
Global brands shut Middle East stores as conflict causes chaos
- Luxury brands and retailers close stores in Middle East
- Conflict threatens the region that has been luxury’s fastest growing
- Mass-market retailers monitor situation, adjust operations in region
PARIS: In Dubai and other major Middle Eastern shopping hubs, many stores are closed or operating with a skeleton staff as the escalating conflict in the region causes chaos for businesses and travel.
The US-Israeli air war against Iran expanded on Monday with no end in sight, with Tehran firing missiles and drones at Gulf states as it retaliates for a weekend of bombing that killed Iran’s supreme leader and reportedly killed scores of Iranian civilians, including a strike on a girls’ primary school.
Chalhoub Group, which runs 900 stores for brands from Versace and Jimmy Choo to Sephora across the region, said its stores in Bahrain were closed, while other markets, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan remained open though staff attendance was “voluntary.”
“We operate with a lean team formed of members who volunteered and feel comfortable to come to the store,” Chalhoub’s Vice President of Communications Lynn al Khatib told Reuters, adding that the company’s leadership team personally visited Dubai Mall and Mall of the Emirates on Monday morning to check in with workers.
E-commerce giant Amazon closed its fulfillment center operations in Abu Dhabi, suspended deliveries across the region and instructed its employees in Saudi Arabia and Jordan to remain indoors, Business Insider reported on Monday, citing an internal memo.
Gucci-owner Kering said its stores were temporarily closed in the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar and it has suspended travel to the Middle East.
Luxury growth engine under threat
Shares in luxury groups LVMH, Hermes, and Cartier-owner Richemont were down 4 percent to 5.7 percent on Monday afternoon as investors digested the knock-on impacts of the conflict.
The Middle East still accounts for a small share of global spending on luxury — between 5 percent and 10 percent, according to RBC analyst Piral Dadhania. But the region was “luxury’s brightest performer” last year, according to consultancy Bain, while sales of expensive handbags have stalled in the rest of the world.
Now, shuttered airports have put an abrupt stop to tourism flows into the region and missile strikes — including one that damaged Dubai’s five-star Fairmont Palm hotel — are likely to dissuade travelers, particularly if the conflict drags on.
“If you assume that it’s a $5 billion to $6 billion (travel retail) market and let’s say it’s going to be shut down for a month, we are talking about hundreds of millions of dollars that are definitely at risk,” said Victor Dijon, senior partner at consultancy Kearney.
If Middle Eastern shoppers cannot travel to Paris or Milan, that could also hurt luxury sales in Europe, he added.
Luxury brands have been investing in lavish new stores and exclusive events across the region. Cartier unveiled a “high-jewelry” exhibition in Dubai’s Keturah Park just days before the conflict started.
Cartier and Richemont did not reply to requests for comment.
Luxury conglomerate LVMH has also bet big on the region. Last month, its flagship brand Louis Vuitton staged an exhibition at the Jumeirah Marsa Al Arab hotel, and beauty retailer Sephora launched its first Saudi beauty brand.
LVMH does not report specific figures for the region, but in January Chief Financial Officer Cecile Cabanis said the Middle East has been “displaying significant growth.” LVMH did not reply to a request for comment on how its business may be impacted by the conflict.
The Middle East has also attracted new investment from mass-market players. Budget fashion retailer Primark said in January that it plans to open three stores in Dubai in March, April and May, followed by stores in Bahrain and Qatar by the end of the year.
“Primark is set to open its first store in Dubai at the end of March but clearly this is a fast-moving situation which we are monitoring closely,” a spokesperson for Primark-owner Associated British Foods said.
Apple stores in Dubai will remain closed until Thursday morning, the company’s website showed, while Swedish fast-fashion retailer H&M said its stores in Bahrain and Israel are closed.
Consumer goods group Reckitt has told all employees in the Middle East to work from home, temporarily closed its Bahrain manufacturing site and suspended all business travel to the region until further notice.
