Poll: Arabs support Trump on Iran, but not on Jerusalem embassy move

The survey showed opinion in the Arab world overall is divided on the regional impact of the killing of Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani. AFP WASHINGTON, DC - September 29: President Trump, en route to Cleveland for the first televised debate with opponent Joe Biden, gestures to reporters as he departs the White House, in Washington, DC on September 29. (Photo by Bill O’Leary/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
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Updated 30 December 2020
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Poll: Arabs support Trump on Iran, but not on Jerusalem embassy move

  • Arab News/YouGov pan-Arab survey finds Trump much better known in the Arab region than rival Biden
  • Analysts say praises for Trump’s strong Iran stance drowned out by backlash against Jerusalem embassy move

BEIRUT: Regardless of the outcome of the Nov. 3 presidential election, US President Donald Trump does not have to worry about one thing: being accused of leaving the Middle East in a worse condition than he inherited it. Judging by the Arab News/YouGov pan-Arab survey’s findings, that dubious honor goes to his predecessor, Barak Obama, whose vice president Joe Biden is now Trump’s main challenger.
In a nutshell, the study shows that Arabs broadly support Trump’s iron-fist approach towards the Iranian regime, although they oppose his decision in 2018 to transfer the US embassy in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. And even though he is seen as not better for the Arab region than his Democratic opponent, far more respondents were aware of him than Biden. Some of his policies were also viewed favorably in specific parts of the Arab world.


While gone are the days when a White House occupant could run for a second term on their foreign-policy achievements, there is no denying that the US remains a global power whose decisions affect the lives of people from Central America to the Middle East. As such, the importance of understanding what the Arab world is anticipating from a future US administration cannot be overstated.
Covered extensively by the Arab news media, the first big news story of 2020 was the elimination of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) extraterritorial Quds Force. Soleimani was on his way to meet the Iraqi prime minister when he was killed in a US drone strike near Baghdad airport on Jan. 3.
According to the survey, opinion in the Arab world overall is divided on the regional impact of the killing.
Respondents in Yemen were very supportive of the action, with 71 percent approving it as a positive move, as were many residents of Saudi Arabia (68 percent) and Iraqi (57 percent). In contrast, some 59 percent of respondents in Lebanon and 62 percent in Qatar said it was a negative move for the region.

“The poll accurately assesses the interests of Arab states,” said Dr. John Hulsman, president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consultancy.
“For people who knew Soleimani in Iraq, he was part of the problem … as a satrap (viceroy) of Iran. They are delighted in Iraq now they have a vaguely reformist prime minister who is vaguely tolerated by Iran and the US. And that couldn’t have happened with Soleimani there.”

On the other hand, Hulsman said, “If you live somewhere where there is an American base in the region (such as Qatar), then Soleimani’s killing might mean that you are next, because no one thinks the Iranians are going to forget that Soleimani died.”

Under the circumstances, why did 40 percent of the Arab News/YouGov survey’s respondents say Biden would be better for the Middle East, as opposed to the 12 percent who said the same thing about Trump?
For one thing, analysts point out, an even larger number, 49 percent, felt neither candidate would be better for the region.
For another thing, they note that just a little more than half of the respondents (53 percent) said they were aware of Biden compared to a massive 90 percent who were aware of Trump. Besides, they say, the points scored by Trump by taking a hard line on the Iranian problem are outweighed by the consequences of the Jerusalem embassy transfer decision, which was opposed by 89 percent of the respondents.


READ: The methodology behind the Arab News/YouGov Pan-Arab Survey


According to David Romano, Thomas G. Strong professor of Middle East Politics at Missouri State University, Iran remains the key issue in understanding the Arab world’s bad aftertaste from the Obama administration. “When it comes to the Arab states, Biden is a lot like Obama,” he told Arab News. “They are not sure if he’s the kind of president who will throw them under the bus like many feel Obama did to (former Egyptian President) Hosni Mubarak.”
Trump, by comparison, might represent stability for the Middle East. “Trump has come through on his word. He sent more troops to Saudi Arabia and he’s been harder on Iran,” Romano said.

Presumably, by the same token, about one fifth of GCC residents believe Trump’s withdrawal from the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal, has boosted safety in the region (led particularly by 49 percent of Saudi nationals).

Furthermore, residents of countries intimately tied without a choice to Iran said they want a combative stance from the next US president, including toughened sanctions and a war posture. These included: Iraq (53 percent), Yemen (54 percent) and Saudi Arabia (49 percent).
“The Trump team came in and decided that Obama’s efforts, particularly with the JCPOA, were a disaster because it bankrolled a whole list of people who want America out of the region and who don’t want stability in the region. They want to dominate the region,” Hulsman said.

