JEDDAH: Economic growth across the Gulf Cooperation Council is set to accelerate to 4.3 percent by 2027, driven by expanding non-oil sectors, following a balanced 1.9 percent rise in gross domestic product in 2024, according to official data.
Non-oil sectors led the 2024 expansion with 4.4 percent growth, reflecting steady progress in economic diversification and the implementation of long-term transformation strategies across the region, data from the GCC Statistical Centre showed.
The World Bank’s June 2025 Gulf Economic Update projected GCC real GDP growth of 3.2 percent in 2025, supported by both oil output at 2.8 percent and non-oil activity at 3.2 percent, with growth expected to average around 4.6 percent in 2026 and 2027.
The report noted that individual countries would benefit from resumed oil production and robust non-oil performance, with Saudi Arabia’s oil output projected to reach 10.4 million barrels per day by 2027.
It added that the UAE’s non-oil sector is expected to expand 4.9 percent in 2025, while Qatar is forecast to record significant gains from its expanding liquefied natural gas capacity. The report also highlighted the growing role of non-oil industries and the GCC’s continued diversification momentum despite global uncertainties.
A recent GCC-Stat report, titled “Economic Performance Outlook 2024 – Enabling Fiscal Sustainability and Enhancing Non-Oil Growth,” said the region achieved a balanced performance in 2024 despite global challenges.
It offered a comprehensive analytical overview of macroeconomic indicators, covering growth, inflation, public finance, debt levels, fiscal sustainability, financial markets, monetary and banking policy, foreign direct investment, trade, and labor market dynamics across the Gulf.
Preliminary GCCS-tat data showed that transport and storage led non-oil growth in 2024 with 6.5 percent, followed by agriculture and fishing at 6.4 percent and accommodation services at 6.3 percent, reflecting rising tourism flows and growing investment in these sectors.
Construction, trade, and financial services expanded between 5 and 5.5 percent, supported by large-scale projects and stronger domestic demand. In contrast, the oil sector contracted by 3.8 percent due to OPEC+ output reduction commitments.
The value added of non-oil activities rose to $1.29 trillion in 2024, up from $1.24 trillion in 2023, underscoring tangible progress in diversification.
Looking ahead, GCC-Stat forecasts non-oil growth to moderate to 3.5 percent in 2025 before accelerating to 5.2 percent by 2027, driven by tourism, logistics, manufacturing, and renewable energy projects. The private sector is expected to play a central role amid ongoing reforms and digital transformation initiatives.
In the first quarter of 2025, GCC economies expanded by 3 percent, with combined GDP reaching $588.1 billion, up from $570.9 billion in the same period last year. Non-oil activities accounted for 73.2 percent of total GDP, up from 70.6 percent at the end of 2024, highlighting the region’s continued progress toward diversification.
Saudi Arabia projects real GDP growth of 4.6 percent in 2026, supported by an estimated 5 percent increase in non-oil activities. The UAE recorded 3.9 percent growth in the first quarter, led by trade, finance, manufacturing, construction, and real estate.
These results reinforce the GCC’s resilient growth trajectory amid global uncertainties and align with IMF forecasts projecting 3.2 percent growth in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026.
