Saudi Arabia 2021 budget expansionary; renews focus on healthcare, tourism: analysts

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Updated 20 December 2020
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Saudi Arabia 2021 budget expansionary; renews focus on healthcare, tourism: analysts

  • Preliminary projections for the fiscal year 2021 indicated real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of about 3.2 percent
  • The government is also aiming to reduce the budget deficit to SR141 billion ($37.6 billion)

Saudi Arabia’s 2021 budget is estimated to be expansionary as government-controlled funds are expected to compensate for previous budget cuts that were announced by the Ministry of Finance, analysts told Argaam.

Preliminary projections for the fiscal year 2021 indicated real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of about 3.2 percent, driven by the assumption that economic activity will continue to recover during the year, as stated in the budget statement for FY2021 announced on Tuesday, Dec. 15.

The government is also aiming to reduce the budget deficit to SR141 billion ($37.6 billion), or 4.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), in fiscal year 2021. This is planned through government efforts to enhance spending efficiency and achieve fiscal stability, according to the budget statement.

Meanwhile, experts said that in FY2021, Saudi Arabia will seek to direct spending towards promising sectors like healthcare, which has succeeded in containing the spread of coronavirus with government support. The government allocated SR175 billion for the health and social development sector to continue implementing precautionary measures to protect the health of citizens and residents.

Additionally, FY2021 projections assume a greater role of development funds and megaprojects, and enhanced partnership with the private sector in many tracks.

Argaam discussed the implications of the 2021 budget on the Saudi economy and the impact of COVID-19 with analysts.

Here’s what analysts say about the 2021 budget:

Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, terms the budget as rather expansionary as government-controlled funds are expected to compensate for previous budget cuts that were announced by the Ministry of Finance. “Overall, the Kingdom is likely to stick to its spending plan of 7 percent for most of FY2021.”

The budget also takes into account prospective spending by Public Investment Fund (PIF) on domestic assets in order to fill the gap established due to lack of government finances, he noted.

At macro growth level, economy is expected to rebound to 3.2 percent next year, significantly higher than this year’s projected drop of 3.7 percent. The finance ministry plans to reduce overall spending over each of the next three years.

He highlighted that the overall lowering of deficit is positive for the economy in the long run. “However, some of the key assumptions for fiscal breakeven and further growth, including privatization of state assets and spending by PIF, need to actually bear fruits on the economy,” Valecha noted.

Ahmed Saleem, senior analyst at SHUAA Capital Saudi Arabia, highlighted the budget to be in line with the general expectations and signals a more conservative approach, which is crucial during these unprecedented times of a pandemic.

The focus on healthcare reflected in this budget re-iterates the priorities of the policy makers and was expected considering the extraordinary year the world has just witnessed, he pointed out.

“We can now, with a greater degree of certainty, expect 2021 to be the year of recovery with healthcare and construction anticipated to be among the top picks for market participants,” he added.

Saleem deemed lowering deficit to be a kneejerk reaction in the short-term but is likely to culminate into rising expenditure levels in the years following 2021. “Rising public debt, in addition to a recovering business activity as COVID-19 subsides, might signal a relatively stronger year for the banking sector,” he said.

Sohail Hayyan, a Riyadh-based independent investment consultant, pointed out that the 2021 budget is articulated in a way that assures strong GDP growth of 3.2 percent with conservative oil prices assumptions and a balanced use of debt and access to reserves.

He said that PIF will continue to be the strategic and efficient vehicle to boost the medium- and long-term growth of non-oil GDP while providing short term important economic and financial gains in line with Vision 2030 objectives.

Despite relatively stable expenditures, Saudi Arabia is expected to record a lower deficit and lower use of public debt and reserve amidst reasonable funding, which is an important and welcoming development. “Sustainability is the way forward while keeping enough dynamism and flexibility with positive global and local economic developments,” Hayyan stated.

Sher Mehta, founder and CEO of Virtuoso Economics, believes that amidst subdued oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, Saudi Arabia's economy will probably witness slower growth in 2021 and subsequent years to come.

“Travel and tourism in Saudi Arabia will gain traction in 2021. However, I expect only a gradual economic recovery, rather than a strong rebound in 2021,” he said.

