I am fascinated by what is happening in Belgium. National elections were held on June 10 at which the outgoing prime minister, Guy Verhofstadt, and his Flemish Liberal Group (VLD) were firmly trounced. The new prime minister should be Yves Leterme, leader of the Flemish Christian Democrats, but Leterme has been unable to negotiate a deal to form a coalition government. And so Verhofstadt is back with his Cabinet running a caretaker government until a solution to this political impasse can be found.

When I lived in Belgium many years ago I was taken on a tour of Brussels by a Belgian diplomat. She pointed out the history of the country and explained to me how two different and distinct people cohabited happily under one banner. But where was the royal family from I asked, were they Flemish or Walloon? She dodged the question skillfully every time I asked it. The answer, I concluded, was that the royal family was Belgian whilst the rest of the country was either Flemish or Walloon. And indeed it is the royal family who is credited with keeping the country together, until now.

The issue is a kind of North and South with a creamy Belgian flavor. The North, Dutch-speaking Flanders, is more dynamic and accounts for the majority of the population. The South, French-speaking Wallonia, was once an industrial powerhouse but is now impoverished and plagued by high unemployment. The more prosperous Flemish half is becoming increasingly dissatisfied with subsidizing the poorer Walloon half of the country. It has got so bad that the whispers are now of divorce, Czechoslovakian-style. A recent poll found support for secession on both sides of the divide: 43 percent in Flanders and 20 percent in Wallonia. Is the unthinkable about to happen? Is Belgium going to cease to exist, as we currently know it? Are we looking at a two-state solution or will democracy prevail?

First, there is the issue of Brussels. It is a separate administrative region to Flanders and Wallonia, yet is the capital of Flanders, by which it is surrounded. It is largely French-speaking and is the only region where both Dutch and French are official languages. The rest of the country was divided in 1962 by an official language frontier. It runs south of Brussels — splitting Belgium into two, essentially institutionalizing the separation of the country into two distinct cultural groups who literally cannot speak to each other. The two communities are so separate that less than one percent of marriages take place between them. Language rules are strict and far-reaching essentially meaning that unless you are a fluent Dutch-speaker you will have difficulty in obtaining housing, employment or getting anything done administratively in Flanders, and vice-versa in Wallonia.

Brussels is of course also the capital of Belgium and the de facto capital of the European Union, as well as hosting the NATO headquarters. It is the capital city par excellence. It could take on a special status, being neither part of one state or the other, but run independently.

Then, of course, there is the royal family, but since the queen of England is head of more than one state, why can’t Albert II do the same?

In reality, secession is unlikely. No one is seriously calling for it, at least not yet. Flanders might survive and even prosper as an independent state but Wallonia would struggle. What is on the table is devolution with more power being handed over to the regions. Flanders and Wallonia would become neighbors rather than bedfellows, but still live under the same banner. Flanders would have more control over taxation and social benefits thus enabling it to shift the burden of taxation — it currently estimates that it pays some 8 billion euros in social security payments to Wallonia. It would also be free to develop its own cultural identity.

Clearly the impetus for change comes from the Flemish who have campaigned for decades for more autonomy. They also have much more to gain. Whatever happens, the French-speaking half of the country, who once represented the Belgian elite, will have to come to terms with being outmaneuvered by their Dutch-speaking co-citizens. But what a shame that after 175 years of living together, the two communities should find themselves more divided than united. In Belgium at least, cohabitation does not a couple make.