Arabian Travel Market opens in Dubai on September 14 after two postponements, and it arrives as the region’s tourism sector emerges from a test few industry forecasts anticipated.

The war that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 disrupted the aviation network that connects the Gulf to the world. Months later, the recovery is visible, but the disruption exposed how much tourism growth depends on the movement of aircraft and passengers through a relatively concentrated network of regional hubs.

Dubai entered 2026 from a position of strength. Dubai International Airport handled 95.2 million passengers in 2025, and the city received 19.6 million international visitors. In February, the airport was forecasting another record year, with 99.5 million passengers.

The war changed that trajectory quickly.

In the first half of 2026, Dubai International handled 31.5 million passengers, down 31.3 percent from the same period a year earlier. Aircraft movements fell 32.1 percent. The closure and restriction of airspace across the region forced widespread cancelations, rescheduling and rerouting.

The impact extended well beyond one airport. Flight volumes at the region’s major carriers fell sharply in March. By March 23, Emirates was operating at around 84 percent of its pre-conflict level, Etihad Airways and Air Arabia at around 60 percent, and Qatar Airways and flydubai at around 51 percent, according to Flightradar24 data cited by Reuters.

Those numbers are a useful measure of what the tourism sector absorbed. The constraint was not demand but the ability to reach the destination. As capacity returned, travelers followed: monthly traffic at Dubai International climbed from 3.5 million passengers in April to 5 million in June.

By August, Emirates had restored 93 percent of its flight capacity and about 98 percent of its network, according to deputy president Adnan Kazim. Hotels have recovered more slowly. Accor said its activity in the UAE fell nearly 80 percent in April and was still down about 40 percent in June, though it reported a marked improvement as the quarter ended.

Recovery, however, remains exposed to events outside the tourism industry.

On August 31, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency extended its conflict-zone bulletin for the Gulf through September 30, citing Iranian efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz, repeated attacks on commercial shipping and related US military action. It advises airlines not to fly over the waters of the Gulf except to arrive at or depart from airports in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE, and to exercise caution over land. Separate EASA bulletins cover Iranian, Iraqi and Lebanese airspace.

That is the context in which ATM 2026 arrives.

The sector now has a clearer picture of what resilience requires. Airlines need alternative routing and contingency plans. Airports need the capacity to absorb sudden changes. Hotels need flexible booking and service models that can adapt when arrival patterns shift. And governments, airlines, airports and hospitality operators need to share information quickly when conditions change.

Connectivity, in other words, has to be treated as a system rather than the business of any single industry.

Technology will be part of that system, and one possible template is Dubai’s own government AI framework. In April, Digital Dubai introduced an AI Integration Matrix Framework to move government AI projects away from standalone applications and toward connected systems. The framework puts data quality, governance, system integration and infrastructure at the center of AI adoption.

A traveler to Dubai does not experience aviation, hotels, transport, attractions and digital services as separate industries. They experience one journey.

-Sara Danial



Although it was designed for government entities, the principle carries over to tourism. AI can support demand forecasting, route planning, visitor services, hotel pricing and personalized itineraries, but its greater value may lie in how these systems communicate with one another.

A traveler to Dubai does not experience aviation, hotels, transport, attractions and digital services as separate industries. They experience one journey.

The Gulf has already invested heavily in the physical infrastructure tourism growth requires. The next phase will depend on how well that infrastructure, technology, policy and hospitality capacity work together when conditions turn difficult.

The February shock showed the cost of depending on uninterrupted connectivity. The recovery since then sends a different signal. Major Gulf carriers rebuilt their schedules despite the disruption, and Dubai’s visitor economy has begun moving back toward growth.

ATM 2026 opens with that recovery still incomplete. The industry has fresh evidence of what happens when connectivity is disrupted at scale, and it can now discuss resilience with real numbers behind it.

For the Gulf’s tourism economy, the next decade will depend on building a travel system that keeps functioning when the conditions around it change. The flare-up behind EASA’s latest extension is a reminder that the next test may come sooner than the industry would like.

For the Gulf’s tourism economy, the next decade will depend on building a travel system that keeps functioning when the conditions around it change. EASA’s latest extension is a reminder that the next test may come sooner than the industry would like.

Sara Danial is an independent writer from Karachi.