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AI will never replace human creativity, says SRMG CEO 

Updated 30 January 2026
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AI will never replace human creativity, says SRMG CEO 

  • Speaking to Maya Hojeij, senior business anchor at Asharq with Bloomberg, Jomana R. Alrashid expressed pride in SRMG platforms that had absorbed and adopted AI

RIYADH: Jomana R. Alrashid, CEO of Saudi Research and Media Group, highlighted how AI cannot replace human creativity during a session at The Family Office’s “Investing Is a Sea” summit at Shura Island on Friday. 

“You can never replace human creativity. Journalism at the end of the day, and content creation, is all about storytelling, and that’s a creative role that AI does not have the power to do just yet,” Alrashid told the investment summit. 

“We will never eliminate that human role which comes in to actually tell that story, do the actual investigative reporting around it, make sure to be able to also tell you what’s news or what’s factual from what’s wrong ... what’s a misinformation from bias, and that’s the bigger role that the editorial player does in the newsroom.”

Speaking on the topic of AI, moderated by Maya Hojeij, senior business anchor at Asharq with Bloomberg, the CEO expressed her pride in SRMG platforms that had absorbed and adopted AI in a way that was “transformative.”

“We are now translating all of our content leveraging AI. We are also now being able to create documentaries leveraging AI. We now have AI-facilitated fact-checking, AI facilities clipping, transcribing. This is what we believe is the future.”

Alrashid was asked what the journalist of the future would look like. “He’s a journalist and an engineer. He’s someone who needs to understand data. And I think this is another topic that is extremely important, understanding the data that you’re working with,” she said.

“This is something that AI has facilitated as well. I must say that over the past 20 years in the region, especially when it comes to media companies, we did not understand the importance of data.”

 

The CEO highlighted that previously, media would rely on polling, surveys or viewership numbers, but now more detailed information about what viewers wanted was available. 

During the fireside session, Alrashid was asked how the international community viewed the Middle Eastern media. Alrashid said that over the past decades it had played a critical role in informing wider audiences about issues that were extremely complex — politically, culturally and economically — and continued to play that role. 

“Right now it has a bigger role to play, given the role again of social media, citizen journalists, content creators. But I also do believe that it has been facilitated by the power that AI has. Now immediately, you can ensure that that kind of content that is being created by credible, tier-A journalists, world-class journalists, can travel beyond its borders, can travel instantly to target different geographies, different people, different countries, in different languages, in different formats.”

She said that there was a big opportunity for Arab media not to be limited to simply Arab consumption, but to finally transcend borders and be available in different languages and to cater to their audiences. 

 

The CEO expressed optimism about the future, emphasizing the importance of having a clear vision, a strong strategy, and full team alignment. 

Traditional advertising models, once centered on television and print, were rapidly changing, with social media platforms now dominating advertising revenue.

“It’s drastically changing. Ultimately in the past, we used to compete with one another over viewership. But now we’re also competing with the likes of social media platforms; 80 percent of the advertising revenue in the Middle East goes to the social media platforms, but that means that there’s 80 percent interest opportunities.” 

She said that the challenge was to create the right content on these platforms that engaged the target audiences and enabled commercial partnerships. “I don’t think this is a secret, but brands do not like to advertise with news channels. Ultimately, it’s always related with either conflict or war, which is a deterrent to advertisers. 

“And that’s why we’ve entered new verticals such as sports. And that’s why we also double down on our lifestyle vertical. Ultimately, we have the largest market share when it comes to lifestyle ... And we’ve launched new platforms such as Billboard Arabia that gives us an entry into music.” 

Alrashid said this was why the group was in a strong position to counter the decline in advertising revenues across different platforms, and by introducing new products.

“Another very important IP that we’ve created is events attached to the brands that have been operating in the region for 30-plus years. Any IP or any title right now that doesn’t have an event attached to it is missing out on a very big commercial opportunity that allows us to sit in a room, exchange ideas, talk to one another, get to know one another behind the screen.” 

The CEO said that disruption was now constant and often self-driving, adding that the future of the industry was often in storytelling and the ability to innovate by creating persuasive content that connected directly with the audience. 

“But the next disruption is going to continue to come from AI. And how quickly this tool and this very powerful technology evolves. And whether we are in a position to cope with it, adapt to it, and absorb it fully or not.”