DUBAI: Next year will be “a litmus test for private-sector engagement in the Saudi Arabian economy,” a leading regional economist said in reaction to the Kingdom’s budget announced in Riyadh on Tuesday.
Nasser Saidi, the former chief economist of the Dubai International Financial Centre and Lebanese economy minister, told Arab News, “Much hinges on providing the stimulus and incentives to the SME (small and medium enterprises) sector and women’s greater participation in the labor force.”
He added that the 2018 budget comes at a crucial time in the Kingdom’s economic history: “We see public-private partnerships in infrastructure and development projects, including in public utilities services and social capital sectors such as health and education, as well as the anticipated privatization of state enterprises and the mother of all privatizations, Aramco.”
Jason Tuvey, Middle East economist at London-based consultancy Capital Economics, said the budget — which forecasts the biggest-ever expenditure in the Kingdom’s history — amounted to a “modest” loosening of fiscal policy in 2018.
“The effect of the introduction of the Citizens Account (a plan to compensate the less well-off for the forecast higher cost of living) and the recent SR72 billion ($19.2 billion) private-sector stimulus will be partly offset by the introduction of VAT (value-added tax, set to be introduced in 2018), other fees and levies, and subsidy removal.
“But I should stress that it is just a relatively modest loosening and actually rather less than the loosening this year, as measured by the non-oil budget balance, which we think is the best way to measure it,” he added.
Saidi said the big expenditure was in part enabled by the improvement in oil revenues in the second half of 2017. “The Saudi 2018 budget reflects the modest recovery of oil prices during the latter half of 2017, which resulted in a lower budget deficit than expected, and the start of the implementation of the National Transformation Plan (NTP) 2.0 on a conservative estimate of oil prices in 2018.”
He said: “The services sectors, including tourism and hospitality, and their support infrastructure of transport and logistics (ports, airports and their services) represent low-hanging fruit.”
Tuvey noted that the budget statement had confirmed that the date for achieving a balanced budget is 2023, rather than 2020 as had previously been suggested.
“That is fair enough because policymakers have undertaken a lot of austerity over the past couple of years and the IMF said that they could afford to take longer over it. But that also means there will have to be more austerity over the next few years, in the absence of any great rise in the price of oil,” Tuvey said.
He said that there had appeared to be a big ramp-up in spending in the Kingdom in the final quarter of 2017.
Accounting and consulting firm KPMG released the details of a survey of top executives in the Kingdom, in which it was revealed that 70 percent thought that growth would be between 2 and 5 percent over the next three years.
Saudi budget: 2018 to be ‘litmus test’ for economy
Saudi budget: 2018 to be ‘litmus test’ for economy
Saudi House kicks off Davos with push on Vision 2030, AI platform and ‘humanizing’ tourism
- Saudi ministers dominate pre-summit spotlight at Saudi pavilion, touting Vision 2030’s next phase and human capital as key to global edge
- Ministry of Economy and Planning announced the SUSTAIN Platform which aims to accelerate AI-enabled, cross-sector collaboration for sustainable development
DAVOS: For regulars at the World Economic Forum, Monday in Davos is usually a chance to ease into the week, a time to reconnect, plan meetings and prepare for the intense schedule ahead.
This year, Saudi Arabia moved quickly to fill that lull, taking center stage with a packed program of panels ahead of Tuesday’s official opening.
At the Saudi House — the Kingdom’s official pavilion on the Promenade, returning after its debut as a standalone venue at the 2025 WEF Annual Meeting — Saudi ministers and global executives set out how the Kingdom sees the next phase of its transformation.
Established by the Ministry of Economy and Planning, the venue is pitched as a platform for international thought leaders to tackle the challenges, opportunities and solutions shaping the global economy.
Opening a session on the Kingdom’s role at this year’s Forum and the next phase of Vision 2030 — now in its 10th year and roughly two-thirds complete — Princess Reema bint Bandar, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the US, said human capital “is the actual driver if you want a competitive, modern economy.”
She described one of the biggest achievements of the past decade as the emergence of a highly qualified cohort of young Saudis who could work anywhere in the world but “choose to come home, choose to build at home and choose to deliver at home,” calling this “the biggest symbol of the success of Vision 2030.”
Who can give you optimum access to opportunities while addressing risks? I contend that Saudi Arabia has been able to provide that formula.
Khalid Al-Falih, Saudi minister of investment
On the same panel, Minister of Finance Mohammed Aljadaan said this success is rooted in a “behavioral change” that has strengthened the Kingdom’s credibility with both international partners and its own citizens.
“Credibility comes from being very pragmatic, making sure that you maintain your fiscal policy discipline, but at the same time refocus your resources where it matters,” he said, warning that “markets will call your bluff if you’re not serious.”
The Saudi House, a cross-ministerial initiative led by the Ministry of Economy and Planning, is intended to underscore the Kingdom’s “commitment to global cooperation” by offering “a platform where visionary ideas are shared and shaped,” while showcasing opportunities and lessons from its “unprecedented national transformation.”
Echoing earlier comments to Arab News, Economy and Planning Minister Faisal Alibrahim said the Kingdom’s role as an anchor of stability has helped unlock its potential, stressing that while the objective is to decouple from reliance on a single commodity, “2030 is not the finishing line.”
Khalid Al-Falih, Saudi minister of investment, said Saudi Arabia has been able to enable access to opportunities while addressing major risks, arguing that few countries can match the Kingdom’s overall mix.
“No country has all of those to 100 percent,” he said. “But who can give you the mix that gives you optimum access to opportunities while addressing all of those risks?
“I contend that Saudi Arabia has been able to provide that formula and the proof is in the pudding,” noting that local investment has doubled in recent years to reach levels comparable with India and China.
While societal transformation dominated the morning discussions, the afternoon turned to technology, tourism, sport and culture, four strategic sectors expected to spearhead Vision 2030’s next phase.
The Ministry of Economy and Planning used the day to announce the SUSTAIN Platform, due to launch in 2026, which aims to accelerate AI-enabled, cross-sector collaboration for sustainable development.
The ministry said SUSTAIN will translate the Kingdom’s public and private-sector coordination mandate into a practical national tool to help government entities, businesses, investors, academia and civil society identify credible partners, form trusted coalitions and move initiatives “from planning to implementation more efficiently,” addressing a global challenge where fragmented partnerships often slow delivery and blunt impact.
“We are in a moment in time where technology may well impact the face of humanity,” said Dina Powell McCormick, recently appointed president and vice chairman of Meta, welcoming the Kingdom’s “desire” to partner with technology companies and its embrace of innovation.
Minister of Tourism Ahmed Alkhateeb, discussing how technology is being deployed in his sector, underlined that “in travel and tourism, people are very important. We learn about other people’s culture through interacting with people. We digitalize the unnecessary and humanize the necessary.”
He added that while technological transformation is a priority, “we don’t want to replace this big workforce with technology. I think we need to protect them in Saudi Arabia, where we’re being a model. I’m an advocate of keeping the people.”
Throughout the week, Saudi House will host more than 20 sessions, including over 10 accredited by the WEF, across six themes: Bold Vision, Insights for Impact, People and Human Capability, Quality of Life, Investment and Collaboration, and Welcoming the World.
The pavilion will also launch “NextOn,” a new series of influential and educational talks featuring leading global voices.
