SINGAPORE/KARACHI: Pakistan’s annual fuel oil exports hit an all-time high this year and are expected to trend steady to higher next year, as higher domestic taxes deterred purchases while power plants are switching to cleaner alternatives, industry sources said.

The uptick in Pakistan’s fuel oil exports has added to supply in Asia, weighing further on prices in a market that is already well-supplied, traders and analysts said.

Fuel oil exports from Pakistan reached a fresh high this year, shipping data from Kpler and LSEG showed.

Exports so far this year have breached 1.4 million metric tons (about 8.9 million barrels), up over 16 percent from the full-year volume in 2024, the data from Kpler showed, with most of these exports ending up in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. LSEG data showed exports at 1.33 million tons so far in 2025, up from 1.11 million tons last year.

The cargoes were mostly high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) and added mainly to marine fuel supply, while some volumes went to refineries as feedstock, market sources said.

“Pakistan primarily exports HSFO to Asia which have been seeing an excess in supply post-summer season and have depressed cracks in the region,” said Valerie Panopio, vice president for oil commodity markets at Rystad Energy.

Pakistani refiners sold more fuel oil via tenders this year after the government raised taxes for domestic fuel oil consumption, while power generators gravitate toward alternatives such as coal and solar.

The leading Pakistan fuel oil exporter was Pak-Arab Refinery, according to traders, while other exporters included Cnergyico, Attock Refinery, National Refinery and Pakistan Refinery.

Cnergyico, which is the country’s largest oil refiner, has said it aims to boost exports. The company exported about 247,000 tons of fuel oil in fiscal year 2024–25, its vice-chairman Usama Qureshi said.

Qureshi added that he expects at least 50 percent growth this fiscal year, supported by increased use of light-sweet crude that lifted its output of very low sulfur fuel oil.

The company has partnered up with global trading house Vitol to supply more low-sulfur marine fuel from Pakistan ports.

“The increase in fuel oil exports in the past years have helped ensure that refinery runs are not constrained by inventory limits, something that was an issue in the previous years,” said Xin Shuai Huang, oil market analyst at FGE.

Next year, the exports are likely to maintain or climb further, according to Pakistan industry sources.

“The trend in furnace oil exports is only going to increase going forward in 2026,” said Syed Nazir Abbas Zaidi, secretary general of Pakistan’s oil companies advisory council.

“Fuel oil is no longer viable in electricity generation, and no longer profitable to sell in the domestic market, following the last budget,” Zaidi said.

Pakistan turned from a net importer into a net exporter of fuel oil in 2023.