From fraud to foresight: How AI is redefining forensics in Saudi Arabia

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Updated 17 October 2025
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From fraud to foresight: How AI is redefining forensics in Saudi Arabia

  • Proactive risk management is replacing reactive crisis response in Kingdom’s corporate culture

ALKHOBAR: As Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 accelerates, the Kingdom’s rapid transformation is exposing organizations to new layers of forensic risk — from AI-driven cyberattacks to complex compliance demands. 

Regional data shows that while opportunities are booming, vulnerabilities are growing just as fast.

Saudi Arabia’s decade of transformation is compressing decades of progress into a few short years, creating both immense opportunity and unprecedented forensic challenges.




AI is transforming the forensic landscape, helping investigators detect fraud, cyberattacks, and compliance risks faster and with greater precision across Saudi Arabia’s digital economy. (StockCake)

According to PwC’s Capital Projects and Infrastructure Survey 2025 (Middle East), 63 percent of executives in the region reported cost overruns or delays linked to governance and procurement weaknesses, highlighting the difficulty of managing megaprojects at scale. 

Meanwhile, the Global Economic Crime Survey 2024 found that 46 percent of organizations globally experienced fraud, corruption, or economic crime within the past two years — a figure that mirrors rising regional trends.

“The forensic landscape in the Middle East is evolving at a formidable pace,” said Rana Shasha’a, PwC Middle East forensic leader. “The sheer scale of investment in megaprojects and infrastructure programs brings exposure to procurement fraud, conflicts of interest, and delivery risks.”




Rana Shasha’a, PwC Middle East Forensic Leader, says the region’s shift toward AI-powered forensics marks a cultural and strategic turning point in how organizations manage risk and build trust. (linked.in)

Artificial intelligence has transformed both business operations and criminal tactics. PwC’s Global Digital Trust Insights: Middle East 2025 shows that 70 percent of Middle East executives believe GenAI has already increased their cyber risk exposure, compared to 55 percent globally.

“AI is augmenting business capabilities at an incredible pace, but the same technology is being weaponized by cybercriminals,” Shasha’a said. “We’re now seeing scalable, hyper-personalized attacks — from GenAI-powered phishing to identity theft and disinformation campaigns.”

Recent high-profile attacks across the region have demonstrated that cybercrime can ripple through entire supply chains, inflicting reputational and financial damage far beyond the initial breach. Forensic investigators, she explained, are now required to navigate AI-enabled crimes that demand new technical depth and speed.

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With billions invested in Vision 2030 projects — from giga-developments to fintech expansion — Saudi regulators are tightening oversight.

“Nazaha is driving a national anti-fraud strategy, SAMA is raising standards on financial fraud and cyber controls, the CMA is pushing for stronger governance and disclosure, and the new data protection law is reshaping how evidence and personal data are handled,” said Shasha’a.

These measures signal that compliance is no longer a tick-box exercise. PwC’s Global Compliance Survey 2025 found that 85 percent of executives say compliance requirements have become more complex in the past three years, and 82 percent plan to invest more in technology to automate compliance.

For organizations, this means embedding forensic readiness into operations — from procurement checks to contract oversight — to detect and mitigate risks before they escalate.




Stronger governance frameworks, new data laws, and national anti-fraud strategies are reshaping how Saudi regulators and organizations safeguard integrity in the AI era. (lawdit.co.uk)

Not all sectors face the same threats. Shasha’a noted that financial services and fintech remain prime targets for cyberattacks, while energy and infrastructure projects carry high procurement and contractor-related risks.

“Family businesses, which are central to Middle Eastern economies, often have less formal governance structures and greater reliance on related-party transactions, leaving them exposed if transparency is lacking,” she said.

Beyond industry boundaries, reputational risk remains constant. “A single breach or fraud can quickly become a crisis of trust,” she warned.

As technology reshapes the threat landscape, it is also revolutionizing how forensic experts respond. Forensic teams across the region now rely on AI-driven anomaly detection to sift through millions of records in hours rather than weeks — a leap that has already exposed previously undetectable fraud schemes.

“AI can connect far more data points than any human team,” Shasha’a explained. “It’s enabling faster action, sharper prevention, and more resilient risk management.”

DID YOU KNOW?

• AI can analyze millions of records in hours, uncovering fraud schemes previously undetectable.

• Family businesses remain particularly vulnerable due to less formal governance and related-party transactions.

• Forensics is now embedded in governance, shifting from reactive response to proactive risk management.

In cybercrime cases, AI-driven malware analysis and GenAI-powered forensic chatbots are accelerating investigations while uncovering deeper patterns of misconduct. The result is not just faster response times but a proactive model in which digital forensics becomes integral to governance.

The region’s approach to forensics is shifting fundamentally. What was once a reactive field — stepping in after a crisis — is now a core pillar of corporate resilience.

“The role of forensics has expanded beyond crisis response,” Shasha’a said. “Organizations are embedding forensic thinking into governance, using continuous monitoring, anomaly detection, and tighter controls.”




Financial services and fintech firms face growing exposure to AI-enabled fraud and cyber threats, driving demand for advanced forensic tools and real-time risk detection. (netscribes.com)

This evolution is cultural as much as technical. Leadership teams increasingly view prevention as cheaper and more strategic than remediation, and regulators reinforce this mindset through stricter disclosure and cyber-resilience requirements.

Across the region, the forensic transformation is not just about compliance — it’s about trust.

“The future of forensics in the Middle East will be defined by scale, sophistication, and integration,” Shasha’a concluded. 

“Forensics will no longer be a separate response function; it will be built into governance, compliance, and transformation programs as a frontline defense.”

