KARACHI: Hameed owns five fishing boats, but two of them are going nowhere.

The 65-year-old fisherman has anchored the vessels along Pakistan’s Arabian Sea coast and sent their crews home, as a surge in diesel prices turns trips that once sustained fishermen and their families into an increasingly risky bet.

The same calculation is playing out across Pakistan’s fishing industry. Diesel prices have risen about 52 percent since the Iran war began in February, pushing boats out of service, driving up the price of the catch that does reach shore and threatening a seafood export industry that earned about $568 million last fiscal year.

“The diesel was affordable for us at Rs200 [$0.72] last year,” Hameed, who goes by a single name, told Arab News. “Even at Rs250 [$0.90] it was affordable.”

Diesel now costs Rs412.12 ($1.49) per liter, according to official data.

For Hameed, the difference is measured not just at the fuel pump but in whether a boat is worth sending to sea at all.

“Earlier, we used to take diesel for Rs1.5 million [$5,412] or Rs1.8 million [$6,494], he said, referring to the monthly cost of operations. “Now, we take diesel for Rs3 million [$10,824] or Rs3.5 million [$12,628].”

“It is double,” he continued.

Some trips, Hameed added, simply no longer make economic sense.

“Two of my boats were here for four days. I have anchored them and told the boatmen to go home.”

His three remaining boats are still operating, but Hameed said they too could soon be taken out of service.

“If we are not getting any income, how will we pay for them?”

What begins with a boat staying ashore quickly travels through the rest of the seafood business.

At Arsala Seafoods Ltd, processor Saljok Khan Niazi, 24, said the cost of locally caught seafood was climbing because fishermen needed more money simply to go out and catch it.

“The biggest problem we are facing right now is diesel.”

Seafood that processors previously bought for Rs300-350 was now costing Rs450-500, Niazi said.

But exporters cannot necessarily pass those higher costs on to buyers overseas, leaving the industry squeezed between what it costs to bring fish ashore and what it can fetch abroad.

And increasingly, there is less fish coming in.

Muhammad Zafar Kundi, chairman of the Pakistan Fisheries Exporters Association (PAKFEA), estimated that 20-30 percent of fishing boats had already stopped operating.

“Those who were doing two to three trips per month, have come on one trip,” he said. “If you do not have raw material for production, then what will you export?”

The timing is particularly difficult for an industry that Pakistan hopes will bring in more foreign exchange.

The PAKFEA has set a $700 million export target for FY27, while the government expects the figure to cross $680 million.

But Kundi warned the fuel shock could put those ambitions out of reach.

“If this situation persists and the price of diesel does not go down, then our exports can reduce by 25-30 percent in the coming days.”

Some pressure is already showing in the numbers.

Pakistan’s fish and crustacean exports fell 14.3 percent to $59.6 million in July-August, according to State Bank of Pakistan data.

Shankar Talreja, director of research at Topline Securities Ltd., said higher energy and shipping costs since the Iran war began were weighing on the sector.

“The impact of this war is actually visible, oil prices are actually visible, in the first two months of fiscal year 2027 where the seafood exports have actually come down,” he said.

“This clearly signals that there are some pressures with regards to the overall energy prices on the seafood exports.”

The government says it is trying to cushion the blow for small-scale fishermen.

Mansoor Ali Wassan, director general of Pakistan’s Marine Fisheries Department, said the federal government had asked Sindh and Balochistan, Pakistan’s two coastal provinces, to provide support.

“In terms of cost, people have been affected by the increase in diesel prices,” he told Arab News.

“They incentivized one boat for Rs100,000 ($361) per month,” he added.

Broad fisheries subsidies are discouraged under World Trade Organization rules, Wassan said, but the current circumstances had prompted government support.

“Since these are extraordinary circumstances, the government has incentivized them for subsistence,” he said.

Wassan also said higher international seafood prices could help absorb some of the increase in costs, with better prices flowing back through the industry.

For Hameed, however, the test is more basic: whether there is enough money to justify untying the boats.

“Only then will this boat run,” he said. “Otherwise, millions of people will be in pain.”