WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Oil prices on an upward momentum this year despite new lockdowns in Europe

Short Url
Updated 09 January 2021
Follow

WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Oil prices on an upward momentum this year despite new lockdowns in Europe

  • The Brent crude oil price has surpassed $55 per barrel for the first time since February 2020 and closed the week nearly at $56 per barrel

This is the first weekly energy recap for 2021, and oil prices are on an upward momentum.

The Brent crude oil price has surpassed $55 per barrel for the first time since February 2020 and closed the week nearly at $56 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures have unexpectedly breached the $50 barrier for the first time since early 2020 and have closed the week at $52.24 per barrel despite the relatively unchanged market fundamentals.

The bullishness in the market that drove oil prices higher came amid the prospects for a deeper fiscal stimulus in the US, vaccine optimism and a weaker US dollar.

The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) large bullish draw to crude oil inventories by the end of 2020 and the bullish outcome from the OPEC+ first meeting in 2021 also contributed to the price increase.

The global stock rallies and gains in the US index futures likewise must have pushed the prices higher.

It is obvious that oil prices moved up, building on recent strong gains in stock markets with the three major US indexes pushing into record territory.

Clearly, stock market traders were unfazed by the chaos on Capitol Hill.

Oil prices have risen despite the new lockdowns in Europe that further delayed the prospects for demand recovery.

The outlook for colder-than-normal weather for Europe and the northern hemisphere should be supporting higher demand for heating oil as people turn up the heat during the lockdown. However, this factor is yet to clearly materialize on the petroleum refining margins. 

Although the year 2021 started with expectations for low oil prices, these hopes might be dashed as the prices have started to rise unexpectedly.

The most bullish outlook for oil price was for Brent crude prices to hit the $60-per-barrel barrier in the second quarter of 2021.

A sharp recovery in oil demand before the end of the first half of 2021 is driven by expectations of vaccine rollouts.

However, the EIA predicted Brent and WTI to average $48.53 and $45.78, respectively, in 2021. The EIA’s oil price outlook seems to be extremely bearish.

Speculators’ activities in the coming weeks will contribute to the near-term movement in oil prices.The recovery from the pandemic will accelerate once vaccines become widely available.

Until then, speculators might be completely wrong-footed with an unexpected oil price momentum despite bearish fundamentals.

At the same time, the vaccination drive and the economic stimulus will set the tone for oil demand recovery in 2021 with the year 2020 ending on a bullish note after a rollercoaster ride caused by the global coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

The latest figures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for the first week of 2021 shows that crude futures’ “long positions” on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) are at 678,712 contracts, rising by +24,677 contracts from the previous week (1,000 barrels for each contract).


Saudi investment pipeline active as reforms advance, says Pakistan minister

Updated 19 min 33 sec ago
Follow

Saudi investment pipeline active as reforms advance, says Pakistan minister

ALULA: Pakistan’s Finance Minister Mohammed Aurangzeb described Saudi Arabia as a “longstanding partner” and emphasized the importance of sustainable, mutually beneficial cooperation, particularly in key economic sectors.

Speaking to Arab News on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Aurangzeb said the relationship between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia remains resilient despite global geopolitical tensions.

“The Kingdom has been a longstanding partner of Pakistan for the longest time, and we are very grateful for how we have been supported through thick and thin, through rough patches and, even now that we have achieved macroeconomic stability, I think we are now well positioned for growth.”

Aurangzeb said the partnership has facilitated investment across several sectors, including minerals and mining, information technology, agriculture, and tourism. He cited an active pipeline of Saudi investments, including Wafi’s entry into Pakistan’s downstream oil and gas sector.

“The Kingdom has been very public about their appetite for the country, and the sectors are minerals and mining, IT, agriculture, tourism; and there are already investments which have come in. For example, Wafi came in (in terms of downstream oil and gas stations). There’s a very active pipeline.”

He said private sector activity is driving growth in these areas, while government-to-government cooperation is focused mainly on infrastructure development.

Acknowledging longstanding investor concerns related to bureaucracy and delays, Aurangzeb said Pakistan has made progress over the past two years through structural reforms and fiscal discipline, alongside efforts to improve the business environment.

“The last two years we have worked very hard in terms of structural reforms, in terms of what I call getting the basic hygiene right, in terms of the fiscal situation, the current economic situation (…) in terms of all those areas of getting the basic hygiene in a good place.”

Aurangzeb highlighted mining and refining as key areas of engagement, including discussions around the Reko Diq project, while stressing that talks with Saudi investors extend beyond individual ventures.

“From my perspective, it’s not just about one mine, the discussions will continue with the Saudi investors on a number of these areas.”

He also pointed to growing cooperation in the IT sector, particularly in artificial intelligence, noting that several Pakistani tech firms are already in discussions with Saudi counterparts or have established offices in the Kingdom.

Referring to recent talks with Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, Aurangzeb said Pakistan’s large freelance workforce presents opportunities for deeper collaboration, provided skills development keeps pace with demand.

“I was just with (Saudi) minister of economy and planning, and he was specifically referring to the Pakistani tech talent, and he is absolutely right. We have the third-largest freelancer population in the world, and what we need to do is to ensure that we upscale, rescale, upgrade them.”

Aurangzeb also cited opportunities to benefit from Saudi Arabia’s experience in the energy sector and noted continued cooperation in defense production.

Looking ahead, he said Pakistan aims to recalibrate its relationship with Saudi Arabia toward trade and investment rather than reliance on aid.

“Our prime minister has been very clear that we want to move this entire discussion as we go forward from aid and support to trade and investment.”