The world economy is projected to grow at an average rate of just over 3 percent per annum from 2011 to 2050, doubling in size by 2032 and nearly doubling again by 2050.
China is projected to overtake the US as the largest economy by 2017 in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and by 2027 in market exchange rate terms. India should become the third 'global economic giant' by 2050, a long way ahead of Brazil, which is expected to move up to 4th place ahead of Japan, according to a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Russia could overtake Germany to become the largest European economy before 2020 in PPP terms and by around 2035 at market exchange rates. Emerging economies such as Mexico and Indonesia could be larger than the UK and France by 2050, and Turkey larger than Italy.
Outside the G20, Vietnam, Malaysia and Nigeria all have strong long-term growth potential, while Poland should comfortably outpace the large Western European economies for the next couple of decades, the PwC said in its report "World in 2050: The BRICs and beyond: Prospects, challenges and opportunities.
The PwC report updated its long-term global economic growth projections, which were last published in January 2011. These are based on a PwC model that takes account of projected trends in demographics, capital investment, education levels and technological progress.
“We can see that emerging economies tend to grow at 4 percent per annum or more, while advanced economies grow at around 2 percent or less — we will continue to live in a two-speed world economy for some decades to come as a catch up process continues,” the report said.
However, even in 2050 average income per capita will still be significantly higher in the advanced economies than in the emerging economies — the current income gap is just too large to bridge fully over this period.
The projected long-term growth trends pose many opportunities and challenges for businesses in the UK and other Western economies. China, India, Brazil and the other emerging markets highlighted in PwC study will become not just low cost production locations but also increasingly large consumer markets. At a time when trend annual growth is projected to be no more than around 2 percent in the advanced economies, companies seeking growth will need to look increasingly to these emerging markets. At the same time, such markets can be challenging places to do business. It will be important to understand and adapt to local rules, regulations and customs. The right entry strategy and, where appropriate, the right joint venture partner(s) will be crucial, as will good relations with local government and regulatory bodies. In some cases, the optimal production locations may not be the same as the largest consumer markets (e.g. investing in Malaysia, Indonesia or Vietnam as a gateway to China or India, or in Poland as a gateway to Russia). The report said there are also important challenges for governments, not least regarding natural resource constraints such as those relating to energy use and climate change.
China projected to overtake US as the largest economy by 2017
China projected to overtake US as the largest economy by 2017
Asian economies weigh impact of fresh Trump tariff moves, confusion
LONDON: US trading partners in Asia weighed fresh uncertainties this weekend after President Donald Trump announced a new tariff on imports, hours after the Supreme Court struck down many of the sweeping levies he used to launch a global trade war.
The court’s ruling invalidated a number of tariffs that the Trump administration had imposed on Asian export powerhouses from China and South Korea to Japan and Taiwan, the world’s largest chipmaker and a key player in tech supply chains.
Within hours, Trump said he would impose a new 10 percent duty on US imports from all countries starting on Feb. 24, which he raised to 15 percent on Feb. 21. The levies, under a different law, are set for 150 days, prompting analysts to warn that more measures could follow, threatening further confusion for businesses and investors.
Hong Kong says tariff ‘fiasco’ plays to city’s strengths
Before the ruling, Trump’s tariff push had strained Washington’s diplomatic relations across Asia, particularly for export-reliant economies integrated into US-bound supply chains.
In Japan, a government spokesman said on Feb. 21 that Tokyo “will carefully examine the content of this ruling and the Trump administration’s response to it, and respond appropriately.”
On Feb. 22, Itsunori Onodera, an executive of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party and a former defense minister, called Trump’s new tariffs “outrageous.”
“As an ally, I’m worried this will only accelerate countries distancing themselves from the US,” Onodera, the LDP tax policy chief, who is not in government, told a talk program on Fuji Television.
China, which is preparing to host Trump in late March, has not responded to the latest tariff moves, as the country is currently on an extended holiday. But a senior financial official in China-ruled Hong Kong described the US situation as a “fiasco.”
Christopher Hui, Hong Kong’s secretary for financial services and the treasury, said Trump’s new levy served to underscore Hong Kong’s “unique trade advantages.”
“This shows the stability of Hong Kong’s policies and our certainty ... it shows global investors the importance of predictability,” Hui told a media briefing on Feb. 21 when asked how the new tariffs would affect the city’s economy.
Hong Kong operates as a separate customs territory from mainland China, a status that has shielded it from direct exposure to US tariffs targeting Chinese goods.
While Washington has imposed duties on mainland exports, Hong Kong-made products have generally faced lower tariff rates, allowing the city to maintain trade flows even as Sino-US tensions escalated.
More confusion after ruling, analysts say
As Trump’s levies escalated through 2025 and early 2026, corporate disclosures tracked by Reuters showed firms across the Asia‑Pacific region reporting financial hits, supply shifts, and withdrawals.
Feb. 20th’s ruling concerns only the tariffs launched by Trump on the basis of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, intended for national emergencies.
Trade policy monitor Global Trade Alert estimated that by itself, the ruling cuts the trade-weighted average US tariff almost in half from 15.4 percent to 8.3 percent.
For those countries with higher US tariff levels, the change is more dramatic. For China, Brazil and India, it will mean double-digit percentage-point cuts, although to still-high levels.
In Taiwan, the government said it was monitoring the situation closely, noting that the US government had yet to determine how to fully implement its trade deals with many countries.
“While the initial impact on Taiwan appears limited, the government will closely monitor developments and maintain close communication with the US to understand specific implementation details and respond appropriately,” a cabinet statement said.
Taiwan has signed two recent deals with the US, including a memorandum of understanding last month that committed Taiwan to invest $250 billion, and a deal was signed this month to lower what Trump calls “reciprocal” tariffs.
Even before Trump raised his new levy to 15 percent, analysts said the court ruling might offer little relief for the global economy. They warned of looming confusion as trading nations brace for moves by Trump to find other means of using levies to circumvent the ruling.
Thailand’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office head Nantapong Chiralerspong said the ruling might even benefit the country’s exports as uncertainty drove a fresh round of “front-loading,” where shippers race to move goods to the US, fearing even higher tariffs.