The fear among many is that Biden may abandon Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran. “From the point of view of the Middle East, this is one of those moments that looks like whiplash. If you are living in the region, this is zig-zag diplomacy,” Hulsman said.
It is not just analysts who are deeply skeptical about Biden’s stance on Iran, fearing a return to the perceived weak-kneed and irresolute approach of Obama.
Agop K, a Lebanese-Armenian-American attorney who lives in Beirut but practices law in the US, said “we need an iron fist here in the Middle East, unfortunately. And Trump represents that.”
Speaking to Arab News, he said: “As long as the pressure is on Iran and Iran is being sanctioned and cut off from financing, this is what might help us down the line in Lebanon. If I wanted to vote for Trump, this is one of the biggest reasons I would do so.”

Twitter: @rebeccaaproctor


Hezbollah steps up rocket fire as Israel sends more troops into Lebanon

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Hezbollah steps up rocket fire as Israel sends more troops into Lebanon

  • In a follow-up to Kassem’s speech, the group issued a statement saying it will “not abandon our support and backing for our steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip”

BEIRUT: Hezbollah fired another barrage of rockets into Israel on Tuesday, and the militant group’s acting leader vowed to keep up pressure that has forced tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes near the Lebanese border. The Israeli military said it sent more ground troops into southern Lebanon and that a senior Hezbollah commander was killed in an airstrike.
Dozens of rockets fired by Hezbollah were aimed as far south as Haifa, and the Israeli government warned residents north of the coastal city to limit activities, prompting the closure of more schools. The Israeli military said Hezbollah launched about 180 rockets across the border.
Sheikh Naim Kassem, Hezbollah’s acting leader, said its military capabilities remain intact after weeks of heavy Israeli airstrikes across large parts of Lebanon, and attacks that killed its top commanders in a matter of days. He said Israeli forces have not been able to advance since launching a ground incursion into Lebanon last week.
Kassem, speaking by video from an undisclosed location, said Hezbollah will name a new leader to succeed longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, “but the circumstances are difficult because of the war.”
In a statement addressed to the people of Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Hezbollah “weaker than it has been for many, many years.” He added: “We took out thousands of terrorists, including Nasrallah himself, and Nasrallah’s replacement, and the replacement of his replacement,” but without naming them.
Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut last month. Hashem Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah who oversees the group’s political affairs, was generally regarded as the heir apparent. But no announcement has been made on a successor, and Safieddine has not appeared in public or made any public statements since Nasrallah’s death.
Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, an Israeli military spokesman, said Tuesday night that Israel was still checking the status of Safieddine, and accused Hezbollah of trying to hide details of a recent strike in Beirut on a location where he was believed to have been.
The Israeli military said it has dismantled militant infrastructure along the border and killed hundreds of Hezbollah fighters.
There was no way to confirm battlefield claims made by either side.
The Israeli military said it deployed a fourth division in southern Lebanon and that operations have expanded to the west, but its focus still appears to be a narrow strip along the border.
A day after marking a year of war in Gaza, Israeli forces fought heavy battles Tuesday with Palestinian militants in the north, where residents have been ordered to evacuate.
Hezbollah says naming a new leader ‘difficult’
Hezbollah’s acting leader said Hezbollah backs efforts by Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to reach a ceasefire. Berri, a close ally of Hezbollah, has been seen as the main interlocutor between the militant group and the United States, and has been trying to broker a ceasefire.
In a follow-up to Kassem’s speech, the group issued a statement saying it will “not abandon our support and backing for our steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.”
The statement came in apparent response to reports that interpreted Kassem’s speech as suggesting the group would agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon without a ceasefire in Gaza, contrary to Hezbollah’s public stance that the two fronts are linked.
Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel the day after Hamas’ surprise attack into Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 ignited the war in Gaza. Hezbollah and Hamas are both allied with Iran. Most rockets have been intercepted or fallen in open areas.
The Israeli army on Tuesday said about 180 rockets were launched from Lebanon toward northern Israel, with most intercepted. A 70-year-old woman was wounded by shrapnel, and Israeli media aired footage of what appeared to be minor damage to buildings near Haifa.
The military said late Tuesday that Israeli strikes over the past 24 hours had killed 50 Hezbollah fighters, including six whom it described as senior commanders. Israel says it will keep fighting until tens of thousands of displaced Israeli citizens can return to their homes in the north.
More than 1,300 people have been killed in Lebanon and over a million displaced since the fighting escalated in mid-September.
Israel’s response to Iran’s missile barrage
Last week, Iran launched its own barrage of some 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, in what it said was a response to the killing of Nasrallah, along with an Iranian general who was with him at the time, and Ismail Haniyeh, the top leader of Hamas killed in an explosion in Tehran in July.
Israel has vowed to respond to the missile attack, without saying when or how.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was to meet in Washington with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, but Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said Tuesday the meeting, expected for the following day, had been postponed. Asked for the reason, she referred reporters to Israeli officials. Netanyahu’s office had no immediate comment.
The Biden administration says it is opposed to an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which could further escalate regional tensions.
Heavy fighting and evacuation orders in Gaza
Heavy fighting raged in northern Gaza, the first target of Israel’s ground offensive in the war. Entire neighborhoods have been reduced to rubble, and Israeli troops have largely isolated the region — which includes Gaza City — since last October, when up to a million people fled south following Israeli evacuation orders.
Gaza’s Health Ministry said the Israeli military called for three hospitals in northern Gaza — Kamal Adwan, Awda and the Indonesian Hospital — to evacuate patients and medical staff.
“The military contacted me directly and said in a threatening way, ‘tomorrow all the patients and staff in Kamal Adwan must be removed or they will be exposed to danger.’ Clearly, it’s a clear threat,” said the hospital’s director, Hossam Abu Safiya.
“We have told all sides that the north is still crowded with people ... and we have the right to provide them services,” Abu Safiya said. “We are staying firm and will continue to provide services no matter what the cost.”
Israeli forces are also battling Hamas militants in Jabaliya, a densely populated urban refugee camp dating back to the 1948 war surrounding Israel’s creation. Palestinian residents said Israeli warplanes and artillery were pounding Jabaliya as well as Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya.
Earlier, Kamal Adwan Hospital said at least 15 people, including two women, four children and four people trying to retrieve bodies, were killed Tuesday in the fighting in Jabaliya.
“The situation is extremely difficult. The bombing and explosions haven’t stopped,” said Jabaliya resident Mahmoud Abu Shehatah. “It’s like the first days of the war.”
The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting around 250.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed around 42,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities. They do not say how many were fighters, but say women and children make up more than half of all fatalities.
 

