Poll: Arabs support Trump on Iran, but not on Jerusalem embassy move

The survey showed opinion in the Arab world overall is divided on the regional impact of the killing of Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani. AFP WASHINGTON, DC - September 29: President Trump, en route to Cleveland for the first televised debate with opponent Joe Biden, gestures to reporters as he departs the White House, in Washington, DC on September 29. (Photo by Bill O’Leary/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Short Url
Updated 30 December 2020
Follow

Poll: Arabs support Trump on Iran, but not on Jerusalem embassy move

  • Arab News/YouGov pan-Arab survey finds Trump much better known in the Arab region than rival Biden
  • Analysts say praises for Trump’s strong Iran stance drowned out by backlash against Jerusalem embassy move

BEIRUT: Regardless of the outcome of the Nov. 3 presidential election, US President Donald Trump does not have to worry about one thing: being accused of leaving the Middle East in a worse condition than he inherited it. Judging by the Arab News/YouGov pan-Arab survey’s findings, that dubious honor goes to his predecessor, Barak Obama, whose vice president Joe Biden is now Trump’s main challenger.
In a nutshell, the study shows that Arabs broadly support Trump’s iron-fist approach towards the Iranian regime, although they oppose his decision in 2018 to transfer the US embassy in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. And even though he is seen as not better for the Arab region than his Democratic opponent, far more respondents were aware of him than Biden. Some of his policies were also viewed favorably in specific parts of the Arab world.


While gone are the days when a White House occupant could run for a second term on their foreign-policy achievements, there is no denying that the US remains a global power whose decisions affect the lives of people from Central America to the Middle East. As such, the importance of understanding what the Arab world is anticipating from a future US administration cannot be overstated.
Covered extensively by the Arab news media, the first big news story of 2020 was the elimination of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) extraterritorial Quds Force. Soleimani was on his way to meet the Iraqi prime minister when he was killed in a US drone strike near Baghdad airport on Jan. 3.
According to the survey, opinion in the Arab world overall is divided on the regional impact of the killing.
Respondents in Yemen were very supportive of the action, with 71 percent approving it as a positive move, as were many residents of Saudi Arabia (68 percent) and Iraqi (57 percent). In contrast, some 59 percent of respondents in Lebanon and 62 percent in Qatar said it was a negative move for the region.

“The poll accurately assesses the interests of Arab states,” said Dr. John Hulsman, president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consultancy.
“For people who knew Soleimani in Iraq, he was part of the problem … as a satrap (viceroy) of Iran. They are delighted in Iraq now they have a vaguely reformist prime minister who is vaguely tolerated by Iran and the US. And that couldn’t have happened with Soleimani there.”

On the other hand, Hulsman said, “If you live somewhere where there is an American base in the region (such as Qatar), then Soleimani’s killing might mean that you are next, because no one thinks the Iranians are going to forget that Soleimani died.”

Under the circumstances, why did 40 percent of the Arab News/YouGov survey’s respondents say Biden would be better for the Middle East, as opposed to the 12 percent who said the same thing about Trump?
For one thing, analysts point out, an even larger number, 49 percent, felt neither candidate would be better for the region.
For another thing, they note that just a little more than half of the respondents (53 percent) said they were aware of Biden compared to a massive 90 percent who were aware of Trump. Besides, they say, the points scored by Trump by taking a hard line on the Iranian problem are outweighed by the consequences of the Jerusalem embassy transfer decision, which was opposed by 89 percent of the respondents.


READ: The methodology behind the Arab News/YouGov Pan-Arab Survey


According to David Romano, Thomas G. Strong professor of Middle East Politics at Missouri State University, Iran remains the key issue in understanding the Arab world’s bad aftertaste from the Obama administration. “When it comes to the Arab states, Biden is a lot like Obama,” he told Arab News. “They are not sure if he’s the kind of president who will throw them under the bus like many feel Obama did to (former Egyptian President) Hosni Mubarak.”
Trump, by comparison, might represent stability for the Middle East. “Trump has come through on his word. He sent more troops to Saudi Arabia and he’s been harder on Iran,” Romano said.

