CAIRO: The decision by Egypt’s former prime minister not to run in presidential elections deprives the race of its most serious challenger to Abdel Fattah El-Sisi.
Egypt will hold a presidential vote at the end of March, the election commission said on Monday.
While he has not yet announced his candidacy, El-Sisi is widely expected to stand and win the third presidential election in Egypt since the uprising that toppled Hosni Mubarak in 2011.
Ahmed Shafiq said on Sunday he would not be running — reversing a pledge that he would take part.
The ex-air force commander said he did not consider himself “the best person” to fill the position.
“Given that he came in second place in Egypt’s 2012 presidential race, I believe Shafiq was going to be a strong contender,” Amr Hashem, political analyst at the Ahram Center for Strategic Studies, said.
“He was a heavyweight candidate for many factors, and his presence could have made the election season a hot one. But due to all the pressure on him lately, his withdrawal was somehow expected.”
“With his withdrawal, it is likely that no other candidate would be able to potentially make a strong standing in competition with El-Sisi,” Justin Dargin, an expert on the Middle East from Oxford University, said.
After narrowly losing a presidential election to Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Mursi in 2012, Shafiq fled to the UAE where he has lived ever since and disappeared from Egypt’s political scene.
During that time, Shafiq was tried in absentia on corruption charges, but was eventually acquitted.
He returned to the limelight last month when he announced his intention to run in the elections and return soon to Egypt to start his campaign.
A few hours later, Al Jazeera aired a video in which Shafiq said he was not allowed to leave the UAE and criticized the UAE for meddling in Egypt’s affairs.
Despite claims by Shafiq’s lawyer and his party that the video was leaked to the Qatari-owned TV network, Shafiq was reportedly given 48 hours to leave the UAE.
His arrival in Egypt was surrounded by controversy and Shafiq took part in a phone interview with a popular TV show, during which he said he was OK.
His appearance on Al Jazeera placed him in hot water, with some accusing him of collaborating with the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar, considered enemies of the Egyptian state.
The 76-year-old former aviation minister was the last prime minister to hold office under Mubarak.
Announcing on Twitter his decision to withdraw, he said that his time back in Egypt had led him to reconsider the decision.
“My absence of more than five years perhaps distanced me from being able to very closely follow what is going on in our nation in terms of developments and achievements despite the difficulty of the conditions,” he said.
“I have seen that I will not be the ideal person to lead the state’s affairs during the coming period. Thus, I have decided not to run in the upcoming 2018 presidential elections.”
“It was expected that he would reconsider his intention to run. There were several factors that played a role,” Dargin said.
“And, even if Shafiq did run, it appears that with the Egyptian body politic, he is not nearly as popular as El-Sisi, seeing that his years away from Egypt left him out of touch with the enormous changes that occurred since the revolution.
“It would be expected that even if Shafiq did run, El-Sisi would still dominate the polls because of his popularity and the respect garnered since he ascended to the presidency.”
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Shafiq’s election withdrawal deprives El-Sisi of only serious rival
Shafiq’s election withdrawal deprives El-Sisi of only serious rival
Tourism on hold as Middle East war casts uncertainty
- Cancelled flights, postponed trips and a great deal of uncertainty: the war in the Middle East is casting a long shadow over the tourism outlook for the region
PARIS: Cancelled flights, postponed trips and a great deal of uncertainty: the war in the Middle East is casting a long shadow over the tourism outlook for a region that has become a prized destination for travelers worldwide.
“My last group of tourists left three days ago, and all the other groups planned for March have been canceled,” said Nazih Rawashdeh, a tour guide near Irbid, in northern Jordan.
“This is the start of the high season here. It’s catastrophic,” he told AFP.
“And yet there’s no problem in Jordan. It’s perfectly safe.”
Across the world, tour operators are scrambling to find solutions for clients stranded in the region or who had trips planned there.
“The priority is getting those already there back home,” said Alain Capestan, president of the French tour operator Comptoir des Voyages.
He said however that the war was also affecting customers who have traveled to other parts of the world, as the Gulf region is home to several major aviation hubs — Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha.
Like other companies, the German tour operators surveyed by AFP — Alltours, Dertour, Schauinsland-Reisen — announced they would cover the cost of extra nights for clients stranded in the Middle East. They also canceled trips to the UAE and Oman until at least March 7.
Swiss operator MSC Cruises, which has a ship stranded in Dubai, told AFP on Thursday it was sending five charter flights to airlift nearly 1,000 passengers.
The firm said it expected the passengers to be out of the region by Saturday, without specifying the destinations of the flights or the nationalities of the holidaymakers.
The British travel industry association ABTA said agencies “would not be sending customers to the region for as long as the British Foreign Office advises against all non-essential travel.”
Customers whose holidays were canceled in recent days will be able to rebook or receive a refund, it said.
