Saudi Vision 2030 fuels rapid rise of private credit market: S&P

Saudi Arabia's vast funding requirements and the accelerated growth of small and midsize enterprises are creating a significant opening for private capital financing. Shutterstock
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Updated 14 December 2025
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Saudi Vision 2030 fuels rapid rise of private credit market: S&P

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s private credit market is set to expand rapidly as the Kingdom seeks to bridge the funding gap created by the Vision 2030 transformation agenda, according to S&P Global Ratings. 

In a new report, the agency said the country’s vast funding requirements and the accelerated growth of small and midsize enterprises are creating a significant opening for private capital financing. But it warned that structural challenges could weigh on the asset class’s development. 

This comes as Saudi Arabia’s public and private sector debt, including bank lending, bond and sukuk issuances, and private capital financing, grew at a compound annual rate of 12 percent from 2021 to 2024. Nonbank lending has also become an increasingly relevant component, with credit instruments distributed to a relatively narrow investor base. 

“Saudi Vision 2030’s economic and social diversification targets require substantial amounts of financing. We believe that this offers private capital financing a significant growth opportunity,” said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Zeina Nasreddine. 

The agency noted that financing demand is set to remain elevated, with Saudi Arabia’s funding needs remaining high in recent years and continuing to fuel strong lending growth. It added that slower deposit growth is prompting banks to turn increasingly to alternative funding channels. 

"Given the country's large financing needs, private capital financing, in collaboration with banks, can offer loans to the domestic market. Over time, this would allow banks to mitigate exposure to single-name and sector concentration risks and free up capital," added Nasreddine. 

Despite being a relatively new and hard-to-measure asset class, private credit has grown rapidly, yet still accounted for only 2 percent of the Kingdom’s total debt stock in 2024, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. 

Even so, the market has expanded tenfold since 2020, reaching $3.7 billion last year, the report stated. Sectors accessing this financing between 2020 and August 2025 range from established industries such as petrochemicals and airlines to fast-growing segments including digital payment services. 

Borrowers include government-related entities, large private conglomerates, and smaller businesses such as travel agencies and food retailers. The investor base is similarly diverse, comprising Asian investors, GREs, a major US bank, and Saudi investment funds committed to private debt. 

Saudi banks, amid weakening deposit growth, are also exploring alternative funding avenues. Private capital can work alongside lenders to support domestic credit expansion while helping banks diversify exposures and release capital.   

S&P expects micro, small, and midsize entities to be a key growth engine for private credit. The Vision 2030 program aims to increase the SME sector’s contribution to the gross domestic product to 35 percent by 2030, up from 21.9 percent in 2023.  

The agency estimates that SME leverage, measured by dividing MSME loans from banks and nonbanks by the sector’s GDP contribution, rose from 22 percent in 2020 to 28 percent in 2023. “We expect lending to SMEs will increase to meet Vision 2030 targets,” S&P added.  

Despite the promising outlook, the agency highlighted that the private credit asset class is facing inherent challenges. “As an asset class, private credit offers less transparency and liquidity than publicly listed debt,” it said. 

The valuation process adds another layer of complexity; while public debt is priced through secondary markets, private credit managers rely on mark-to-model valuations that can vary significantly from one manager to another, creating uncertainty about the true value of instruments.  

Furthermore, a slowdown in mergers and acquisitions activity, which began during the higher-for-longer interest rate environment, is weighing on private equity general partners seeking to return capital to investors from funds nearing the end of their lifecycle. “The regional market needs more M&A activity and public exits to demonstrate maturity and build investor confidence,” S&P added. 

At this stage, however, the agency noted that broader systemic risks to Saudi Arabia from private credit “remain limited,” given its still-small contribution to overall financing. 


World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience.
Updated 23 January 2026
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World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

  • Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years
  • Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience

DAVOS: Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience, as global leaders gathered in Davos on Friday against a backdrop of trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change.

Speaking on the final day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years.

“We need to define who ‘we’ are in this so-called new world order,” he said, arguing that many emerging economies had been adapting to a more fragmented global system for decades.

Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience. In energy markets, he pointed out that the focus should remain on balancing supply and demand in a way that incentivized investment without harming the global economy.

“Our role in OPEC is to stabilize the market,” he said.

His remarks were echoed by Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, who said that uncertainty had weighed heavily on growth, investment and geopolitical risk, but that reality had proven more resilient.

