LAGOS: Nigeria could leap-frog South Africa to become Africa’s biggest economy, when the results of a new way of calculating national output are announced.
Government statisticians will unveil the new figures on Sunday, with widespread expectations that their recalculations will catapult the continent’s most populous nation into the top spot.
The figures, which will include new and fast-developing sectors such as telecoms and the local film industry, Nollywood, should give foreign investors a better picture of the country’s economy.
Some predictions say the revision could see the size of Nigeria’s economy increase by as much as 60 percent, taking it from $264 billion past South Africa’s $384 billion.
But analysts cautioned against viewing the new figures as a sign of development, noting that South Africa was still way ahead in terms of GDP per capita, infrastructure and governance.
Although pockets of vast wealth exist, the last available World Bank figures from 2010 indicated that a staggering 84.5 percent of Nigeria’s 170 million people lived on less than $2 a day.
Key services such as electricity and water provision remain notoriously poor.
“Nothing will really change in real time. It is not as if everyone is going to have twice as much salary,” Chuba Ezekwesili, an analyst with the Nigeria Economic Summit group, said.
“It (the rebasing) is really more cosmetic in nature. But, we do think it will increase investment opportunity in Nigeria.”
Dawie Roodt, chief economist at the South Africa-based Efficient Group, added: “In term of infrastructure and strong monitoring systems, South Africa is still a giant, miles ahead of Nigeria.”
UN statisticians recommend that countries rebase their gross domestic product calculations every five years to reflect changes in the structure of production and consumption.
But Nigeria has not recalculated GDP since 1990.
Africa’s leading crude producer has enjoyed high rates of growth, notwithstanding widespread corruption, poor governance, rampant oil theft and a raging Islamist insurgency in the north.
The annual growth rate averaged 6.8 percent from 2005 to 2013 and the economy is projected to grow this year at a rate of 7.4 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund.
That compares to a little over five percent between 2005 and 2008-9 in South Africa, which has struggled to go beyond 3.5 percent since.
Figures for the telecoms and film sectors are likely to be seized upon as an indication of how much Nigeria’s economy has changed since the last calculation of GDP was carried out.
Nigeria poised to become Africa’s biggest economy
Nigeria poised to become Africa’s biggest economy
Silver crosses $77 mark while gold, platinum stretch record highs
- Spot silver touched an all-time high of $77.40 earlier today, marking a 167% year-to-date surge driven by supply deficits
- Spot platinum rose 9.8% to $2,437.72 per ounce, while palladium surged 14 percent to $1,927.81, its highest level in over 3 years
Silver breached the $77 mark for the first time on Friday, while gold and platinum hit record highs, buoyed by expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical tensions that fueled safe-haven demand.
Spot silver jumped 7.5% to $77.30 per ounce, as of 1:53 p.m. ET (1853 GMT), after touching an all-time high of $77.40 earlier today, marking a 167% year-to-date surge driven by supply deficits, its designation as a US critical mineral, and strong investment inflows.
Spot gold was up 1.2% at $4,531.41 per ounce, after hitting a record $4,549.71 earlier. US gold futures for February delivery settled 1.1% higher at $4,552.70.
“Expectations for further Fed easing in 2026, a weak dollar and heightened geopolitical tensions are driving volatility in thin markets. While there is some risk of profit-taking before the year-end, the trend remains strong,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.
Markets are anticipating two rate cuts in 2026, with the first likely around mid-year amid speculation that US President Donald Trump could name a dovish Fed chair, reinforcing expectations for a more accommodative monetary stance.
The US dollar index was on track for a weekly decline, enhancing the appeal of dollar-priced gold for overseas buyers.
On the geopolitical front, the US carried out airstrikes against Daesh militants in northwest Nigeria, Trump said on Thursday.
“$80 in silver is within reach by year-end. For gold, the next objective is $4,686.61, with $5,000 likely in the first half of next year,” Grant added.
Gold remains poised for its strongest annual gain since 1979, underpinned by Fed policy easing, central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and ongoing de-dollarization trends.
On the physical demand side, gold discounts in India widened to their highest in more than six months this week as a relentless price rally curbed retail buying, while discounts in China narrowed sharply from last week’s five-year highs.
Elsewhere, spot platinum rose 9.8% to $2,437.72 per ounce, having earlier hit a record high of $2,454.12 while palladium surged 14% to $1,927.81, its highest level in more than three years.
All precious metals logged weekly gains, with platinum recording its strongest weekly rise on record.
