WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: All eyes on OPEC’s meet next week

OPEC’s own forecast for global oil demand growth remains unchanged in 2020 at 1.08 million bpd. (AFP)
Updated 30 November 2019
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WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: All eyes on OPEC’s meet next week

  • OPEC will meet next week on Dec. 5-6

Although Brent crude dropped below $63 per barrel by the week closing, oil prices are still very close to the levels that prevailed around OPEC’s meeting six months ago when an output cut rollover was suggested till March 2020.

OPEC will meet next week on Dec. 5-6 and so far the efforts of the OPEC+ group of producers have been successful in absorbing the market surplus.

At the end of 2016 OECD stocks were 299 million barrels above the latest five-year average, which was OPEC’s key measure for its oil output strategy for those three years.

OECD commercial oil stocks for March 2018 were 40 million barrels below the latest five-year average, which meant that the OPEC+ output cuts of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) since January 2017 were successful in driving OECD commercial oil stocks below the five-year average within just 15 months of the new  production cut strategy.

The continuing efforts in the past three years have ensured that the market is in balance and preventing any surplus building up.

By January this year OECD commercial oil stocks were at 19 million barrels above the latest five-year average — which coincided with the latest OPEC+ output cuts of 1.2 million bpd.

According to the OPEC monthly oil market report  of November 2019, OECD commercial oil stocks stand at 28.2 million barrels above the latest five-year average. This means that OECD commercial crude stocks have been increasing regardless of OPEC+ output cuts. However, OPEC monthly reports forecast a sharp fall in calls on its crude in the first half of next year, while non-OPEC supply is set to increase ahead of weak global demand growth.

OPEC’s own forecast for global oil demand growth remains unchanged in 2020 at 1.08 million bpd, but demand is projected to be flat in the first and second quarter, when non-OPEC supply is set to rise by 1.79 million bpd.

However, there are many non-OPEC supply uncertainties in 2020. 

According to OPEC’s own outlook, a rollover remains the most likely outcome of the 177th meeting.

• Faisal Faeq is an energy and oil marketing adviser. He was formerly with OPEC and Saudi Aramco. Twitter:@faisalfaeq


PIF-backed AviLease achieves revenue of $664m and 19% growth in 2025

Updated 27 February 2026
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PIF-backed AviLease achieves revenue of $664m and 19% growth in 2025

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund-backed AviLease achieved exceptional performance and sustainable business growth during 2025, supported by the strategic expansion of its global platform.

According to its financial results for 2025, AviLease recorded total revenues of $664 million, an annual increase of 19 percent, driven by disciplined growth in its asset portfolio and strong performance in aircraft remarketing amid sustained global demand for modern, fuel-efficient aircraft, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

Profit before tax doubled compared to the previous year, reaching $122 million. The year witnessed an expansion in AviLease’s portfolio, reaching 202 owned and managed aircraft, leased to over 50 airline companies in more than 30 countries. 

The total value of the company’s assets stabilized at $9.3 billion. AviLease maintained a 100 percent fleet utilization rate, reflecting the resilience of its business model, the efficiency of its asset management, and the strength of its strategic relationships with airlines around the world.

AviLease concluded purchase agreements for aircraft from Airbus, including the A320neo family and A350F, and Boeing 737 aircraft, aiming to enhance its future asset portfolio with modern, fuel-efficient aircraft. This step will contribute to supporting future growth and meeting increasing customer demand for the latest aircraft, aligning with the Kingdom’s ambitions to become a leading global aviation hub.

AviLease strengthened its prestigious credit standing by obtaining a strong Baa2 credit ratings from Moody’s and BBB from Fitch, reflecting its financial solidity, managerial discipline, and efficiency in managing leverage. The company also successfully issued senior unsecured bonds worth $850 million last November under Regulation 144A/RegS. This issuance contributed to diversifying its funding sources and enhancing its financial flexibility.

Commenting on the results, AviLease CEO Edward O’Byrne said: “This exceptional performance reflects the quality of the company’s investment portfolio, the strength of its partnerships with airlines, and its strategic focus on responsibly deploying capital into highly sought-after, efficient, modern aircraft assets.”

He added: “As aviation markets continue to grow, AviLease is strategically positioned to continue its expansion plans and deliver sustainable long-term value for shareholders, contributing to the Kingdom’s ambitions.”

Throughout 2025, AviLease continued to play a pivotal role in the Kingdom’s growing aviation sector and contributed directly to the launch and scaling of the new national carrier, Riyadh Air, by completing a sale and leaseback transaction for a Boeing 787-9 aircraft, which thereby became the first aircraft to join the airline’s fleet.

AviLease also established a strategic partnership with Hassana Investment Co. This partnership aims to provide an opportunity for local and international investors to enter the aircraft financing asset class and benefit from AviLease’s technical expertise and operational capabilities to support partnership growth and enhance performance. 

Hassana Investment Co. has agreed to acquire an initial portfolio of 10 modern aircraft from AviLease.