WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: All eyes on OPEC’s meet next week

OPEC’s own forecast for global oil demand growth remains unchanged in 2020 at 1.08 million bpd. (AFP)
Updated 30 November 2019
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WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: All eyes on OPEC’s meet next week

  • OPEC will meet next week on Dec. 5-6

Although Brent crude dropped below $63 per barrel by the week closing, oil prices are still very close to the levels that prevailed around OPEC’s meeting six months ago when an output cut rollover was suggested till March 2020.

OPEC will meet next week on Dec. 5-6 and so far the efforts of the OPEC+ group of producers have been successful in absorbing the market surplus.

At the end of 2016 OECD stocks were 299 million barrels above the latest five-year average, which was OPEC’s key measure for its oil output strategy for those three years.

OECD commercial oil stocks for March 2018 were 40 million barrels below the latest five-year average, which meant that the OPEC+ output cuts of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) since January 2017 were successful in driving OECD commercial oil stocks below the five-year average within just 15 months of the new  production cut strategy.

The continuing efforts in the past three years have ensured that the market is in balance and preventing any surplus building up.

By January this year OECD commercial oil stocks were at 19 million barrels above the latest five-year average — which coincided with the latest OPEC+ output cuts of 1.2 million bpd.

According to the OPEC monthly oil market report  of November 2019, OECD commercial oil stocks stand at 28.2 million barrels above the latest five-year average. This means that OECD commercial crude stocks have been increasing regardless of OPEC+ output cuts. However, OPEC monthly reports forecast a sharp fall in calls on its crude in the first half of next year, while non-OPEC supply is set to increase ahead of weak global demand growth.

OPEC’s own forecast for global oil demand growth remains unchanged in 2020 at 1.08 million bpd, but demand is projected to be flat in the first and second quarter, when non-OPEC supply is set to rise by 1.79 million bpd.

However, there are many non-OPEC supply uncertainties in 2020. 

According to OPEC’s own outlook, a rollover remains the most likely outcome of the 177th meeting.

• Faisal Faeq is an energy and oil marketing adviser. He was formerly with OPEC and Saudi Aramco. Twitter:@faisalfaeq


Arab food and beverage sector draws $22bn in foreign investment over 2 decades: Dhaman 

Updated 28 December 2025
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Arab food and beverage sector draws $22bn in foreign investment over 2 decades: Dhaman 

JEDDAH: Foreign investors committed about $22 billion to the Arab region’s food and beverage sector over the past two decades, backing 516 projects that generated roughly 93,000 jobs, according to a new sectoral report. 

In its third food and beverage industry study for 2025, the Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corp., known as Dhaman, said the bulk of investment flowed to a handful of markets. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Morocco and Qatar attracted 421 projects — about 82 percent of the total — with capital expenditure exceeding $17 billion, or nearly four-fifths of overall investment. 

Projects in those five countries accounted for around 71,000 jobs, representing 76 percent of total employment created by foreign direct investment in the sector over the 2003–2024 period, the report said, according to figures carried by the Kuwait News Agency. 

“The US has been the region's top food and beverage investor over the past 22 years with 74 projects or 14 projects of the total, and Capex of approximately $4 billion or 18 percent of the total, creating more than 14,000 jobs,” KUNA reported. 

Investment was also concentrated among a small group of multinational players. The sector’s top 10 foreign investors accounted for roughly 15 percent of projects, 32 percent of capital expenditure and 29 percent of newly created jobs.  

Swiss food group Nestlé led in project count with 14 initiatives, while Ukrainian agribusiness firm NIBULON topped capital spending and job creation, investing $2 billion and generating around 6,000 jobs. 

At the inter-Arab investment level, the report noted that 12 Arab countries invested in 108 projects, accounting for about 21 percent of total FDI projects in the sector over the past 22 years. These initiatives, carried out by 65 companies, involved $6.5 billion in capital expenditure, representing 30 percent of total FDI, and generated nearly 28,000 jobs. 

The UAE led inter-Arab investments, accounting for 45 percent of total projects and 58 percent of total capital expenditure, the report added, according to KUNA. 

The report also noted that the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar topped the Arab ranking as the most attractive countries for investment in the sector in 2024, followed by Oman, Bahrain, Algeria, Morocco, and Kuwait. 

Looking ahead, Dhaman expects consumer demand to continue rising. Food and non-alcoholic beverage sales across 16 Arab countries are projected to increase 8.6 percent to more than $430 billion by the end of 2025, equivalent to 4.2 percent of global sales, before exceeding $560 billion by 2029. 

Sales are expected to remain highly concentrated geographically, with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, the UAE and Iraq accounting for about 77 percent of the regional total. By product category, meat and poultry are forecast to lead with sales of about $106 billion, followed by cereals, pasta and baked goods at roughly $63 billion. 

Average annual per capita spending on food and non-alcoholic beverages in the region is projected to rise 7.2 percent to more than $1,845 by the end of 2025, approaching the global average, and to reach about $2,255 by 2029. Household spending on these products is expected to represent 25.8 percent of total expenditure in 13 Arab countries, above the global average of 24.2 percent. 

Arab external trade in food and beverages grew more than 15 percent in 2024 to $195 billion, with exports rising 18 percent to $56 billion and imports increasing 14 percent to $139 billion. Brazil was the largest foreign supplier to the region, exporting $16.5 billion worth of products, while Saudi Arabia ranked as the top Arab exporter at $6.6 billion.