LONDON: Britain is hoping this week’s Commonwealth summit will open greater trade with its historic network as it prepares to quit the European single market under Brexit.
The UK is pouncing on the organization’s analysis showing the advantages of trade between Commonwealth countries due to its common language and legal systems.
But some quarters are warning that Britain’s trade with Commonwealth nations lags so far behind that with its European Union neighbors that a straight replacement is impossible.
The 53 member states are gathering for their biennial Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM), being hosted this year in London.
Born out of the former British empire, the voluntary organization focuses on development and democracy, but is turning its attention to boosting trade.
Intra-Commonwealth trade is expected to increase by at least 17 percent to around $700 billion by 2020, according to the 2018 Commonwealth Trade Review.
“Brexit will have wide-ranging economic implications for the UK, the EU and many Commonwealth members,” the report says.
“However, there may also be important opportunities for the UK in the post-Brexit period to... negotiate new bilateral trade agreements with interested Commonwealth members.”
Britain is going for the hard sell during CHOGM.
The summit proper is on Thursday and Friday but kicks off Monday with three days of forums and events that lay the groundwork.
Britain’s International Trade Secretary Liam Fox on Monday chairs a session on catalyzing growth and championing free and fairer trade.
Meanwhile Britain is hosting a reception aimed at showcasing British exports, from food and drink to the English Premier League football trophy.
“You’ve got some of the fastest-growing economies in the world. It will be a great opportunity for us to rebuild old friendships,” British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson told BBC television.
“A lot of that is going to be on the table at the Commonwealth summit,” he said Sunday.
When Britain joined the European Economic Community in 1973, it sidelined historic trading links with its former empire, causing much hurt in some countries.
Britain is due to leave the EU in March 2019. A transition period runs until the end of 2020 after which the UK will be out of the European single market and customs union.
Britain is gearing up to strike its own trade deals outside the single market and is looking to its former global network.
The Economist magazine said Saturday that the Commonwealth “won’t save Britain from Brexit,” calling the idea that Commonwealth trade could replace EU trade “an amiable delusion.”
In terms of goods and services trade in 2016, Britain does more business with 15 countries — nine of them in the EU — before its biggest Commonwealth trade partners Canada and India.
Overall, the EU accounts for nearly half of Britain’s trade; the Commonwealth accounts for a tenth.
Philip Murphy, director of the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, wrote in The Guardian newspaper: “Sorry, Brexiters. Banking on the Commonwealth is a joke.
“The notion that it can pick up the slack when the UK leaves the EU is nonsense.”
Given its highly diverse membership, if agreements can be struck within the Commonwealth, they can likely achieve wider support.
At the last Commonwealth summit in Malta in November 2015, leaders struck a deal on climate change that paved the way for the Paris agreement days afterwards.
The theme this time is “Towards a Common Future.” The group is hoping to agree an ocean governance charter, a connectivity agenda for trade and investment, and a declaration on tackling cybercrime.
“CHOGM 2018 promises to deliver transformational change for the people of the Commonwealth,” said the organization’s Secretary-General Patricia Scotland.
“Immediate impact combined with wider influence make the Commonwealth an unparalleled force for building understanding and cooperation toward realizing global goals for social and political progress, inclusive prosperity, and sustainable development.”
The summit comes immediately after the 2018 quadrennial Commonwealth Games on Australia’s Gold Coast.
Britain last hosted CHOGM in 1997 and is laying on the style.
Queen Elizabeth II, the Head of the Commonwealth, is hosting a dinner for the leaders at Buckingham Palace in London. On Friday they gather in private at Windsor Castle, west of the city.
Britain hoping for Brexit boost from Commonwealth summit
Britain hoping for Brexit boost from Commonwealth summit
World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn
- Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years
- Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience
DAVOS: Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience, as global leaders gathered in Davos on Friday against a backdrop of trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change.
Speaking on the final day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years.
“We need to define who ‘we’ are in this so-called new world order,” he said, arguing that many emerging economies had been adapting to a more fragmented global system for decades.
Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience. In energy markets, he pointed out that the focus should remain on balancing supply and demand in a way that incentivized investment without harming the global economy.
“Our role in OPEC is to stabilize the market,” he said.
His remarks were echoed by Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, who said that uncertainty had weighed heavily on growth, investment and geopolitical risk, but that reality had proven more resilient.
