Gulf security is going local. Pakistan is already inside it.

Two developments last week indicate that the security situation in and around the Gulf region is evolving, and that both deserve close attention in Islamabad. Kuwait ratified a defense cooperation agreement with Pakistan, signed in Kuwait City in June 2023, through a decree-law published in the official gazette on July 26. It is a standard defense cooperation agreement, but the timing of its ratification is significant. Second, fourteen states agreed in Riyadh to establish a Maritime Defense Alliance, to be headquartered in the Kingdom. The coalition aims to protect commercial shipping, trade and oil carrying vessels through the chokepoints of the Gulf of Aden and Bab Al-Mandab in the Red Sea. It is a response to the recent threat of a naval embargo by the Houthi militia in Yemen. Pakistan is among the states that signed up to it. 

Kuwait has reported that Iranian projectiles struck its international airport, a water desalination facility and electricity generating units, though Iran initially denied the allegation. A foreign military base and Kuwaiti air defenses limited the damage by engaging the projectiles in the air, but they did not prevent it. It also became clear that foreign military bases in GCC countries had themselves become magnets for Iranian fire. For all their sophisticated weaponry, those bases performed below expectations, to the exasperation of local populations. The situation made the case for greater self-reliance through regional defense cooperation. The ratification of the 2023 agreement now appears to be a step in that direction. 

Those foreign bases did serve a purpose for many years. They created a sense of security for the GCC countries in a volatile region, and this helped ensure the safe flow of energy resources, the stability of energy prices and the impressive economic development of the Gulf. A number of Asian countries, Pakistan among them, benefited from that prosperity through the remittances sent home by their workers. All said and done, however, a foreign military presence in any country, however beneficial, has its downside. It can restrict foreign policy options and it may become unpopular with the local population. 

Threat perceptions in the Gulf have changed over time. Before the 1979 revolution, Israel was seen as the major threat, though a distant one, as missile warfare had not yet come to the region. In 1991, Iraq fired missiles at Gulf states, and Iraq was seen as a threat, albeit briefly. The arrival of foreign military bases created a balance of power for the years that followed. When two GCC member states signed the Abraham Accords, Iran was seen by them as the principal threat. Saudi Arabia and Qatar, however, took steps to mend fences with Tehran as an important neighbor. 

A foreign military presence in any country, however beneficial, has its downside. It can restrict foreign policy options and may become unpopular with the local population.

Javid Hafeez

Iran’s use of proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen has also worried the Gulf Arab states. Of these, the Houthi militia in Yemen has not only disturbed the internal stability of its own country but now threatens oil shipments through the Red Sea. The proposed coalition, to be based in Saudi Arabia, is composed largely of Asian and African states. Their naval assets will be tasked with ensuring the safety of shipping in the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea. Until now this work has been carried out by the Bahrain based Combined Maritime Forces, in which European countries participated significantly. The region, it would appear, is moving toward local solutions for its security problems. 

Pakistan’s commitment to Gulf security, by contrast, has endured through thick and thin. The developed world’s interest in this part of the world rests mainly on its hydrocarbon needs. For Pakistan the ties are material and, more importantly, spiritual. Cultural commonalities and geographical proximity add a further dimension to a mutually beneficial relationship. The level of trust between Pakistan and the GCC states has been exemplary. Pakistan also enjoys friendly relations with Iran, which could make it a useful interlocutor in the current imbroglio. 

Pakistan’s armed forces performed outstandingly in the four-day clashes with India last year, and that raised the country’s security profile globally. Pakistani and Gulf forces have a long history of joint training and exercises. The mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, signed last September, treats an attack on one partner as an attack on the other. Pakistan’s long experience with the Bahrain based Combined Maritime Forces has given its navy vital experience of regional maritime security. It is no surprise, then, that it is among the states that have signed up to the new Riyadh based coalition. 

Gulf leaderships take foreign policy decisions after collegial consultation, and sudden shifts are therefore rare. The security arrangements with the United States will not change quickly. Deeper GCC security cooperation with regional countries, including Pakistan, Turkiye and Egypt, is nonetheless likely to gain traction. This is necessary to ensure peace and stability in a volatile region so important to the international economy. Ideally Iran should be part of the Gulf security architecture, but that will have to wait until mutual confidence is rebuilt. 

Pakistan-Saudi cooperation is, and will remain, the linchpin of a sound regional security architecture. The two countries’ security concerns have much in common, and both aim at strengthening regional stability for the good of their people. Pakistan has responded promptly to Gulf security concerns and should continue to do so through regular consultation. 

-Javed Hafeez is a former Pakistani diplomat with much experience of the Middle East. He writes weekly columns in Pakistani and Gulf newspapers and appears regularly on satellite TV channels as a defense and political analyst. X: @JavedHafiz8