DUBAI: Carbon credits remain one of the most contested tools in global climate policy. Supporters view them as a mechanism to unlock climate finance, while critics point to weak measurement standards, inflated claims and projects that fall short of delivering meaningful impact.

Across the Middle East, governments are ramping up investment in urban greening, nature-based solutions and carbon markets — intensifying scrutiny over how environmental benefits are calculated and verified.

A growing cohort of climate-tech firms argues that the credibility gap lies less in the concept of carbon credits and more in how environmental performance is measured. Among them is GrowCarbon, a Dubai-based company developing digital systems to monitor trees and convert their climate impact into tradable carbon credits.

Hamzeh Abueqap, GrowCarbon founder and chief executive, said the idea behind the platform grew out of his academic work in financial economics and climate finance. It was also shaped by an early realization that trees provide measurable services to cities that are rarely reflected in financial systems.

Using satellite imagery and species-level data, the company creates digital replicas of individual trees, enabling their growth and environmental contribution to be modeled without installing ground sensors.

“We build digital twins of carbon infrastructure,” he said, arguing that this allows the carbon absorbed by trees to be quantified and turned into verifiable credits.

GrowCarbon is currently working on projects in the UAE, Jordan and Lebanon, including real estate developments in Dubai and Sharjah. Developers use its data to support claims related to air quality, shading and livability in forest-led communities.

“Our platform currently has more than 10 million trees, and you can see how each one is growing over time and how it contributes to air quality, carbon absorption, heat stress and water,” Abueqap told Arab News.

The platform estimates growth and carbon uptake at the level of individual trees, updating projections continuously. This contrasts with traditional academic approaches, which often rely on sampling methods across larger land areas.

“Previously in academia, carbon sequestration has been measured on a hectare basis, where one small sample is used to represent a much larger area,” said Abueqap.

He argues that verification gaps have undermined confidence in carbon markets and discouraged serious climate investment.

“A lot of what we are doing is we’re trying to address the current fraud that goes on in this market,” he said, adding that poorly defined methodologies have allowed some projects to make claims that cannot be substantiated on the ground.

GrowCarbon’s system is designed to increase transparency by mapping where trees are located, tracking how they grow and confirming their continued existence — reducing the risk of credits being issued for projects that exist largely on paper.

“That’s why we spent the past four years building and refining the algorithm,” added Abueqap.
“We achieved 97 percent accuracy on our models to address this fraud and make sure climate finance isn’t overlooked.”

To convert environmental data into tradable credits, however, projects must align with recognized global standards. GrowCarbon works with Verra, a widely used international carbon registry, to validate its methodology and issue credits based on measured sequestration.

Revenue from the credits is structured to flow directly to landowners and project partners.

“Those credits go directly to the person who planted the tree or the person who owns the land,” Abueqap said, adding that the company takes only a small fee for facilitating the process.

The move toward digital monitoring reflects a broader shift in voluntary carbon markets, where trust increasingly depends on frequent, transparent verification rather than occasional field surveys. Similar satellite- and remote-sensing-based systems are emerging globally, underscoring how monitoring, reporting and verification technologies are becoming central to market integrity.

In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has become a key testing ground for large-scale greening and carbon market initiatives. The Kingdom’s agenda includes extensive tree-planting programs tied to broader environmental and urban development goals.

When launching the Saudi Green Initiative in 2021, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said the program would focus on expanding vegetation cover, cutting carbon emissions, tackling pollution and land degradation, and protecting marine ecosystems — with a long-term ambition to plant 10 billion trees nationwide.

Saudi Arabia has also invested in regional carbon market infrastructure. After a major auction of voluntary carbon credits, Riham ElGizy, former chief executive of the Regional Voluntary Carbon Market Co., backed by the Public Investment Fund and Tadawul Group, emphasized the role of voluntary markets in directing finance toward climate action.

“We need to use every tool at our disposal to tackle the devastating impacts climate change is already having. This auction demonstrates the role voluntary carbon markets can play in driving funding where it is most needed,” she commented.

More recently, ElGizy said a long-term agreement linked to Saudi Arabia’s carbon market platform aimed to facilitate the delivery of more than 30 million tonnes of carbon credits by 2030, describing it as “a key milestone in the Kingdom’s journey to drive growth in global voluntary carbon markets.”

She has also stressed the urgency of accelerating climate finance, warning that “to accelerate global decarbonization we must unlock financial flows to critical climate projects on an enormous scale.”

In arid environments — where heat, dust and water scarcity can limit tree survival — continuous monitoring may help bridge the gap between greening ambitions and financial mechanisms. Real-time data can guide species selection, maintenance strategies and investment decisions, while providing the evidence needed to support climate claims.

Developers, utilities and municipalities could also use such data to identify where trees deliver the greatest returns in heat mitigation and air quality improvements.

“Beyond urban forestry, GrowCarbon can support Saudi Arabia’s broader investment in nature-based solutions by providing continuous MRV for distributed ecosystems,” said Abueqap.

For example, Aramco has reported planting more than 30 million mangroves in the Eastern Province, with a target of 300 million by 2035, to protect coastlines and sequester carbon. Digital monitoring could help ensure such efforts are consistently measured and aligned with international standards.

The same technologies may also support Saudi Arabia’s expanding role in carbon trading.

“Saudi Arabia’s Regional Voluntary Carbon Market Co., backed by PIF and Tadawul, is positioning the Kingdom as a centre for high-integrity carbon trading,” Abueqap said.

Despite growing momentum, voluntary carbon markets worldwide continue to face concerns over project quality, reliable monitoring and credible verification. Skepticism is unlikely to disappear quickly as scrutiny intensifies.

Yet as Saudi Arabia and its neighbors accelerate investment in nature-based solutions and climate-linked finance, demand for transparent and accountable measurement systems is set to increase.

“All of the trees on the planet need to be registered under one system so we can finally understand how much carbon sequestration is actually happening. There are around 3 trillion trees in the world, and our goal is to register as many of them as possible,” Abueqap said.

Whether digital monitoring can restore trust in carbon credits — in the Middle East and beyond — may depend on its ability to deliver the transparency the market has long lacked.