ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s consumer prices are expected to rise at their fastest monthly pace in five months in September as fuel and electricity costs increase amid the US-Iran war, brokerage Topline Securities said in a report on Friday.

The conflict, which began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran in February, has disrupted regional oil shipments and pushed up energy prices. Pakistan imports much of its fuel, leaving households and businesses exposed to higher international costs.

Topline forecasts a 1.3 percent rise in prices from August. It expects annual inflation to ease to 10.25–10.75 percent from August’s official reading of 11.15 percent. That would mean prices are still climbing this month, even though the increase compared with a year earlier has slowed.

“On a MoM basis, inflation is projected at 1.30 percent, primarily driven by a 6.5 percent MoM growth in fuel prices and 1.78 percent increase in the Housing, Water, Electricity & Gas segment,” Topline said, using “MoM” to mean month on month.

The brokerage estimated that electricity prices alone rose 9.58 percent from August, reflecting higher charges passed on through power bills. It forecast a smaller, 0.81 percent monthly increase in food prices, with more expensive onions and fresh vegetables partly offset by cheaper tomatoes and eggs.

Topline also raised its inflation forecast for the fiscal year ending June 2027. It now expects inflation to average above 8.5 percent, compared with its earlier estimate of 8.0–8.5 percent, if oil remains between $90 and $100 a barrel.

The outlook adds to the challenge facing Pakistan’s central bank, which held its key interest rate at 11.5 percent on Sept. 14. The bank is seeking to bring inflation toward its medium-term target of 5–7 percent while supporting an economy recovering from a balance-of-payments crisis.

Topline’s figures are forecasts. Pakistan’s statistics agency has yet to release its official September inflation reading.