Presumably, by the same token, about one fifth of GCC residents believe Trump’s withdrawal from the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal, has boosted safety in the region (led particularly by 49 percent of Saudi nationals).

Furthermore, residents of countries intimately tied without a choice to Iran said they want a combative stance from the next US president, including toughened sanctions and a war posture. These included: Iraq (53 percent), Yemen (54 percent) and Saudi Arabia (49 percent).
“The Trump team came in and decided that Obama’s efforts, particularly with the JCPOA, were a disaster because it bankrolled a whole list of people who want America out of the region and who don’t want stability in the region. They want to dominate the region,” Hulsman said.

The fear among many is that Biden may abandon Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran. “From the point of view of the Middle East, this is one of those moments that looks like whiplash. If you are living in the region, this is zig-zag diplomacy,” Hulsman said.
It is not just analysts who are deeply skeptical about Biden’s stance on Iran, fearing a return to the perceived weak-kneed and irresolute approach of Obama.
Agop K, a Lebanese-Armenian-American attorney who lives in Beirut but practices law in the US, said “we need an iron fist here in the Middle East, unfortunately. And Trump represents that.”
Speaking to Arab News, he said: “As long as the pressure is on Iran and Iran is being sanctioned and cut off from financing, this is what might help us down the line in Lebanon. If I wanted to vote for Trump, this is one of the biggest reasons I would do so.”

Twitter: @rebeccaaproctor


Mass displacement in Lebanon war revives spectre of sectarian strife

Updated 8 sec ago
Follow

Mass displacement in Lebanon war revives spectre of sectarian strife

Some residents were uneasy, worried that those seeking refuge could include people linked to Hezbollah, the Shiite Muslim militia and political party at war with Israel
Marjayoun had been spared the brunt of Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah during the past year. But residents soon felt that war had arrived

BEIRUT: Marjayoun, a majority Christian town in southern Lebanon, opened its schools and a church last month to house scores of people fleeing Israel’s bombardment of Muslim villages, extending a hand across the country’s sectarian divide.
Some residents were uneasy, worried that those seeking refuge could include people linked to Hezbollah, the Shiite Muslim militia and political party at war with Israel, seven of them told Reuters. But they wanted to uphold local customs of good neighborliness and they knew that those fleeing the widening Israeli offensive had nowhere to go.
Marjayoun had been spared the brunt of Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah during the past year. But residents soon felt that war had arrived.
On Oct. 6, two locals — a teacher and a police officer — were killed on Marjayoun’s outskirts by Israeli drone strikes targeting a Shiite man on a motorbike, according to two security sources and local residents. The Israeli military did not respond to a request for comment. Later that day, a displaced man who sought to shelter in Marjayoun’s bishopric fired a gun in the air and threatened staff after he was asked to move to a different location, according to three residents and Philip Okla, the priest of Marjayoun’s Orthodox Church.
Marjayoun’s welcoming spirit swiftly evaporated.
“You can’t invite fire to your home,” Okla told Reuters, speaking via phone from the town, expressing the fears of some residents that the displaced people would attract violence.
Following calls from locals for them to leave, dozens of displaced people departed the village, along with many of the town’s terrified inhabitants, according to Okla and six residents, who asked not to be identified.
Lebanon’s population is a mosaic of more than a dozen religious sects, with political representation divided along sectarian lines. Religious divisions fueled the ferocity of a brutal 1975-1990 civil war, which left some 150,000 people dead and drew in neighboring states.
Reuters spoke to more than a dozen lawmakers, politicians, residents and analysts who said that Israel’s military offensive across Shiite-majority areas of Lebanon, which has displaced more than a million people into Sunni and Christian areas, has brought sectarian tensions to the fore, posing a threat to Lebanon’s stability. The antipathy is being fueled by repeated Israeli attacks on buildings housing displaced families, giving rise to concerns that hosting them can make you a target, the sources said.
“Now, barriers are going up and fears are rising because no-one knows where we are going,” said Okla, who expressed regret for the increasing hostility.