 


With hospitals full in Lebanon, family flees to give birth in Iraq

Updated 09 October 2024
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With hospitals full in Lebanon, family flees to give birth in Iraq

NAJAF: Lubana Ismail had just fled her village in southern Lebanon with her husband and two children when she went into labor. She had swollen veins in her uterus and needed immediate medical supervision to give birth safely.
They searched for a hospital in Beirut or Sidon that would admit her, but all were full of the dead and wounded.
“No hospital accepted me. We were turned away everywhere until my father suggested we go to Iraq,” she recounted.
So they boarded a flight and flew to Najaf. It was there, in a Shiite pilgrimage city in a former war zone 1,000 km (600 miles) from home, that Lubana finally gave birth to baby Zahraa, healthy and safe.
The proud father, Fouad Youssef, recounted the perils of their evacuation.
“At first, we went to Tyre, but a strike hit directly next to us. We decided to go to Beirut, thinking it would be safer, but even on the way, a strike hit near us,” he said.
“During our two days of displacement, I tried to get my wife into a hospital because her labor was difficult. But due to the high number of injuries and martyrs, there were no vacancies.”
More than a million Lebanese have fled their homes since Israel intensified its airstrikes and launched a ground campaign in southern Lebanon against the Hezbollah movement which has been striking Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians.
Imran Riza, UN humanitarian coordinator, said the pace of displacement since Sept. 23 had exceeded worst case scenarios, and too much damage was being done to civilian infrastructure.
Najaf, which accepts millions of Shiite pilgrims a year, is accustomed to handling the emergency medical needs of foreigners, and Iraqis have endured almost two decades of war at home. But receiving refugees from Lebanon is unexpected. Iraq’s interior ministry says around 5,700 Lebanese have arrived so far.
Lubana and Fouad are grateful to have found a safe place to bring their family and give birth to their daughter. But they have no idea what will come next.
“We are afraid the war will go on for a long time. What will happen to our children? We were preparing them for school, but now there is no education. Are we going to stay here? Are we leaving? Are we going back to our country?” pondered Youssef, watching news of the destruction in Lebanon on his mobile screen.


