Goldman expects oil prices to hit $90 by year-end as supply tightens

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Updated 27 September 2021
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Goldman expects oil prices to hit $90 by year-end as supply tightens

  • Hurricane Ida's hit to supply has more than offset OPEC+'s production ramp-up since July with non-OPEC+ and non-shale production continuing to disappoint
  • Brent futures hit a near three-year high last week on global output disruptions

Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for year-end Brent crude oil prices to $90 per barrel from $80, as a faster fuel demand recovery from Delta variant and Hurricane Ida's hit to production led to tight global supplies.

Brent futures hit a near three-year high last week as global output disruptions have forced energy companies to pull large amounts of crude out of inventories.

Oil prices were trading at $79.19 a barrel, earlier on Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude were at $75.08 a barrel. 

"While we have long held a bullish oil view, the current global supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above-consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our below consensus forecasts," Goldman said in a note dated Sept. 26.

Earlier this month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed to stick to its decision made in July to phase out record output cuts. 

Hurricane Ida's hit to supply has more than offset OPEC+'s production ramp-up since July with non-OPEC+ and non-shale production continuing to disappoint, Goldman said.

Hurricane Ida and Nicholas, which swept through the U.S. Gulf of Mexico earlier this month, damaged platforms, pipelines and processing hubs, shutting most offshore production for weeks. 

Goldman, however, flagged a potential new virus variant, which could weigh on demand and an aggressively faster ramp-up in OPEC+ production that may soften its projected deficit, as key risks to its bullish outlook.

For 2022, the bank lowered its average forecasts for the second and fourth quarter to $80/bbl from $85/bbl as it factored in the possibility of an Iran-U.S. nuclear deal by next April.


Lloyd’s market engaging with US government over Gulf maritime plan, officials say

Updated 59 min 23 sec ago
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Lloyd’s market engaging with US government over Gulf maritime plan, officials say

LONDON: The Lloyd’s of London market is engaging with the US government’s International Development Finance Corporation ​over a plan to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf, Lloyd’s market officials said on Thursday.

“Lloyd’s is engaging constructively with the US Development Finance Corporation and relevant stakeholders, with a clear focus on ensuring that the Lloyd’s market continues to lead ‌as the global ‌center of excellence for ​war ‌risk ⁠insurance,” a ​Lloyd’s spokesperson ⁠said.

The Lloyd’s Market Association, which represents the interests of all underwriting businesses in the Lloyd’s market, welcomed the engagement of US President Donald Trump, its CEO Sheila Cameron said separately in a statement on Thursday.

“Since Sunday 1 March, there ⁠have been at least 40 transits of ‌vessels through the ‌Strait of Hormuz. There remain approximately ​1,000 vessels, approximately half of ‌which are oil and gas tankers, with ‌an aggregate hull value exceeding $25 billion in the Persian/Arabian Gulf and surrounding waters,” Cameron said, citing data.

Cameron added that the vast majority of these vessels were insured ‌in the London market and insurance “currently remains in place.”

Insurance broker Marsh said on ⁠Wednesday ⁠it had met with US officials to explore solutions for restoring maritime trade.

The US Navy could begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, Trump said on Tuesday, adding he had ordered the International Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf.

Earlier this week, London’s marine insurance market widened the area in the Gulf ​it deems as ​high risk as the conflict in the Middle East escalates.