A FRAGILE FABRIC
Lebanese militias linked to religious groups fought a 15-year civil war. The conflict ended with the disarmament of all save Hezbollah, which kept its weapons to resist Israel’s ongoing occupation of the south.
Israel withdrew in 2000 but Hezbollah retained its arms. It fought a border war against Israel in 2006 and turned its weapons on political opponents inside Lebanon in 2008 in street battles that cemented its ascendency.
A UN-backed court convicted Hezbollah members for the 2005 assassination of Sunni Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and opponents blame it for a string of other assassinations of mostly Christian and Sunni politicians. It has always denied responsibility for any of them.
With support from Iran, Hezbollah grew into a regional force, fighting in Syria to help quash an uprising against President Bashar Assad, while maintaining effective veto power over decision-making inside Lebanon, including over the presidency, which is reserved for a Maronite Christian by convention.
The position has been vacant since 2022.
With Hezbollah’s Shiite support base reeling from Israel’s blows, Lebanon’s leaders — including caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, a Sunni Muslim businessman — have stressed the importance of maintaining “civil peace.”
Even Hezbollah’s rivals, including the Christian Lebanese Forces party, have largely complied by moderating their political rhetoric and urging supporters not to stoke tensions.
But on the ground, those tensions are real, including around schools that have welcomed displaced people in Beirut. Members of Hezbollah-allied parties have seized control of who comes and goes and what enters some of those institutions, according to several residents.
Main thoroughfares clogged only during rush hour are now lined day and night with cars belonging to people who fled Israeli bombing, straining the city’s already-crumbling infrastructure.
In the Christian Beirut suburb of Boutchay, aggravated residents on Friday stopped a truck from unloading a container into a depot rented to someone from outside the area, suspecting it might contain Hezbollah weapons, mayor Michel Khoury said.
“There is tension. Everyone is scared today,” Khoury said, adding that the vehicle was turned away without being searched
Druze lawmaker Wael Abu Faour said politicians from all sides needed to work to preserve national unity.
“Beirut could explode because of the displaced, because of the friction, because of the disputes over properties — because the South, the Bekaa and the suburbs are all in Beirut,” he said.
Lebanon was already reeling from the August 2020 Beirut port blast and a half-decade economic crisis — which has impoverished hundreds of thousands — when Hezbollah opened a second front against Israel the day after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack.
Asked about the risks of sectarian tensions, United Nations refugee chief Filippo Grandi told Reuters that Lebanon is a “fragile country.”
“Any shock, and this is a major shock, can really make the country backtrack... and can cause big problems,” Grandi said

RISKS FOR HEZBOLLAH
The displacement crisis also presents a challenge for Hezbollah, which has long prided itself on providing for its community but now faces escalating needs and a lacklustre response from a near-bankrupt state.
A Lebanese official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter, told Reuters Hezbollah’s softening stance on a Lebanon ceasefire was in part driven by the pressure created by the mass displacement.
Hezbollah did not respond to a request for comment.
During a visit to a school hosting displaced people last week, Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Moqdad insisted the group’s supporters “are ready for the harshest conditions and most difficult circumstances.”
“This calamity brought us closer together,” he said, adding Lebanon had withstood a “test.”
But Neamat Harb, a Shiite woman who fled the southern town of Harouf with her extended family, said living in a school was tiring and people there required more support from Hezbollah and the government.
“They should be very mindful of their support base,” she said. “They should negotiate as much as possible (for a ceasefire) so people can go home sooner,” she said.
Most displaced people who can afford rent have found apartments to stay in, though landlords are often demanding a minimum three-month payment on the spot, according to landlords and prospective tenants.
But some residences refuse to house displaced, according to four landlords or prospective tenants.
Others sent their tenants notices urging them to “KNOW YOUR NEIGHBOURS” and limit visits “to preserve everyone’s safety,” according to a notice seen by Reuters.

