Saudi-Pakistan defense pact can help Islamabad stabilize economy, increase exports—analysts

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif shake hands in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, September 17, 2025. (Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS)
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Updated 18 September 2025
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Saudi-Pakistan defense pact can help Islamabad stabilize economy, increase exports—analysts

  • Pakistan, Saudi Arabia signed defense pact on Wednesday pledging aggression against one country would be treated as attack on both
  • Defense analyst says Saudi Arabia could buy JF-17 Thunder fighter jets from Pakistan amid increasing bilateral defense collaboration

KARACHI: Pakistan’s recent defense pact with Saudi Arabia can help Islamabad stabilize its economy via increased jobs, sharing of technology and exports to the Kingdom, defense and economic experts said on Thursday. 

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia on Wednesday signed a “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” pledging that aggression against one country would be treated as an attack on both, a move that will enhance joint deterrence and strengthen decades of military and security cooperation. The accord comes at a time of extreme volatility in the Middle East, where prolonged conflicts have heightened fears of wider instability, reinforcing the urgency Gulf states place on stronger security and defense partnerships.

It also takes place as Pakistan looks to escape a prolonged macroeconomic crisis that forced it to secure loan packages from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Saudi Arabia has bailed Pakistan out of financial troubles over the years, extending loans to the South Asian country and providing it oil against deferred payments. 

Mushahid Hussain Syed, former chairperson of the Senate Standing Committee on Defense, noted that enhanced defense ties between the two allies could have positive implications for Pakistan’s economy. 

“Yes, both Muslim brotherly countries are leveraging their respective strengths in this historic pact: Pakistan’s military capability and Saudi Arabia’s economic strength,” Syed told Arab News.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has attempted to increase Pakistan’s GDP and sought help from IMF loans to keep Pakistan’s fragile economy afloat. Pakistan, which exported goods and services worth $32 billion last fiscal year, holds an exhibition in Karachi every two years to increase its defense and military exports. 

The JF-17 Thunder, a multi-role fighter jet co-developed by Pakistan and China, is one such fighter jet that was showcased in the exhibition last year.

Syed said it was likely the Kingdom could buy the fighter jets from Pakistan. 

“Saudi Arabia has close ties with China so JF-17 Thunder sales can also be on the agenda, given the triangular Pakistan-KSA-China partnership,” Syed said. 

Asked if Pakistan could expect some economic relief from the Kingdom in the form of deferred oil payments and loans going forward, Syed said it “should be expected.”

“KSA has helped out Pakistan economically in the past,” he said. 

Khurram Schehzad, adviser to Pakistan’s finance minister, did not respond to Arab News’ queries. 

’FERTILE LAND, LABOR AND REMITTANCES’

Khaqan Najeeb, former finance adviser to Pakistan’s finance ministry, said the pact had formalized decades of ties and opened space for deeper trade and investment between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. 

“For Saudi Arabia, Pakistan offers fertile land, skilled labor and potential food security links,” Najeeb noted. “For Pakistan, Riyadh is its top remittance source and a critical investor,” he added. 

He said the defense agreement is in line with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 program and gives Pakistan a chance to stabilize its economy “through jobs, capital, and technology.” 

Asked if Pakistan was expected to receive an investment pledge from Saudi Arabia, similar to the US which had secured a pledge of $600 million from the Kingdom earlier this year, Najeeb pointed out that Islamabad and Riyadh had signed agreements worth $2.8 billion in October 2024. 

The finance expert, however, warned that transforming those agreements into “real projects” was a challenge for Pakistan amid the country’s regulatory and fiscal strains. 

“Effective follow-throughs can move the relationship beyond short-term bailouts toward a durable, security-backed economic partnership,” Najeeb noted. 

PAKISTAN STOCKS RALLY

Buoyed by the defense pact, investor confidence surged in Pakistan’s stock market during trading on Thursday. Pakistan’s benchmark KSE-100 Index rose by over one percent and closed at a record 157,953 points, with analysts attributing the rally to Wednesday’s pact. 

