ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal on Tuesday proposed changes to the constitutional formula used to distribute federal revenues among provinces, arguing that regions that successfully slow population growth should receive greater financial incentives.
The remarks came at the launch of Pakistan’s National and Provincial Population Projections 2023–2050 report, which estimates the country’s population could rise from 241.5 million in 2023 to between 371.9 million and 389.9 million by 2050, depending on fertility trends.
Under Pakistan’s National Finance Commission (NFC) Award, which determines how federal tax revenues are shared between the center and provinces, around 82 percent of allocations are currently tied to population size.
“Reforms are needed in the system to encourage provinces to adopt responsible population management policies,” Iqbal said at the ceremony, according to a statement issued by the planning ministry.
He said provinces demonstrating measurable improvements in population stabilization should receive “additional incentives and recognition.”
Iqbal warned that if current growth trends continued, Pakistan’s population could reach between 370 million and 400 million by 2050, placing mounting pressure on health care, education, employment, water, food and other public services.
The newly launched projections report says Pakistan’s population is expected to increase to 389.9 million by 2050 under a “slow fertility decline” scenario and to 371.9 million under a “rapid fertility decline” scenario.
The report projects the country’s working-age population could rise from 135.2 million in 2023 to 255.4 million by 2050, potentially creating a demographic dividend if supported by investments in education, health and employment.
At the same time, it warns that the population below 18 years of age could grow from 117.9 million to 139.7 million during the same period, increasing pressure on social services.
Iqbal described population growth as a “national emergency” and said nearly 40 percent of children in Pakistan suffered from malnutrition and stunted growth because many families lacked the resources to provide adequate care.
“Population balance is not a religious debate but a matter of national survival, human development, and the wellbeing of future generations,” he said.
The minister also said the new projections would serve as the demographic foundation for Pakistan’s Vision 2035 framework, future five-year development plans and upcoming deliberations on the NFC Award.
The report, prepared by the National Institute of Population Studies with support from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), says Pakistan’s rapid population growth continues to be driven largely by high fertility rates and demographic momentum.
