WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: OPEC and IEA fail to factor in global oil supply threat
Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) see lots of oil supplies through 2020, each flagging similarly pessimistic oil demand growth outlook
Updated 13 October 2019
Faisal Faeq
Oil prices recorded their first weekly gain in two weeks, driven higher by unrest in Iraq and Ecuador, as well as by optimism over talks between the US and China aimed at ending their trade war.
The attack on an Iranian oil tanker off the coast of Jeddah overshadowed the latest hints from OPEC about the possibility of making deeper output cuts.
Brent crude finished the week at $60.51 per barrel, while the US WTI measure also advanced to $54.70 per barrel.
Supply disruptions originating from US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela continued to make for a tight spot market even as concerns over slower global growth and the US-China trade war put downward pressure on the market for future oil deliveries.
Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) see lots of oil supplies through 2020, each flagging similarly pessimistic oil demand growth outlook that may have neglected the fragility of global spare production capacity.
In their monthly reports, neither OPEC or the IEA factored in concerns about global oil supply threats — even if Saudi Arabia took just 12 days to restore output to pre-attack levels without necessitating the suspension of exports.
The speed and efficiency of the Saudi response may have lulled the market into a false sense of security because if such attacks happen elsewhere, the story could have been very different — with serious supply outages sending the oil price rocketing.
OPEC and the IEA have pumped pessimism into the market that is helping to put downward pressure on oil prices.
Separately, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), sharply lowered its oil price outlook as it sees weak oil demand growth more than offsetting the higher risks of supply disruptions after the recent attacks.
It expects Brent to average $63.37 per barrel in 2019, and $59.93 per barrel in 2020. It sees WTI averaging $56.26 per barrel in 2019 and $54.43 per barrel in 2020.
The EIA forecast US oil production to average 12.26 million bpd in 2019, and 13.17 million bpd in 2020.
However there may be a mismatch here between its expectations of a lower oil price and higher US output because the Permian producers require higher prices than those forecast to sustain capital expenditure.
Hence, such lower oil prices forecast for 2019 and 2020 should see oil production growth trending lower as budgets are squeezed.
S&P Platts Global reported US oil drilling was 19.8 percent lower than a year earlier, while the US oil and gas rig count has also been declining since the end of last year — dipping to 931 lately after a high of 1,233 in mid-November 2018.
Such numbers raise questions over the sustainability of the US shale oil output growth without a corresponding hike in oil prices.
Building bridges: Saudi Arabia leads Gulf-Asia tech leap
Updated 01 January 2026
Waad Hussain
ALKHOBAR: Saudi Arabia is forging new academic connections with Asia as the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 accelerates reforms in education and innovation.
Two academics — Prof. Eman AbuKhousa, a data science professor at the University of Europe for Applied Sciences in Dubai, and Prof. Hui Kai-Lung, acting dean of the HKUST Business School in Hong Kong —emphasize that the Kingdom’s transformation is reshaping the development of artificial intelligence and fintech talent across the region.
For AbuKhousa, responsible AI is not just about technology; it is fundamentally about intention. “It is about aligning technology with human values: ensuring fairness, transparency, and accountability in every system we build.”
She highlighted that the Middle East’s heritage of trust and ethics gives the region a competitive advantage. “Institutions should embed ethics and cultural context into AI education and create multidisciplinary labs where engineers collaborate with social scientists and ethicists,” she said.
At the University of Europe for Applied Sciences in Dubai, AbuKhousa trains students to question data, identify bias, and integrate integrity into innovation.
Asian universities like HKUST play a growing role in cross-border education partnerships with Saudi institutions.
“Educators must model responsible use by explaining how data is sourced and decisions are made,” she explained. “Ultimately, responsible AI is less about algorithms than about intention; teaching future innovators to ask not only ‘Can we?’ but ‘Should we?’”
She further noted:“Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 has turned digital education into a national movement placing technology and innovation at the heart of human development.”
AbuKhousa emphasized the transformative opportunities for women in the Kingdom: “Today, Saudi female students are designing models, leading AI startups, and redefining what digital leadership looks like.”
Prof. Hui views this transformation through the lens of fintech. “Fintech is deeply embedded in Vision 2030, serving as a key enabler of its three pillars: a vibrant society, a thriving economy, and an ambitious nation,” he said.
Hui stressed that Saudi Arabia’s investment capacity and modern regulatory framework “create a conducive environment for innovation.” Having collaborated with Aramco, The Financial Academy, and Prince Mohammed Bin Salman College of Business and Entrepreneurship, he highlighted the strategic potential of the Kingdom’s young population. “The Kingdom has one of the youngest populations in the world, with a median age below 30,” he said.
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“This demographic presents a tremendous opportunity for higher education to shape future leaders, and our collaborations in Saudi Arabia are highly targeted to support this goal.”
AbuKhousa argued that universities must lead innovation rather than follow it. “Universities must evolve from teaching institutions into innovation ecosystems,” she said. “The real bridge between research and industry lies in applied collaboration: joint labs, shared data projects, and co-supervised capstones where students solve live industry challenges.”
“At UE Dubai, we’ve introduced an Honorary Senate of Business Leaders to strengthen that bridge, bringing decision-makers directly into the learning process,” she added.
DID YOU KNOW?
Vision 2030 has made digital education central to Saudi Arabia’s development strategy.
Women in Saudi Arabia are now designing AI models and leading startups.
Universities are transforming into innovation ecosystems bridging research and industry.
Cross-border collaborations with Hong Kong and Dubai are accelerating fintech and AI growth.
Hui noted that cross-border cooperation between Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia is growing rapidly. “Saudi Arabia’s scale, strategic location, and leadership in the Arab world offer Hong Kong an ideal partner,” he said. “Hong Kong’s academic and regulatory experience can help the Kingdom fast-track its digital transformation.”
He highlighted lessons from Hong Kong’s fintech journey. “Hong Kong’s fintech journey offers critical lessons for Saudi Arabia, particularly in creating a balanced ecosystem for innovation,” he said. “Education and regulation are both important. We need education at all levels and beyond schools to expose people to these ideas; having diverse and rich experiences also helps, as the education needs to be supplemented by real-life implementation and usage experience. That is what Hong Kong can offer.”
AbuKhousa emphasized that women’s participation in technology must extend beyond access to influence. “Empowering women in technology begins with reimagining representation: from inclusion to influence,” she said. “We need more women not only learning tech, but leading teams, designing systems, and shaping AI policy. Institutions must normalize women’s presence in decision-making spaces and provide visible mentorship networks to counter imposter syndrome.”
Both experts agreed that innovation must remain human-centered and accountable. “As AI becomes integral to financial systems, governments must strike a careful balance between innovation, data ethics, and compliance,” Hui said. “Establishing clear regulatory frameworks and transparency standards is crucial.”
AbuKhousa concurred, emphasizing the role of education in AI adoption: “Educators must position generative AI as a thinking partner, not a shortcut. The goal is to teach students how to use AI critically, not merely that they can.”
Hui predicts that “AI, blockchain, and cybersecurity will be transformative forces in the region’s financial sector.” AbuKhousa sees a similar momentum in education: “The Gulf is entering a defining phase where AI becomes the backbone of education and workforce development.”
The experts concluded that the Kingdom’s digital transformation, anchored in Vision 2030, is connecting classrooms, industries, and continents through human-centered innovation.
