IMF raises Saudi growth forecast to 4% for 2025 and 2026 

International Monetary Fund Chief Communications Officer Jose Luis De Haro, speaks during the “World Economic Outlook” press briefing during the IMF/World Bank annual meetings in Washington, DC on Oct. 14, 2025. AFP
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Updated 14 October 2025
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IMF raises Saudi growth forecast to 4% for 2025 and 2026 

RIYADH: The International Monetary Fund has raised Saudi Arabia’s economic growth forecast to 4 percent for both 2025 and 2026. 

In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF upgraded the Kingdom’s 2025 projection from the 3.6 percent it forecast in July, along with an estimate of 3.9 percent for 2026.

The IMF’s updated forecast is broadly in line with projections from other institutions. The World Bank this month said the Saudi economy will expand 3.2 percent in 2025, accelerating to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 4.4 percent in 2027. In September, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development also raised its 2026 growth estimate for the Kingdom to 3.9 percent from 2.5 percent. 

Globally, the IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026. 

In its latest report, the institution said: “Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is projected to accelerate, from 2.6 percent in 2024 to 3.5 percent in 2025 and to 3.8 percent in 2026.” 

The IMF said the forecast largely reflects developments in Gulf Cooperation Council countries, in particular Saudi Arabia.

The report also noted that Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain an annual inflation rate of 2.1 percent in 2025 and 2 percent in 2026. 

Regional outlook 

The Middle East and North Africa region is expected to post economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2025, rising to 3.7 percent in 2026. 

The IMF projected that the UAE economy will expand by 4.8 percent in 2025 and 5 percent in 2026. 

Qatar is forecast to grow 2.9 percent this year before accelerating to 6.1 percent in 2026. 

Following a slowdown in 2024, Kuwait’s economy is set to rebound in 2025, with growth projected at 2.6 percent. 

The IMF added that both Oman and Bahrain are expected to grow by 2.9 percent in 2025. 

Global outlook 

The IMF attributed the stronger global outlook to several factors, noting that growth is now projected at 3.2 percent this year and 3.1 percent next year. 

The fund said prospects have improved “thanks to the agility of the private sector, which front-loaded imports in the first half of the year and speedily reorganized supply chains to redirect trade flows.” 

It also cited the negotiation of new trade deals between various countries and the US, along with restraint from much of the world, which has largely kept the trading system open. 

Among advanced economies, the US is projected to grow 2 percent in 2025 and 2.1 percent in 2026, while the UK is expected to expand 1.3 percent in both years. 

In emerging markets, India leads with growth of 6.6 percent in 2025 and 6.2 percent in 2026, while the Chinese economy is forecast to expand 4.8 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively.


UAE non-oil business growth at 1-year high in February: PMI report

Updated 04 March 2026
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UAE non-oil business growth at 1-year high in February: PMI report

RIYADH: The growth of the non-oil private sector in the UAE ticked up to a 12-month high in February, driven by rapid increases in business activity and new work orders, an economic tracker showed.

In its latest Purchasing Managers’ Index report, S&P Global revealed that the UAE’s PMI rose to 55 in February from 54.9 in January.

Any PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 reflects contraction.

The upturn of the non-oil private sector in the UAE aligns with the broader trend observed in the Gulf Cooperation Council region, where countries, including Saudi Arabia, are pursuing economic diversification efforts to reduce reliance on crude revenues.

In January, the Kingdom’s PMI stood at 56.3, the highest in the region, while Kuwait recorded a reading of 54.5.

“The UAE PMI signalled the strongest growth in non-oil business conditions for a year in February, with output increasing rapidly in response to strong inflows of new work. So far, the data points to an encouraging picture for the domestic economy in the first quarter of this year,” said David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

According to the report, stronger output among non-oil sectors was driven by higher demand, successful contract wins, and growth in key sectors including construction, real estate, logistics, and technology.

Additional factors that contributed to this growth include rising tourist arrivals, the expansion of e-commerce channels, and growing demand for AI-related products.

While international orders also contributed to the expansion of the non-oil sector, the increase in export sales remained modest, suggesting that sales growth was mainly driven by domestic demand.

The analysis highlighted that employment numbers rose modestly in February, marking the largest uplift since last November.

UAE non-oil businesses successfully increased their inventories of purchased inputs for the second month running, supported by another rapid improvement in supplier delivery times.

Regarding the future outlook, non-oil firms in the UAE expressed optimism, although the level of confidence declined from the recent high in January.

“The outlook is positive, as demand has continued to pressure business capacity, suggesting additional expansions in output and employment may be necessary,” added Owen.

In the same report, S&P Global revealed that Dubai’s PMI slipped to 54.6 in February from 55.9 observed in January.

Rates of output and new order growth lost momentum, but remained sharp overall, with firms highlighting increased opportunities and new projects.

The release highlighted that demand was also lifted by various factors, including marketing activities, AI adoption, population growth and increased tourism.