“The market touched all-time high after Pak-Saudi pact which is likely to ease (Islamabad’s) financial burden as Pak-Saudi relations improve,” Ahsan Mehanti, CEO at Arif Habib Commodities, told Arab News.

He said investors were expecting Pakistan to receive economic support from Saudi Arabia following the pact. 

Leading brokerage house Topline Securities agreed.

“The bulls stampeded across the trading floor today as the local bourse surged on the back of a landmark development— the signing of the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan,” Topline Securities said in a statement. 


IMF staff to visit Pakistan Feb. 25 for key loan reviews as reforms stabilize economy

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IMF staff to visit Pakistan Feb. 25 for key loan reviews as reforms stabilize economy

  • Talks to cover third review under $7 billion bailout and climate resilience program
  • Analysts warn tax shortfall, power tariff cuts could face scrutiny by lender 

KARACHI: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team will visit Pakistan from Feb. 25 to begin discussions on key program reviews, the lender said on Thursday, as authorities seek to lock in recent economic stabilization after a prolonged financial crisis.

The talks will cover the third review under Pakistan’s $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) bailout and the second review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), which supports countries dealing with climate vulnerabilities.

Pakistan has spent the past year implementing tough fiscal and structural reforms — including tax increases, subsidy cuts and a tighter monetary policy — to stabilize a fragile economy that faced record inflation, dwindling foreign reserves and default fears in 2023.

“We do have a staff team that is expected to visit Pakistan starting February 25th for discussions on the third review under the EFF and the second review under the RSF,” IMF communications director Julie Kozack said at a regular press briefing.

The IMF says the program aims to restore macroeconomic stability, rebuild external buffers and make Pakistan more resilient to climate shocks following devastating floods in recent years.

Kozack said Pakistan’s policy implementation had already produced measurable improvements.

“Pakistan’s policy efforts under the EFF have helped stabilize the economy and rebuild confidence,” she said.

She noted fiscal indicators were improving in line with program targets.

“Pakistan currently has a primary fiscal surplus of 1.3 percent of GDP in FY25, which was in line with program targets. Headline inflation has been relatively contained. And Pakistan posted its first current account surplus in 14 years in FY2025.”

Pakistani authorities have also cited improving macroeconomic trends. 

Governor State Bank of Pakistan Jameel Ahmad has said growth could reach about 4.75 percent in the fiscal year ending June, while inflation, which peaked above 38 percent in May 2023, has fallen sharply over the past year following interest rate hikes and fiscal tightening.

The IMF official added that governance reforms remain a major component of the program.

“The governance and corruption diagnostic assessment report was recently published,” Kozack said.

“It includes proposals for reforms, including simplifying tax policy design, levelling the playing field for public procurement, and improving the asset declaration transparency.”

The upcoming review will determine whether Pakistan remains eligible for continued disbursements under the bailout program and help reinforce investor confidence.

Analysts say the review is likely to pass but may involve difficult negotiations on fiscal discipline and energy policy.

“This is expected to be a smooth sailing, however questions might arise,” Shankar Talreja, head of research at Karachi-based Topline Securities Limited, told Arab News.

Experts say the IMF could question whether Islamabad consulted the lender before reducing electricity tariffs by about Rs4 per unit for export-oriented industries, a move designed to support manufacturing but with fiscal implications.

He also flagged a revenue gap.

“Pakistan has missed” the IMF’s revenue target by Rs336 billion ($1.2 billion), he said.

“Tax revenue shortfall which is one of the indicative targets which Pakistan has missed.”

Muhammad Waqas Ghani, head of research at JS Global Capital Limited., said the next review may be “tough”:

“Although (Pakistan’s) macroeconomic indicators have improved since the start of the program, the IMF is still expected to press firmly on energy reforms and circular debt before clearing the next tranche, which the government is likely to secure after tough negotiations.”