LAGOS: Nigeria could leap-frog South Africa to become Africa’s biggest economy, when the results of a new way of calculating national output are announced.
Government statisticians will unveil the new figures on Sunday, with widespread expectations that their recalculations will catapult the continent’s most populous nation into the top spot.
The figures, which will include new and fast-developing sectors such as telecoms and the local film industry, Nollywood, should give foreign investors a better picture of the country’s economy.
Some predictions say the revision could see the size of Nigeria’s economy increase by as much as 60 percent, taking it from $264 billion past South Africa’s $384 billion.
But analysts cautioned against viewing the new figures as a sign of development, noting that South Africa was still way ahead in terms of GDP per capita, infrastructure and governance.
Although pockets of vast wealth exist, the last available World Bank figures from 2010 indicated that a staggering 84.5 percent of Nigeria’s 170 million people lived on less than $2 a day.
Key services such as electricity and water provision remain notoriously poor.
“Nothing will really change in real time. It is not as if everyone is going to have twice as much salary,” Chuba Ezekwesili, an analyst with the Nigeria Economic Summit group, said.
“It (the rebasing) is really more cosmetic in nature. But, we do think it will increase investment opportunity in Nigeria.”
Dawie Roodt, chief economist at the South Africa-based Efficient Group, added: “In term of infrastructure and strong monitoring systems, South Africa is still a giant, miles ahead of Nigeria.”
UN statisticians recommend that countries rebase their gross domestic product calculations every five years to reflect changes in the structure of production and consumption.
But Nigeria has not recalculated GDP since 1990.
Africa’s leading crude producer has enjoyed high rates of growth, notwithstanding widespread corruption, poor governance, rampant oil theft and a raging Islamist insurgency in the north.
The annual growth rate averaged 6.8 percent from 2005 to 2013 and the economy is projected to grow this year at a rate of 7.4 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund.
That compares to a little over five percent between 2005 and 2008-9 in South Africa, which has struggled to go beyond 3.5 percent since.
Figures for the telecoms and film sectors are likely to be seized upon as an indication of how much Nigeria’s economy has changed since the last calculation of GDP was carried out.
Nigeria poised to become Africa’s biggest economy
Nigeria poised to become Africa’s biggest economy
Lucid’s move into Alkhobar marks a new phase in Saudi Arabia’s electric transition
ALKHOBAR: Lucid opened its first showroom in Alkhobar on Dec. 5, completing its presence across Saudi Arabia’s three largest regions and underscoring the rapid progress of the Kingdom’s electric-mobility push under Vision 2030.
The new Eastern Province location targets one of the nation’s highest-spending markets and reflects the deepening US-Saudi partnership behind Lucid in manufacturing, research and development, and talent.
For the EV maker, the move reflects pure market demand, according to interim CEO Marc Winterhoff.
“We didn’t have any coverage of the eastern region. It’s the 3rd largest market in KSA, and therefore it’s important for us to be here as well, closer to our customers,” he said.
Saudi Arabia has become one of Lucid’s most critical markets globally, not only as a buyer, but as a manufacturing base and a long-term strategic partner.
Winterhoff said the company is “super important in all of those categories,” highlighting how the Public Investment Fund’s backing enabled Lucid to grow jobs in the US while establishing its first international facility in the Kingdom.
“It’s widely known that we are majority funded by PIF, meaning the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which enabled us to build actually a lot of jobs in the US. Over 90 percent of our jobs … are in the US,” he said.
At the same time, Lucid is expanding its assembly plant in King Abdullah Economic City and preparing to hire “thousands of people” as it ramps up production by the end of next year.
Alignment with Vision 2030, particularly the shift toward sustainability and the creation of entirely new industries, is becoming a defining pillar of Lucid’s strategy in the Kingdom. “Our vision is very much aligned with Vision 2030,” Winterhoff said.
He pointed to the emergence of a Saudi automotive cluster for the first time, with Lucid among the first manufacturers and others now entering the market. “There was no automotive industry before … and yeah, that wouldn’t be possible without the support.”
Regionally, Lucid Middle East President Faisal Sultan said the Gulf is entering a new phase of EV adoption driven by consumer readiness and government action.
“The whole country is going through a transformation right now. There is a renewed focus on sustainability and diversification to non-oil GDP,” he said.
While global supply chain issues briefly slowed EV momentum, demand in Saudi Arabia is now growing faster than in several other GCC countries.
Sultan said the Alkhobar showroom will play a direct role in accelerating adoption by exposing more customers to the vehicles.
“Once the customer is inside the car and sees a beautiful car that has amazing performance attributes, then the conversion is a sure deal,” he said.
Market behavior also shaped the decision to expand east. Many Eastern Province customers had been traveling to Riyadh to buy vehicles, a barrier Lucid sought to address. “It is a little bit of an inconvenience … so we really needed to be here,” Sultan explained.
The location’s economic weight also played a role. “There’s a lot of buying power here, and Lucid vehicles are a highly technological luxury vehicle. So it is the right place for Lucid to be.”
On charging, Lucid is working on a two-track approach: building infrastructure and educating customers. The company is pushing back against common assumptions around range anxiety by highlighting its vehicles’ capabilities.
“We are the longest-range vehicle in the world — 835 (km) to 838 km on a single charge,” Sultan said. He added that many drivers can travel from Alkhobar to Riyadh and might even go back on one charge.
Lucid now provides a free home charger and free installation with every purchase, ensuring most customers rarely run low on battery in daily use.
The company is also expanding public charging through partnerships with hotels and offices. “We have about 50 of them across the country, and anybody can use it,” he said.
The localization push, a major pillar of Vision 2030, is another area where Lucid is scaling quickly. “We are 70-plus percent Saudized. That is an amazing feat because we are a technological company,” Sultan said.
The firm is also investing in a new R&D center in Riyadh, training Saudi engineers in the US through Human Resources Development Fund’s programs, and building a talent pipeline with institutions including KAUST, King Abdullah Economic City’s training academy NAVA, and technical universities.
Sultan said this effort is essential as the plant transitions next year from assembly to a complete build-unit factory with a planned annual capacity of 150,000 vehicles.
“You’re gonna need a large workforce,” he said. “This is all in preparation to localize the workforce and having the right skills available.”
With the Eastern Province now covered, Lucid’s footprint matches the Kingdom’s three economic engines: Riyadh, Jeddah, and Alkhobar, positioning the company at the center of Saudi Arabia’s EV transition.
And as both executives made clear, the Kingdom is not just a sales market for Lucid, but a core part of its global future.
