RIYADH: S&P Global Ratings affirmed Jordan’s “BB-/B” sovereign credit ratings with a stable outlook, citing economic resilience supported by trade rerouting through Aqaba, stronger remittance inflows and international financial assistance. 

The agency expects real gross domestic product growth to slow to 2.5 percent in 2026 from 2.8 percent in 2025, before averaging 3.2 percent annually from 2027 to 2029. 

S&P said economic reforms, higher international reserves and donor support were helping offset elevated regional security risks, government debt and current account deficits. 

“In 2026, the rerouting of regional trade through Jordan, specifically its port in Aqaba, continues to support growth, while the government's policies aimed at preserving energy supply, mitigating the impact on prices, and easing transportation bottlenecks have helped mitigate a more material economic slowdown,” the report said. 

Growth drivers 

Cargo volumes at Aqaba Port have increased 16 percent year on year as neighboring countries redirect trade through Jordan to avoid regional maritime bottlenecks, according to S&P. 

Planned water, energy, transport and health projects are expected to add 0.3 percentage points to economic growth in 2026 and between 0.6 and 0.8 percentage points annually in 2027 and 2028. 

The projects, valued at about $14 billion through 2028, are expected to be financed 90 percent by private investors. 

Remittances rose 14.3 percent in the first half of 2026. Tourism receipts, meanwhile, fell 5.3 percent to $3.5 billion despite tourist arrivals reaching record levels in July. 

S&P’s growth forecast is slightly below those of other major rating agencies. Fitch Ratings, which affirmed Jordan at “BB-” with a stable outlook in May, expects 2.6 percent growth. Moody’s Ratings maintained its “Ba3” rating and stable outlook in April and forecasts 2.7 percent growth. 

The International Monetary Fund projects growth of 2.7 percent in 2026 and 3.1 percent in 2027, supported by infrastructure investment and economic reforms. 

Fiscal pressures persist 

S&P raised its forecast for Jordan’s consolidated government deficit to 2.2 percent of GDP in 2026 from 1.6 percent previously, citing higher security spending and measures to contain the economic impact of the conflict. 

The agency expects the deficit to narrow to 0.3 percent of GDP by 2029. 

Net general government debt is projected to rise to 77.2 percent of GDP this year before declining to 74.1 percent by 2029. The current account deficit is forecast to widen to 7.2 percent of GDP from 4.8 percent in 2025. 

Gross foreign reserves are expected to reach about $26 billion by the end of 2026, equivalent to 7.7 months of current account payments. 

S&P said it could lower Jordan’s ratings if regional conditions materially weakened the economy or donor support declined. An improvement in regional security, stronger reserves or faster debt reduction could, however, support an upgrade.