As Saudi Arabia and its neighbors continue to digitize at record speed, the ability to anticipate and neutralize risks will determine which organizations thrive and which fall behind.

 


UAE’s residential real estate market to see softer home sales

Updated 21 February 2026
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UAE’s residential real estate market to see softer home sales

  • Moody’s sees mild softening of prices over the next 12 - 8 months as rising completions add supply

RIYADH: The UAE’s residential real estate market is expected to see a modest decline in developer sales and a mild softening of prices over the next 12 to 18 months as rising completions add supply, Moody’s said.

Despite near-term easing, the credit ratings agency noted that developers are supported by strong revenue backlogs and solid financial positions, while regulatory measures have reduced banks’ exposure to the construction and property sectors, helping to preserve robust solvency and liquidity buffers across the financial system.

The broader trend is reflected in the UAE’s real estate market, which recorded a strong performance during the first three quarters of 2025, according to Markaz.

In Dubai, transaction values increased 28.3 percent year on year to 554.1 billion Emirati dirhams ($150.88 billion), while Abu Dhabi recorded total sales of 58 billion dirhams, up 75.8 percent year on year. The number of transactions in Abu Dhabi rose 42.3 percent to 15,800.

The report said: “After five years of extraordinary growth in the UAE’s residential real estate market, particularly in Dubai, we expect developer sales to decline modestly and some price softening over the next 12 to 18 months as rising completions add supply. 

“From 2026 to 2028, around 180,000 new units will be completed in Dubai, a significant increase from prior years that is likely to weigh on demand and slow price growth. 

“However, fundamentals remain supportive, underpinned by continued population growth and an influx of high-net-worth individuals. Rated developers’ credit quality will remain resilient, supported by strong revenue backlogs, front-loaded payment plans and solid financial positions.”

Munir Al-Daraawi, founder and CEO of Dubai-based Orla Properties, told Arab News the Moody’s report underscores what the firm is seeing on the ground, namely “a market that is successfully transitioning from a period of extraordinary growth to one of sustainable stability.”

He added: “While a mild softening of prices and a modest decline in sales are anticipated over the next 12 to 18 months, these are natural adjustments for a maturing global hub like Dubai.” 

Al-Daraawi believes the the projected delivery of 180,000 units between 2026 and 2028 is not a cause for concern, but “a reflection of the UAE’s long-term appeal to high-net-worth individuals and a growing population.”   

The CEO added: “The report rightly points out that fundamentals remain supportive, underpinned by Dubai’s 2040 Urban Master Plan and a significant influx of global talent.” 

He went on to note that the resilience of the sector is further bolstered by the solid financial positions of developers and the strong regulatory measures that have shielded the banking sector from excessive exposure.

“This creates a robust ecosystem where credit quality remains high, even as we navigate a more competitive landscape. For boutique and luxury-focused developers, the current environment emphasizes the importance of quality, execution, and strategic capital allocation — factors that will continue to define the UAE’s real estate success story,” said Al-Daraawi. 

The current environment emphasizes the importance of quality, execution, and strategic capital allocation.

Munir Al-Daraawi, Founder and CEO of Orla Properties

Riad Gohar, co-founder and CEO of BlackOak Real Estate, told Arab News that while Moody’s is correct to say that supply is rising, the conclusion of a broad slowdown ignores the structure of this current economic cycle.

He added: “First, this is not a debt-fueled market. Around 83 percent of Dubai residential transactions in 2024 and 2025 were non-mortgaged. That means the market is equity-driven, not credit-driven. When cycles are not built on leverage, corrections are typically shallow and segmented, not systemic. “

He added that the macroeconomic backdrop is stronger than in past cycles, driven by sustained non-oil gross domestic product increase, structural reforms, population growth, and capital inflows aligned with long-term national plans.

“Demand is not purely speculative; it is driven by migration, business formation, and wealth relocation,” the CEO said.

“Third, prime vs. non-prime must be separated. Any pressure from increased completions is more likely to affect marginal locations, not established prime areas supported by global HNWI inflows. Historically, prime assets in Dubai have shown resilience even during broader market pauses,” Gohar added.

He continued to clarify that for smaller developers, some may feel margin compression if sales moderate, but this becomes a consolidation phase, not a systemic risk.

“Banks’ real estate exposure has already declined to around 12 percent of total loans — from 19 percent in 2021 — and NPLs (non-performing loans) are low at 2.9 percent, meaning financial contagion risk is limited. Regulatory escrow structures and stricter oversight further reduce spillover,” the CEO said.

“We are in a capital-rich, cash-driven cycle, regulated market with strong GDP and population growth. If anything, weaker fringe players exiting would strengthen the core not destabilize it,” he said.

The Moody’s report highlighted that while most developers it rates will generate “substantial excess cash” over the next two to three years, there will be fewer opportunities to make significant investments, especially within the Dubai real estate market.

As well as prompting a shift toward corporate governance and, in particular, how developers deploy their rising liquidity, some firms are looking to diversify beyond their core business models.

“For instance, Binghatti has recently launched its first master-planned villa community, marking a departure from its historical focus on single-plot high-rise developments, as demand for villas continues to outperform that for apartments,” said the report.

It continued: “Others are looking beyond Dubai and the UAE for growth, whether through geographic diversification or expansion into unrelated sectors.

“For example, Damac’s owner, Hussain Sajwani, has announced significant planned investments in data center development across the US and Europe.

“Emaar continues to develop actively in Egypt and India and is evaluating potential entry into China and the US. Aldar has started development projects in the UK and Egypt, while Arada has begun building in Australia and the UK and Sobha is expanding into the US.”