RIYADH: Morocco’s economy is expected to grow 4.8 percent in 2026, supported mainly by an exceptional rebound in agricultural activity, before slowing to 3 percent in 2027 on the assumption of an average cereal harvest, according to the Haut-Commissariat au Plan’s July 2026 exploratory economic budget.
The outlook comes as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East at the start of 2026 and disruption to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz weigh on the global economy, pushing up commodity prices and disrupting international supply chains.
Global economic activity is expected to slow to around 3 percent in 2026, from 3.5 percent in 2025, before recording a modest recovery to 3.4 percent in 2027. The slowdown in global trade is also expected to weigh on foreign demand directed toward Morocco, which is projected to decline from 4.9 percent in 2025 to 2.6 percent in 2026, before improving to 2.9 percent in 2027.
“Domestic demand will continue to support economic growth, as a result of the recovery in final consumption and the strength of investment, despite external volatility,” the official report said.
That resilience is expected to be tested by weaker trade conditions. Foreign exchange is projected to come under pressure from lower external demand directed toward Morocco and higher commodity prices, which would widen the trade deficit in 2026.
Regional comparison
The outlook places Morocco among the stronger-performing economies in North Africa. The International Monetary Fund projects Morocco’s real gross domestic product growth at 4.9 percent in 2026, broadly in line with the domestic forecast and supported by resilient domestic drivers, infrastructure investment and normalized agricultural production.
The IMF’s 2026 projections point to a more uneven regional picture, with Tunisia expected to grow 2.1 percent and Egypt 4.6 percent.
The comparison highlights Morocco’s relatively stronger near-term growth profile, although all three economies remain exposed to higher energy and food prices, weaker external demand and regional uncertainty.
Fiscal outlook
On public finances, Morocco’s budget deficit is expected to narrow slightly from 3.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2025 to 3.4 percent in 2026, before declining further to 3.2 percent in 2027.
The improvement is expected to be supported by continued revenue momentum. Against this backdrop, debt ratios are expected to maintain the downward trajectory that began in 2023.