“The economy has adjusted and continues to move forward,” Alibrahim said.

Alibrahim warned that pragmatism had become scarce, trust increasingly transactional, and collaboration more fragile. “Stability cannot be quickly built or bought,” he said.

Alibrahim called for a shift away from preserving the status quo towards the practical ingredients that made cooperation work, stressing discipline and long-term thinking even when views diverged.

Quoting Saudi Arabia’s founding King Abdulaziz Al-Saud, he added: “Facing challenges requires strength and confidence, there is no virtue in weakness. We cannot sit idle.”

President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde stressed the importance of distinguishing meaningful data from headline noise, saying: “Our duty as central bankers is to separate the signal from the noise. The real numbers are growth numbers not nominal ones.”

Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva echoed Lagarde’s sentiments, saying that the world had entered a more “shock prone” environment shaped by technology and geopolitics.

Director General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that the global trade systems currently in place were remarkably resilient, pointing out that 72 percent of global trade continued despite disruptions.

She urged governments and businesses, however, to avoid overreacting.

Okonjo Iweala said that a return to the old order was unlikely, but trade would remain essential. Georgieva agreed, saying global trade would continue, albeit in a different form.

Georgieva warned that AI would accelerate economic transformation at an unprecedented speed. The IMF expects 60 percent of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or displaced, with entry-level roles and middle-class workers facing the greatest pressure.

Lagarde warned that without cooperation, capital and data flows would suffer, undermining productivity and growth.

Al-Jadaan said that power dynamics had always shaped global relations, but dialogue remained essential. “The fact that thousands of leaders came here says something,” he said. “Some things cannot be done alone.”

In another session titled Geopolitical Risks Outlook for 2026, former US Democratic representative Jane Harman said that because of AI, the world was safer in some ways but worse off in others.

“I think AI can make the world riskier if it gets in the wrong hands and is used without guardrails to kill all of us. But AI also has enormous promise. AI may be a development tool that moves the third world ahead faster than our world, which has pretty messy politics,” she said.

American economist Eswar Prasad said that currently the world was in a “doom loop.”

Prasad said that the global economy was stuck in a negative-feedback loop and economics, domestic politics and geopolitics were only bringing out the worst in each other.

“Technology could lead to shared prosperity but what we are seeing is much more concentration of economic and financial power within and between countries, potentially making it a destabilizing force,” he said.

Prasad predicted that AI and tech development would impact growing economies the most. But he said that there was uncertainty about whether these developments would create job opportunities and growth in developing countries.

Professor of international political economy at the University of New South Wales in Australia, Elizabeth Thurbon, said that China was driving a Green Energy transition in a way that should be modeled by the rest of the world.

“The Chinese government is using the Green Energy Transition to boost energy security and is manufacturing its own energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports,” she explained.

Thurbon said that China was using this transition to boost economic security, social security and geostrategic security. She viewed this as a huge security-enhancing opportunity and every country had the ability to use the energy transition as a national security multiplier. 

“We are seeing an enormous dynamism across emerging market economies driven by China. This boom loop is being driven by enormous investments in green energy. Two-thirds of global investment flowing into renewable energy is driven largely by China,” she said.

Thurbon said that China was taking an interesting approach to building relationships with countries by putting economic engagement on the forefront of what they had to offer.

“China is doing all it can to ensure economic partnership with emerging economies are productive. It’s important to approach alliances as not just political alliances but investment in economy, future and the flourishment of a state,” she said.

The panel criticized global economic treaties and laws, and expressed the need for immediate reforms in economic governing bodies.

“If you are a developing economy, the rules of the WTO, for example, are not helpful for you to develop. A lot of the rules make it difficult to pursue an economic development agenda. These regulations are not allowing the economies to grow,” Thurbon said.

“Serious reform must be made in international trade agreements, economic bodies and rules and guidelines,” she added.

Prasad echoed this sentiment and said there was a need for national and international reform in global economic institutions.

“These institutions are not working very well so we can reconfigure them or rebuild them from scratch. But unfortunately the task of rebuilding falls into the hands of those who are shredding them,” he said.

WEF attendees were invited to join the Global Collaboration and Growth meeting to be held in Saudi Arabia in April 2026 to continue addressing the complex global challenges and engage in dialogue.