Syria’s regime on path to come in from the cold

A Syrian girl plays with pigeons, as life has started to return to normal in the Syrian capital Damascus and other major cities across Syria. (AP)
Updated 30 December 2018
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Syria’s regime on path to come in from the cold

  • “Assad will look to build on his success in 2018”
  • Syria’s war has killed more than 360,000 people

BEIRUT: Almost eight years into Syria’s civil war, President Bashar Assad seems closer than ever to securing a comeback at home and in the Arab region, analysts say.

As 2018 ends, the Moscow-backed government in Damascus is in control of nearly two-thirds of Syria, after notching up a string of victories against fighters and militants.

And after a shock announcement by the US this month that it is to pull all 2,000 of its troops out of Syria, the regime also seems on track to regain influence in parts of the country under Kurdish-led control.

On Friday, Damascus sent troops to a northern area near the border with Turkey to stave off a long-threatened Turkish assault on the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) there.

It did so at the invitation of the Kurds, who feel exposed by the shock withdrawal announcement by the US, their principal backer.

The Kurds reaching out to the regime represented the latest in a string of achievements for Assad, said Mutlu Civiroglu, an expert in Kurdish affairs.

“He is consolidating his power day by day diplomatically and militarily,” he said.

Assad had previously threatened to retake SDF-held oil-rich territory, whether through ongoing talks or by force.

“Rather than fighting with the Kurds, the government is now invited by the Kurds to enter these regions,” Civiroglu said.

“There can be nothing better than this for Assad,” the analyst added.

Aside from SDF-held northeastern Syria, the opposition-held region of Idlib remains beyond Assad’s control, but is subject to a cease-fire deal.

The SDF are battling to expel the last Daesh militants from their eastern holdout near the Iraqi border. But the militants also retain a presence in the country’s vast Badia desert.

Kurdish fighters have spearheaded the fight against Daesh in Syria, and the presence of US-led coalition members alongside the SDF in northern Syria had previously deterred Turkey from attacking.

The US announcement last week sparked renewed fears of an assault, after two previous Turkish incursions inside the war-torn country.

But President Donald Trump’s pullout order has also sent a message to fellow Arab countries in the region, says Nicholas Heras, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security.

“Trump’s decision to withdraw US forces from Syria sent the signal to the Arab states that they need to engage with Assad on their own terms and not wait for US policy to come into focus,” he said.

Even before any US troops pull out, a drive to bring Assad back into the Arab fold seems to have picked up momentum in recent weeks.

The United Arab Emirates Embassy in Damascus reopened on Thursday, 10 days after Sudanese President Omar Bashir made the first visit of any Arab leader to the Syrian capital since the start of the war.

Bahrain has announced it will re-open its diplomatic mission.

Syria’s war has killed more than 360,000 people and displaced millions since it began with the brutal repression of anti-Assad protests in 2011.

The UN estimates the conflict has cost the country close to $400 billion (€350 million).

Heras said the president would be seeking deals with wealthy Gulf states to help rebuild.

“Assad will look to build on his success in 2018 by scoring deals with the Arab states, especially the Gulf, to kick start the reconstruction of Syria,” he said.

Syria was suspended from the Arab League in November 2011, as the death toll was escalating and several regional powers bet on Assad’s demise.

Most Gulf states closed their embassies in 2012.

An Arab diplomat in Beirut who did not want to be named spoke to AFP about an unprecedented Arab “openness toward Damascus.”

And a high-ranking Iraqi official has told AFP Baghdad was helping to mediate a restoration of ties between Damascus and Qatar, a country in a bitter feud with its Gulf neighbors.

These efforts come ahead of the next Arab League summit to be held in Tunis in March.

On Jan. 19 and 20, the Arab Economic Summit in Beirut could provide a further opportunity to discuss Syria’s possible attendance at the Tunis event.

Several sources say Egypt is playing a key role in efforts toward Assad’s comeback on the Arab scene.

On Dec. 22, Syrian intelligence chief Ali Mamluk, a key regime figure, visited Cairo for talks with Egyptian officials.

A Lebanese diplomatic source who asked to remain unnamed told AFP “there is a project to reactivate Syria’s membership” at the Arab League.

“Egypt is supporting it,” this source said.


Abbas reiterates opposition to displacement of Palestinians

Russian President Vladimir Putin with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas at the Senate Palace of the Kremlin in Moscow. (AP)
Updated 8 sec ago
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Abbas reiterates opposition to displacement of Palestinians

  • During Moscow talks, president calls for immediate halt to Israeli acts of terror
  • Historically, Russia has supported and stood by the Palestinian people at political and diplomatic levels

MOSCOW: The Palestinian National Authority’s President Mahmoud Abbas has reiterated his opposition to all attempts to displace Palestinian people from their land.

Speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the presidential palace in Moscow, Abbas was reported by the Kremlin’s official website as saying that “the Palestinian people are holding on to their land, and we categorically oppose attempts by the Americans and Israelis to expatriate Palestinians beyond Palestinian territory.” 
He said the Palestinian people “will not abandon their land, whatever the cost.” Abbas stressed the need to fully implement US President Donald Trump’s peace plan, leading to the withdrawal of occupation forces and the launch of the reconstruction process.
He emphasized that the Palestinian Authority would assume a central role in administering the Gaza Strip, and that the enclave and the West Bank constituted two parts of a single territorial unit, with a unified and undifferentiated system of civilian institutions.
He stressed the need for an immediate halt to “Israeli settler colonialism and Israeli acts of terror in the West Bank, including Jerusalem, along with the release of withheld Palestinian funds and the cessation of all measures that undermined the Palestinian Authority and the two-state solution.”
He reaffirmed his commitment to continue the struggle for the realization of the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination and of their right to a fully sovereign, independent state based on the borders of June 4, 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital, while living in security and peace with neighbors.
He told Putin: “What we need is peace, and we hope that with your help and support, we can achieve it — a peace built on the basis of international legal resolutions, decisions of the United Nations, and the principles established following the wars of 1967 and 1973.
“East Jerusalem remains the capital of Palestine, and we know that Russia has always supported — indeed, was the first to support — Palestine, maintaining a firm stance in support of our people.”
Abbas thanked his Russian counterpart for Moscow’s support and commended the bilateral “bonds of friendship” between both countries. He added: “We are friends of Russia and the Russian people. For over 50 years our nations have been bound by a strong friendship that has developed over the decades and continues on the correct path. Russia is a great friend and a nation upon which we rely in many spheres.
“Historically, Russia has supported and stood by the Palestinian people at political and diplomatic levels. Your economic and financial support is both significant in scale and crucial in importance.”
Abbas emphasized moving forward with the implementation of a comprehensive national reform program aimed at consolidating the rule of law, strengthening the principles of good governance, transparency, and accountability, and ensuring the separation of powers.
Putin affirmed Moscow’s “principled and consistent approach” to the Palestinian question.
He said: “We believe that only the establishment and full functioning of the Palestinian state can lead to a lasting settlement of the Middle East conflict.”