As Israel plots to strike Iran, its choices range from symbolic to severe

Updated 09 October 2024
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As Israel plots to strike Iran, its choices range from symbolic to severe

  • Israel has a broad range of choices of targets – from Iranian government buildings and military bases to sensitive oil installations to heavily fortified nuclear facilities hidden deep below ground
  • “Unlike Lebanon and Gaza, every Israeli attack on Iran has international and global repercussions,” said Menahem Merhavy, an Iran expert at Hebrew University in Jerusalem

JERUSALEM: Israel has promised to retaliate for Iran’s massive missile attack last week. How it does so involves great risk, and could have major repercussions for the archenemies, the Middle East and the world.
Israel’s options range from symbolic strikes on military targets to crippling attacks on Iran’s vital oil industry or its secretive and heavily fortified nuclear program.
The intensity and timing of any retaliatory strike was expected to top the agenda of a planned meeting this week at the Pentagon between Israel’s defense minister and his US counterpart. But late Tuesday, the Pentagon said the meeting was abruptly postponed.
In a sign of possible disagreement over the right approach, President Joe Biden has already urged Israel not to hit Iran’s nuclear program and discouraged it from hitting the oil industry.

A view of a road sign directing towards the city of Dimona, close to the nuclear power plant in the southern Israeli Negev desert. (AFP file photo)

The Associated Press spoke to two former Israeli prime ministers and other experts to explore Israel’s options. There is broad consensus that Israel must strike back, but deep disagreement over the best way to do so.
“The question is not whether Israel will retaliate or respond,” former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told AP. “The question is which way.”
Why is Israel threatening Iran?
Israel and Iran have been involved in a bitter shadow war for years — primarily through Israel’s battles against Iranian-backed militant groups across the region. Israel also has been suspected of killing Iranian nuclear scientists and carrying out attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, but it rarely acknowledges involvement.
Direct clashes have been rare. But things changed after Hamas attacked Israel from the Gaza Strip on Oct. 7, 2023, and Hezbollah began firing rockets at Israel the following day. Both groups receive support from Iran.
In April, Iran fired over 300 drones and missiles toward Israel after accusing it of killing two Iranian generals in a diplomatic compound in Syria. Nearly all of the missiles malfunctioned or were intercepted, and Israel responded with a limited strike that signaled it did not want any further escalation.
After last week’s Iranian attack, Israel signaled its next response would be different.
Iran said the barrage of at least 180 ballistic missiles was to avenge a series of Israeli strikes against its close allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, including the assassination of the group’s longtime leader. Although the missiles caused little damage or casualties, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran had made a “big mistake and it will pay for it.” Members of his hard-line coalition have called for a harsh response.
What options does Israel have?
Israel has a broad range of choices of targets – from Iranian government buildings and military bases to sensitive oil installations to heavily fortified nuclear facilities hidden deep below ground. Israel accuses Iran of developing nuclear weapons — a charge Iran denies.
Striking anywhere in Iran is a logistical challenge for Israel. Warplanes would need to fly over 1,500 kilometers (about 1,000 miles) to their target, requiring a complicated midair refueling operation, potentially over hostile skies. Any strike would also mean confronting Iran’s Russian-made air-defense systems.
“Remember that Iran is 1,500, 1,600 kilometers (about 1,000 miles) away from Israel, and you have countries in between — Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia. Some are friends. Some are foes,” said Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and a former adviser on Iranian affairs on Israel’s National Security Council.
“You don’t want to embarrass your friends. You don’t want to get hostile fire from other countries,” he said.
Olmert, who served as prime minister from 2006 to 2009, said Israel is more than capable of coping with these challenges.
“We have the capabilities,” he said. “I’m not certain it would be wise and responsible to expose them.”
Even if Israel has the means, there are diplomatic considerations. A strike on the oil sector, Iran’s economic backbone, or on the nuclear program would almost certainly guarantee an Iranian response and raise the risk of further escalation.
Such strikes could rattle global oil markets and shake the US economy on the eve of a presidential election. They also could risk Iranian retaliation not only against Israel, but against American troops stationed in the region or Gulf Arab countries aligned with the West.
“Unlike Lebanon and Gaza, every Israeli attack on Iran has international and global repercussions,” said Menahem Merhavy, an Iran expert at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.
So how will Israel respond?
Former leaders are divided on what path Israel should choose.
Olmert said a strike on multiple military targets, spread across Iran’s vast territory, would be more than enough to send a message. The goal, he said, is to show that Israel can strike anywhere and anytime.
“That’s precisely what deterrence is all about,” he said.
Olmert said hitting Iran’s oil sector would be an unnecessary escalation that invites a response, and that striking the nuclear program is not worth the risk. Not only would it trigger Iranian retaliation, but the odds of success are uncertain, he said.
“Trying to attack the nuclear program will be a mistake,” he said.
Another former prime minister, Yair Lapid, believes Israel should strike Iran’s oil industry infrastructure.
“That is the most painful target for the Iranian regime,” Lapid, who served as premier in 2022, said in a written response to a question from The Associated Press.
“Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel must be met with a forceful response,” he said, adding that Iran must understand “there is a high cost to its regional aggression.”
In an interview with the Israeli news site Ynet, Lapid said a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities should only be done as part of an international coalition in coordination with the United States.
Lapid’s predecessor as prime minister and former governing partner, Naftali Bennett, takes an even tougher line, saying now is the time for Israel to bomb the Iranian nuclear project.
Bennett said in a video posted on social media Tuesday that Iran and its allies have been weakened, and that Israel has a rare chance to deliver a decisive blow to Iran’s leadership, economy and nuclear program.
“We must not settle for Iranian military bases or noisy-yet-meaningless actions that are meant only to deliver a message,” Bennett said. “The time for messages is over.”
Olmert, however, said he hopes cooler heads will prevail.
“What do we want to achieve and how far do we want to go and how arrogant do we want to be?” he said. His advice: “Try to be smart.”