MEMORIES OF CIVIL WAR
For some, the mass displacement and demographic tensions have brought back unwelcome memories of state breakdown and mass squatting that took place during Lebanon’s civil war.
At least half a dozen apartment blocks and hotels in Beirut’s Hamra district were broken into and turned into shelters by the Hezbollah-allied Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party, members of the group and local residents said. The SSNP mobilized dozens of its members in the effort, according to the party officials.
A Reuters reporter saw members of the SSNP, identified by party armbands, standing guard at two buildings.
One of them, a 14-story hotel put out of commission by Lebanon’s half-decade economic crisis, now hosts 800 people, according to the SSNP member in charge there, Wassim Chantaf.
“There is no state. Zero. We are taking the place of the state,” he said, as party members directed traffic and unloaded a truck of donated bottled water.
Another Saudi-owned building nearby had only a few years ago managed to relocate squatters dating back to Lebanon’s civil war.
Then last month, more than 200 people fleeing Israel’s escalating strikes broke in, said Rebecca Habib, a lawyer who filed a suit to get them out. She succeeded after authorities secured a different place for them to stay.
“We’re scared history is repeating itself,” she said.

Hezbollah's Naim Qassem: We are facing a new Middle East threat in the manner of Israel

Updated 36 sec ago
Follow

Hezbollah's Naim Qassem: We are facing a new Middle East threat in the manner of Israel


Second phase of Gaza polio campaign starts well despite Israeli strikes: WHO

Updated 15 October 2024
Follow

Second phase of Gaza polio campaign starts well despite Israeli strikes: WHO

  • Aid groups carried out a first round of vaccinations last month

GENEVA: The World Health Organization said on Tuesday it had been able to start its polio campaign in central Gaza and vaccinate tens of thousands of children despite Israeli strikes in the designated protected zone hours before.
As part of an agreement between the Israeli military and Palestinian militant group Hamas, humanitarian pauses in the year-long Gaza war had been due to begin early on Monday to reach hundreds of thousands of children.
However, hours before then, the UN humanitarian office said Israeli forces struck tents near al Aqsa hospital, inside in the zone, where it said four people were burned to death.
The UN Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA said one of its schools in the central Gazan city of Nuseirat, intended as a vaccination site, was hit overnight between Sunday and Monday, killing up to 22 people.
WHO spokesperson Tarik Jašarević told a Geneva press briefing that over 92,000 children, or around half of the children targeted for polio vaccines in the central area, had been inoculated on Monday.
“What we have received from colleagues is that the vaccination went without a major issue yesterday, and we hope It will continue the same way,” he said.
Other humanitarian agencies have previously voiced concerns about the viability of the polio campaign in northern Gaza, where an Israeli offensive is under way.
Aid groups carried out an initial round of vaccinations last month, after a baby was partially paralyzed by the type 2 polio virus in August, in the first such case in the territory in 25 years.


Lebanon PM: Beirut airport security tightened to deter Israeli attack

Updated 31 min 17 sec ago
Follow

Lebanon PM: Beirut airport security tightened to deter Israeli attack

  • Minister Najib: ‘The government is doing everything in its power to remove any pretexts from the Israelis’ hands’

BEIRUT: Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said in an interview Tuesday that security had been tightened in the country’s only airport in Beirut, to remove any pretexts for an Israeli attack.
“The government is doing everything in its power to remove any pretexts from the Israelis’ hands,” he said, adding that “tightened security has been in place for a week at the airport,” located near Hezbollah’s south Beirut stronghold that has seen intense Israeli bombardment.


UN agencies urge more funds for ‘increasing’ Lebanon needs

Updated 15 October 2024
Follow

UN agencies urge more funds for ‘increasing’ Lebanon needs

BEIRUT: Two United Nations agencies on Tuesday called for more funding to address "increasing" needs in Lebanon, where the war between Israel and Hezbollah has displaced hundreds of thousands of people.
"We are preparing for the reality that the needs are increasing," said UNICEF deputy executive director Ted Chaiban and World Food Programme deputy executive director Carl Skau in a joint statement, adding: "We need additional funding, without conditionalities".