“The economy has adjusted and continues to move forward,” Alibrahim said.
Alibrahim warned that pragmatism had become scarce, trust increasingly transactional, and collaboration more fragile. “Stability cannot be quickly built or bought,” he said.
Alibrahim called for a shift away from preserving the status quo towards the practical ingredients that made cooperation work, stressing discipline and long-term thinking even when views diverged.
Quoting Saudi Arabia’s founding King Abdulaziz Al-Saud, he added: “Facing challenges requires strength and confidence, there is no virtue in weakness. We cannot sit idle.”
President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde stressed the importance of distinguishing meaningful data from headline noise, saying: “Our duty as central bankers is to separate the signal from the noise. The real numbers are growth numbers not nominal ones.”
Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva echoed Lagarde’s sentiments, saying that the world had entered a more “shock prone” environment shaped by technology and geopolitics.
Director General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that the global trade systems currently in place were remarkably resilient, pointing out that 72 percent of global trade continued despite disruptions.
She urged governments and businesses, however, to avoid overreacting.
Okonjo Iweala said that a return to the old order was unlikely, but trade would remain essential. Georgieva agreed, saying global trade would continue, albeit in a different form.
Georgieva warned that AI would accelerate economic transformation at an unprecedented speed. The IMF expects 60 percent of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or displaced, with entry-level roles and middle-class workers facing the greatest pressure.
Lagarde warned that without cooperation, capital and data flows would suffer, undermining productivity and growth.
Al-Jadaan said that power dynamics had always shaped global relations, but dialogue remained essential. “The fact that thousands of leaders came here says something,” he said. “Some things cannot be done alone.”
In another session titled Geopolitical Risks Outlook for 2026, former US Democratic representative Jane Harman said that because of AI, the world was safer in some ways but worse off in others.
“I think AI can make the world riskier if it gets in the wrong hands and is used without guardrails to kill all of us. But AI also has enormous promise. AI may be a development tool that moves the third world ahead faster than our world, which has pretty messy politics,” she said.
American economist Eswar Prasad said that currently the world was in a “doom loop.”
Prasad said that the global economy was stuck in a negative-feedback loop and economics, domestic politics and geopolitics were only bringing out the worst in each other.
“Technology could lead to shared prosperity but what we are seeing is much more concentration of economic and financial power within and between countries, potentially making it a destabilizing force,” he said.
Prasad predicted that AI and tech development would impact growing economies the most. But he said that there was uncertainty about whether these developments would create job opportunities and growth in developing countries.
Professor of international political economy at the University of New South Wales in Australia, Elizabeth Thurbon, said that China was driving a Green Energy transition in a way that should be modeled by the rest of the world.
“The Chinese government is using the Green Energy Transition to boost energy security and is manufacturing its own energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports,” she explained.
Thurbon said that China was using this transition to boost economic security, social security and geostrategic security. She viewed this as a huge security-enhancing opportunity and every country had the ability to use the energy transition as a national security multiplier.
“We are seeing an enormous dynamism across emerging market economies driven by China. This boom loop is being driven by enormous investments in green energy. Two-thirds of global investment flowing into renewable energy is driven largely by China,” she said.
Thurbon said that China was taking an interesting approach to building relationships with countries by putting economic engagement on the forefront of what they had to offer.
“China is doing all it can to ensure economic partnership with emerging economies are productive. It’s important to approach alliances as not just political alliances but investment in economy, future and the flourishment of a state,” she said.
The panel criticized global economic treaties and laws, and expressed the need for immediate reforms in economic governing bodies.
“If you are a developing economy, the rules of the WTO, for example, are not helpful for you to develop. A lot of the rules make it difficult to pursue an economic development agenda. These regulations are not allowing the economies to grow,” Thurbon said.
“Serious reform must be made in international trade agreements, economic bodies and rules and guidelines,” she added.
Prasad echoed this sentiment and said there was a need for national and international reform in global economic institutions.
“These institutions are not working very well so we can reconfigure them or rebuild them from scratch. But unfortunately the task of rebuilding falls into the hands of those who are shredding them,” he said.
WEF attendees were invited to join the Global Collaboration and Growth meeting to be held in Saudi Arabia in April 2026 to continue addressing the complex global challenges and engage in dialogue.