- Economic impact -
The war is disrupting a sector that had been booming in the region.
According to UN Tourism, in 2025 around 100 million tourists visited the Middle East — nearly seven percent of all international tourists recorded worldwide. That figure had grown three percent year-on-year and 39 percent compared to the pre-pandemic period.
Depending on the destination, Europeans make up a large share of visitors, followed by tourists from South Asia, the Americas, and other Middle Eastern countries.
For example, nearby markets accounted for 26 percent of total visitors to Dubai in 2025, according to its Ministry of Tourism and Economy.
Against this backdrop analysts Oxford Economics warns that “a decline in tourist flows to the region will deal a more severe economic blow than in the past, as tourism’s share of GDP has grown, as has employment in the sector.”
“We estimate inbound arrivals to the Middle East could decline 11-27 percent year-on-year in 2026 due to the conflict, compared to our December forecast that projected 13 percent growth,” said Director of Global Forecasting Helen McDermott.
That would translate, according to the firm, to between 23 and 38 million fewer international visitors compared to the prior scenario, and a loss of $34 to $56 billion in tourist spending.
After Covid and then the conflict in Gaza, tourists had been coming back, said Rawashdeh, the Jordanian tour guide.
“For the past six months, people working in tourism here had hope. And now there’s a war. This is going to be terrible for the economy,” he said.
“We’ve definitely noticed an understandable slowdown in new bookings from our partners right now, but we fully expect that to bounce back as soon as things settle down and travelers feel more confident,” said Ibrahim Mohamed, marketing director of Middle East Travel Alliance, which offers direct tours to American and British operators.
He remains optimistic: “The Middle East has always been an incredibly resilient market, and demand always bounces back fast once stability returns.”
“My last group of tourists left three days ago, and all the other groups planned for March have been canceled,” said Nazih Rawashdeh, a tour guide near Irbid, in northern Jordan.
“This is the start of the high season here. It’s catastrophic,” he told AFP.
“And yet there’s no problem in Jordan. It’s perfectly safe.”
Across the world, tour operators are scrambling to find solutions for clients stranded in the region or who had trips planned there.
“The priority is getting those already there back home,” said Alain Capestan, president of the French tour operator Comptoir des Voyages.
He said however that the war was also affecting customers who have traveled to other parts of the world, as the Gulf region is home to several major aviation hubs — Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha.
Like other companies, the German tour operators surveyed by AFP — Alltours, Dertour, Schauinsland-Reisen — announced they would cover the cost of extra nights for clients stranded in the Middle East. They also canceled trips to the UAE and Oman until at least March 7.
Swiss operator MSC Cruises, which has a ship stranded in Dubai, told AFP on Thursday it was sending five charter flights to airlift nearly 1,000 passengers.
The firm said it expected the passengers to be out of the region by Saturday, without specifying the destinations of the flights or the nationalities of the holidaymakers.
The British travel industry association ABTA said agencies “would not be sending customers to the region for as long as the British Foreign Office advises against all non-essential travel.”
Customers whose holidays were canceled in recent days will be able to rebook or receive a refund, it said.
- Economic impact -
The war is disrupting a sector that had been booming in the region.
According to UN Tourism, in 2025 around 100 million tourists visited the Middle East — nearly seven percent of all international tourists recorded worldwide. That figure had grown three percent year-on-year and 39 percent compared to the pre-pandemic period.
Depending on the destination, Europeans make up a large share of visitors, followed by tourists from South Asia, the Americas, and other Middle Eastern countries.
For example, nearby markets accounted for 26 percent of total visitors to Dubai in 2025, according to its Ministry of Tourism and Economy.
Against this backdrop analysts Oxford Economics warns that “a decline in tourist flows to the region will deal a more severe economic blow than in the past, as tourism’s share of GDP has grown, as has employment in the sector.”
“We estimate inbound arrivals to the Middle East could decline 11-27 percent year-on-year in 2026 due to the conflict, compared to our December forecast that projected 13 percent growth,” said Director of Global Forecasting Helen McDermott.
That would translate, according to the firm, to between 23 and 38 million fewer international visitors compared to the prior scenario, and a loss of $34 to $56 billion in tourist spending.
After Covid and then the conflict in Gaza, tourists had been coming back, said Rawashdeh, the Jordanian tour guide.
“For the past six months, people working in tourism here had hope. And now there’s a war. This is going to be terrible for the economy,” he said.
“We’ve definitely noticed an understandable slowdown in new bookings from our partners right now, but we fully expect that to bounce back as soon as things settle down and travelers feel more confident,” said Ibrahim Mohamed, marketing director of Middle East Travel Alliance, which offers direct tours to American and British operators.
He remains optimistic: “The Middle East has always been an incredibly resilient market, and demand always bounces back fast once stability returns.”
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