Iraq: OPEC and allies may deepen oil cut deal to reach 1.6m bpd

OPEC will consider deepening the cuts at meetings due this week in Vienna. (AFP)
Updated 01 December 2019

Iraq: OPEC and allies may deepen oil cut deal to reach 1.6m bpd

  • OPEC to consider deepening the cuts at meetings due this week in Vienna

BAGHDAD: OPEC and allied oil producers will consider deepening their existing oil supply reduction deal by about 400,000 barrels per day to 1.6 million bpd, Iraq’s oil minister said on Sunday.

The minister, Thamer Ghadhban, told reporters in Baghdad that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, will consider deepening the cuts at meetings due this week in Vienna.

OPEC+ oil exporters have coordinated their output for three years to balance the market and support prices. Their current deal, which agreed to cut supply by 1.2 million bpd from January this year, is due to expire at the end of March.

Iraq will exceed 100 percent commitment with the supply deal as of Sunday, Ghadhban also said, adding that an agreement capping production from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region will also help the country’s compliance.

The agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) caps production from the northern Iraqi region at 450,000 bpd, he said. About 250,000 bpd of the KRG’s output will be handed over to the central Iraqi government and 200,000 bpd will be used by the region to pay back debt owed to foreign firms, he added.

The minister also said that Iraq’s crude output has not been affected by anti-graft protests that broke out in early October across Baghdad and the oil-rich regions of the south.


$8bn blow to Erdogan as investors flee Turkey

Updated 09 July 2020

$8bn blow to Erdogan as investors flee Turkey

  • Overseas holdings in Istanbul stock exchange are at lowest in 16 years

ANKARA: Foreign capital is flooding out of Turkey in a massive vote of no confidence in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s economic competence.
Overseas investors have withdrawn nearly $8 billion from Turkish stocks since January, according to Central Bank statistics, reducing foreign investment in the Istanbul stock exchange from $32.3 billion to $24.4 billion.
As recently as 2013, the figure was $82 billion, and foreign investors now own less than 50 percent of stocks for the first time in 16 years.
“Foreign investment has left Turkey for several reasons, both internal and external,” Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, told Arab News.
“Externally, investors fled riskier assets like emerging markets during the height of the coronavirus pandemic. Some of those flows are returning, but investors are being much more discerning and Turkey does not seem so attractive.”
In terms of internal factors, Thin said that Turkish policymakers had made it hard for foreign investors to transact in Turkey. “This includes real money clients, not just speculative.
“By implementing ad hoc measures to try and limit speculative activity, Turkey has made it hard for real money as well. Besides these problems, Turkey’s fundamentals remain poor compared to much of the emerging markets.”
Erdogan allies claim international players are manipulating the Istanbul stock exchange through automated trading, and have demanded action to make it difficult for them to trade in Turkish assets.
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Merrill Lynch, Barclays and Credit Suisse were banned this month from short-selling stocks for up to three months, and this year local lenders were briefly banned by the banking regulator from trading in Turkish lira with Citigroup, BNP Paribas and UBS
JPMorgan was investigated by Turkish authorities last year after the bank published a report that advised its clients to short sell the Turkish lira.
MSCI, the provider of research-based indexes and analytics, warned last month that it may relegate Turkey from emerging market status to frontier-market status because of bans on short selling and stock lending.
With the market becoming less transparent, overseas fund managers, especially with short-term portfolios, are unenthusiastic about the Turkish market and are becoming more concerned about any forthcoming introduction of other liquidity restrictions.
The exodus of foreign capital is likely to undermine Turkey’s drive for economic growth, especially during the coronavirus pandemic when employment and investment levels have gone down, with the Turkish lira facing serious volatility.