 


Qatar launches ‘air bridge’ for aid to war-struck Lebanon

Updated 08 October 2024
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Qatar launches ‘air bridge’ for aid to war-struck Lebanon

  • Lebanese Health Minister Firass Abiad said the Qatari aid “will help cover shortages of medical, relief and support supplies” and will be “a vital push” for the hundreds of thousands of displaced and injured people

BEIRUT, Lebanon: Doha launched an “air bridge” to transport medical supplies and food aid to Lebanon, a Qatari minister said in Beirut on Tuesday, more than two weeks into intense Israeli strikes on the country.
“Today we launched the air bridge with consecutive planes carrying food, shelter materials and medical supplies,” said Qatar’s Minister of State for International Cooperation Lolwah Al-Khater from a public hospital in Beirut.
She said Doha was working “on medium and long-term plans to contain this humanitarian crisis.”
Since September 23, Israel has launched an intense air campaign mainly targeting Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon, killing more than 1,150 people and displacing upwards of a million people.
Lebanese Health Minister Firass Abiad said the Qatari aid “will help cover shortages of medical, relief and support supplies” and will be “a vital push” for the hundreds of thousands of displaced and injured people.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati also met the Qatari minister.
A French plane carrying medical aid also landed in Beirut Tuesday, one of several planeloads of aid that arrived at Lebanon’s only international airport since the escalation began.
The United Arab Emirates, Turkiye, Iraq, Egypt, Jordan and Romania are also among the countries that have sent aid to Lebanon.

 


Egypt, Jordan voice support for Lebanon in face of Israeli ‘aggression’

Updated 08 October 2024
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Egypt, Jordan voice support for Lebanon in face of Israeli ‘aggression’

  • Both Amman and Cairo have repeatedly warned that the region is on the brink of all-out war and have accused Israel of being given impunity by its Western allies to systematically violate international law

CAIRO: The foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan, the only two Arab countries to have made peace with Israel, expressed solidarity with Lebanon Tuesday in the face of Israel’s widening offensive.
Addressing a joint news conference in Cairo with his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdelatty, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi called for an end to “Israeli aggression on three fronts” — in Gaza, in the occupied West Bank and now in Lebanon.
“We condemn the Israeli aggression on Lebanon, we condemn Israel’s shelling of the Lebanese capital, we condemn Israel’s killing of Lebanese citizens,” Safadi said.
Both Amman and Cairo have repeatedly warned that the region is on the brink of all-out war and have accused Israel of being given impunity by its Western allies to systematically violate international law.
“You have a country that finds itself above the law and unaccountable,” Abdelatty said.
Israel launched a wave of strikes against Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon on September 23, leaving at least 1,150 people dead since then and forcing more than a million people to flee.
While battling Hamas in Gaza, Israel has vowed to secure its northern border with Lebanon to allow the return home of tens of thousands of Israelis displaced by Hezbollah’s cross-border fire in support of its Palestinian ally.